Congress President Ms.Sonia Gandhi has begun to realize that the party faces its toughest battle in 2014, and unlike the past, she is up against major problems in the important southern region – Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. The Congress-DMK alliance having unravelled, the faction-ridden Tamil Nadu Congress has to face its biggest test of strength in a lonely battle to assert its national role.

The picture as emerging at present is there would be multi-cornered contests in Tamil Nadu, not as in the past between two well-knit alliances led by DMK and AIDMK. The only successful state party to make the grade is DMDK of Capt.Vijaykant, which is now being courted both by DMK and the Congress. In the 2011 assembly elections, it displaced DMK to become the leading opposition with a tally of 29 seats as against DMK's 23. .

The general councils of the principal Dravidian parties, which have alternately ruled Tamil Nadu for 45 years, have authorised their leaders to decide on any poll alliance with any of the state-level parties or at the national level. Where there are no pre-poll alliances, there are always post-poll possibilities open for the leading party to craft a majority through a coalition or support from outside.

The BJP is no longer unthinkable for political alliance for DMK which has all along touted its secularism. Mr Karunanidhi had praised BJP prime ministerial candidate Mr Narendra Modi as a 'good person' and for his ability as an administrator. But after his party meetings, Mr Karunanidhi said DMK would steer clear of both the Congress and the BJP and would go to polls with “our existing allies” (two state outfits with marginal role including VCK and Chennai-based IUML, “Indian Union Muslim League”) But the wily DMK Leader can still be open for a deal with a BJP-led Front or even a Congress-led front after the poll, in whichever way the wind blows, so long as he can press his claims in government formation.

Though Chief Minister Ms.Jayalalithaa has had cordial relations with Mr Modi - both exchanging visits at their respective oath-taking ceremonies after elections in state capitals - she has from the beginning taken a firm stand that on AIDMK participating only in a non-Congress, non-BJP alliance at the Centre.

This should keep the door open for any move by her at the national level should a viable 'third force' emerge in the aftermath of the elections. It is in this view that the AIDMK general council at its meeting on December 19 said that the 'time is ripe now for a Tamil (Ms.Jayalalithaa) to lead the country', and authorised its leader to take all decisions including on forming a coalition.

Ms.Jayalalithaa has said the alliance issue would be decided 'when the time comes'. For the AIDMK,'only Amma (Ms.Jayalalithaa) can turn the world's largest democracy into a most powerful state'. The party council has assumed that AIDMK would register a stunning victory securing almost all of the 40 seats. Commenting on her party resolutions at the general council meeting, Ms.Jayalalithaa said it was the cadres' wish that she should lead the Government at the Centre though there was no mention of 'Prime Minister' in the resolution.'I can't say anything on that' she said,

Ms.Jayalalitha asked her partymen to work hard to ensure a cent percent victory for AIDMK which alone would assure the country's progress and security. 'Peace, Prosperity and Progress ' would be the promise of the party and the theme of her campaign.

Even assuming AIDMK emerges as a formidable force in the State's Lok Sabha elections, there are other imponderables in the post-poll situation. Much would depend on how the two national parties would fare at the end of it all, with all their alliances, and if only neither of them could be within reach of the magical figure of 272 for majority in the new Lok Sabha, the other parties of the so-called third force would come into calculation.

Certainly, a stunning victory by AIDMK would give Ms.Jayalalithaa a commanding voice in the post-poll scenario but among regional parties, there are ambitious rivals for the highest office and she would have to become the consensus choice of the third force duly authorised to stake claim for forming the next Government. The JD (S) leader and former Prime Minister Mr.Deve Gowda on a recent visit to the state, noted that in the changing political situation, Ms.Jayalalithaa stood a better chance to become the next PM if there is favourable political mobilisation for her. He would fully support her candidature, he said.

The DMK leader was asked whether his party would project a candidate for the Prime Ministership. Mr Karunanidhi coolly said, 'We know our limitations. We do not aim for things beyond our reach'. At the same time, by contesting for all the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, DMK has two objectives, one hopefully to neutralise to the extent possible the AIDMK's gains and, more importantly, to galvanise itself for the ousting of the Jayalalithaa government at the next state elections in 2016.

The left parties, CPI(M) and CPI, have agreed to join an AIDMK-led alliance for the Lok Sabha election The DMK would have gained significantly had it been able to tie up with the DMDK of Captain Vijay Kant, which has established a sizeable electoral base in Tamil Nadu and currently the principal opposition in the State Assembly.

DMDK had always favoured to position itself in a Congress-led alliance for Lok Sabha elections but Cap.Vijay Kant was upset over the Congress extending support to Ms.Kanimozhi (DMK) who got elected to the Rajya Sabha, while his party nominee lost. The Congress would be likely to make stronger approaches and seek to arrive at an understanding.

BJP in Tamil Nadu had all these years remained electorally a non-entity with not a single seat in any of the assembly elections. With a morale boost from a visit to Tamil Nadu of BJP prime ministerial candidate Mr Narendra Modi, it has now begun exploring the possibility of building an alliance in an attempt to secure some seats to add up in BJP's favour. The PMK of Dr Ramadoss and MDMK of Mr Vaiko have agreed to be in this alliance.

The central leadership of the Congress, grappling with a host of more urgent challenges at the moment, has little time to take any serious note of developments pointing to its isolation in Tamil Nadu where its alliance with DMK in 2004 and 2009 elections paid off handsomely to usher in UPA rule at the Centre. Although the TN Congress Committee was recently reconstituted by central leadership, there is no truce yet between the rival factions led by Mr P Chidambaram and G K Vasan respectively. Ms.Sonia Gandhi has first to ensure that her partymen inTamil Nadu remain solidly together to confront the powerful Dravidian formations, even if she is able to cobble together an alliance with parties like DMDK of Capt. Vijaykant, who is leader of opposition in the T N Assembly. (IPA)