Now the party is apprehensive of a reprisal from the opposition alliance if they rise to state power through the election which they may very well do if there is a fair one, not riding on the war crime trial issue rather banking on AL government’s poor governance, dismal counter corruption efforts and below average developmental records in last five years. Most alleged and now many convicted war criminals are from the Islamist chief ally of the main opposition, including some from the main opposition itself.

Some suspect that the AL’s scraping of election time Care Taker Government (CTG) from the constitution was aimed at gaining administrative advantage while they perform the role of CTG in the amended system. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of former prime minister Begum Khaleda Zia is the proponent and believer of this idea along, with their allies including their chief ally, the religion-based rightwing party Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). The latter is considerably stronger in organisational strength in spite of their significantly smaller share of popular vote. Recent strikes, political clashes and resultant destructions and loss of lives came from this context.

The AL has its own excuse about abandoning the CTG. It cites the example of the last CTG, which stayed in power for two years instead of supposed six months. But at the back of AL top brass’ mind, there could very well be this sense that they need to be in the helm of power as they have unfinished business from their last mandate which also form part of their vision of Bangladesh, which is the one without the killers and collaborators of 1971.

BNP is surely a much more moderate party than their junior ally JI. It makes more use of Islamic symbolism than AL but doesn’t advocate Sharia Law like JI and few other smaller Islamists. But their political strategy of betting too much on CTG rather than fair election (with extensive international monitoring) is also under question in terms of political wisdom. Because that allows the AL to legally go for an election even if they don’t participate. The AL might very well have that in mind despite saying otherwise publicly.

The international actors are also in a tricky situation. The Americans normally don’t want to adopt an approach towards the political crisis in Bangladesh that conflicts with the one of India. But the Monmohan Sing government, despite Khaleda Zia’s visit to India and assurance of not letting any anti-Indian activity from Bangladeshi soil anymore, don’t appear to have much tool to pressurise the stubborn Sheikh Hasina. This lack of leverage could be partly due to the Congress government’s recent inability to deliver on key Indo-Bangla issues like Tista water sharing and exchange of border enclaves due to its own domestic political limitations. Therefore the apparent US will to exert some more pressure on the incumbents in Bangladesh may or may not get materialized.

Then situation is Bangladesh is perfectly fluid now. Which direction would it take is anybody’s guess. Obviously a lot will depend on the two prime factors. One is how worse and out of hand situation becomes domestically and the other being the level of involvement of the big international actors. Nonetheless, a widespread turmoil in the populous Muslim majority nation may have grave national and regional implications. Honest and combined efforts, starting immediately, of all stakeholders could actually make real difference in solving this unwanted political deadlock of this suffering nation. (IPA Service)