There can be no let-down on this sensitive issue at a time UPA’s record on ever so many things is already under assault from BJP, the belligerent rival whose prime ministerial candidate Mr Narendra Modi’s vituperative campaign is aimed at turning the tide against the Congress-led Government. The food security legislation had in fact the support of BJP and any indiscretion at Bali would be pounced upon by BJP.

The Bali Conference, the 9th at the ministerial-level, attended by trade ministers from 159 member-countries, is indeed designed to restore the relevance and efficacy of the World Trade Organisation, at a time multilateralism itself is in peril with the Doha Round collapse and the explosive growth of bilateral, plurilateral and regional free trade agreements among both developed and developing nations.

Trade facilitation to bring down costs of global trade across borders is the major goal at Bali. This is broadly agreed upon at the Trade Negotiating Committee negotiations in Geneva in November. Also there is accord on developed and major developing countries including India and China on extending maximum concessions for imports from the least developed countries (LDCs).

But domestic support to agriculture in developing countries is the most contentious issue on the agenda, one of the principal issues which defied solution over years in the tortuous negotiations, which left the Doha Development Round paralysed. This Round is now sought to be given a new life through the Bali Conference with an accord on agriculture along with Trade Facilitation which would give a boost to global trade and to WTO itself.

Commerce Minister Mr Anand Sharma has declared there would be no compromise on the stand of the group of G-33 developing countries spearheaded by India against the demand of richer developed country exporters of agricultural products to scale down the present levels of support to farmers in the low-income countries which they consider trade-distortive. It is non-negotiable, he said.

These countries have rejected any further reduction in the level of support which is already limited to 10 per cent, for the millions of subsistence farmers. That there would be no compromise on this issue of livelihood of farmers has been reiterated by Commerce Minister Mr Anand Sharma, whether in terms of support prices or food subsidy and stock-holding to meet the food requirements of the bulk of the country’s population.

This single issue, if pressed by the developed countries further, would lead to a deadlock and Bali would be deprived of significant results. But trade facilitation and LDC concessions could make up for the gains at Bali and help WTO’s new Director-General Roberto Azevedo (Brazil) to carry forward the Doha Round negotiations. He had said a successful meeting at Bali would provide “ a much needed shot in the arm for the global economy and the WTO.

Mr Sharma has also said that India, as a staunch upholder of multilateralism, would look for a “fair and balanced” outcome at Bali, which addresses the concerns of developing countries. India has agreed on the elements of Trade Facilitation except in regard to courier services. It is also meeting 96 per cent of the requirements for tariff-free and quota-free entry of goods from LDCs. But there would be no compromise on the issues of support to farmers.

The Bali Conference is no doubt a critical test for WTO’S effectiveness as guardian of rule-based international trade in goods and services. Global trade suffered a slump in the aftermath of the international financial crisis of 2008 and recession, and the volume growth moderated in world trade, which totalled 18 trillion dollars in 2012.

Director-General of WTO Roberto Azevedo , who recently succeeded Mr Pascal Lamy, who was frustrated with the lack of progress in the Doha Round and viewed regional trade agreements as aberration of WTO rules and disciplines, is making earnest efforts to persuade all member-countries to work together to bring about a successful outcome at Bali.

On agriculture, there has been a new development inasmuch a “peace deal” has been agreed on in principle, namely, that for four years the developing countries could retain their present levels of support and subsidy to farmers whereafter they would have to bring down the total support to five per cent of the value of agricultural produce in conformity with new WTO norms. India’s efforts along with developing countries are aimed at making this four-year concession a permanent feature.

Indonesia’s Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan, Chairman of the 9th Ministerial Conference, has also cautioned that multilateralism would be in danger unless Bali produced significant results. “If no agreement can be reached in Bali, the spirit of multilateral trade will be at risk”, he said prior to the start of Ministerial Meeting.

The Trade Facilitation deal is designed to cut costs of global trading equivalent to about seven per cent of the total value of goods crossing borders, by streamlining customs procedures globally and would also bring significant economic and development gains. But clinching an accord on support to agriculture in favour of developing countries would be the real challenge in Bali, at the risk of failure of the Conference.

Even a limited agreement covering trade facilitation and LDCs is viewed by many developing countries as a positive outcome at present for the Bali Conference and future work of WTO. Director-General Roberto Azevedo of Brazil has said that a setback at Bali would have “profoundly negative consequences” and compromise the ability of WTO to negotiate future agreements.

The Bali Conference has already come under attacks from NGOs and other civil society groups defending interests of farmers, trade unions and consumers. The developing countries view the Bali Meeting as an opportunity to overcome the imbalance in the pre-WTO agreement on agriculture of 1994 which they hold to have been skewed in favour of the richer countries. That agreement limited farm subsidies to 10 per cent of production value.

With a few sticking points on Trade Facilitation such as customs clearance having been sorted out, and also agreement on LDCs, India hopes for a spirit of accommodation at Bali to the genuine concerns of relatively poorer developing countries over safeguarding the livelihood of their farmers on subsistence levels.

In any case, India is not willing to go by any interim relief for developing countries such as the ‘peace clause’ which would not change the “mercantilist ambition” of rich nations, Mr Sharma has said. There could be no permanent and interim solutions while striking a deal and any “interim” solution implied that it would be made permanent. On this and other trade-related issues, BRICs have no unified position.

China is the world’s largest exporter already with its own network of trade deals, and also seeks to find a place in other regional free trade deals, especially the Trans-Pacific Trade Initiative of President Obama limited to 11 Pacific countries other than China. For its part, India has its own major free trade agreements with ASEAN and keeps negotiating more FTAs across Asia-Pacific region, notwithstanding its oft-declared faith in and commitment to multilateralism embodied by WTO. (IPA Service)