The Congress High Command, at whose behest the reshuffle of the cabinet has been effected, thinks it would be a game-changer. The High Command calculates that, with Ramesh occupying his rightful place in the Cabinet, the communal balance has been restored, and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) will perform well in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

The ground realities, however, tell a different tale. The immediate upshot of the exercise could well be a sharpening of the group rivalry which has been the bane of the Congress in the state.

Just one instance is enough to show the shape of things to come. One of Chennithala’s first acts after taking over as the Home Minister has been to banish top cop T P Senkumar from the Intelligence Department to Prisons as DGP. It is an open secret that Senkumar is the blue-eyed boy of Chief Minister Oommen Chandy. Obviously, Chennithala does not want a CM’s confidant as the head of the State Intelligence department. Hence the abrupt transfer of the officer to the prisons department.

The development represents a severe setback for the Chief Minister, who heads the dominant group in the Congress. Ramesh’s induction into the cabinet denotes a clear message for Chandy that his days as the monarch of all that he surveys are over. Ramesh’s entry into the cabinet represents the emergence of a parallel power centre in the Government. The first indication of the diminished power status of the CM has come in the transfer of his favourite police officer. More is in the pipeline.

If anything, the High command’s damage-control move has come a bit late in the day. It is clear that the fire-fighting measure has been undertaken because of the proximity of the crucial Lok Sabha elections. But will it serve the purpose of ensuring unity in the groupism-plagued party? Past record does not inspire confidence.

This was the formula the High Command had suggested to Oommen Chandy and Ramesh Chennithala a few months back as well. Why the central leadership refused to insist on implementing the formula then is beyond comprehension. If it had put its foot down then, may be things could have improved.

Much depends on who becomes the next Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee president. A few names are doing the rounds for the crucial post. Assembly Speaker G. Karthikeyan seems to be the front-runner. But there is no unanimity on his name. Others who are in the reckoning are V M Sudheeran, Union Minister Mullappally Ramachandran and V D Satheesan. There is growing support for Sudheeran among the Congress leaders, with party MLA T N Prathapan openly lobbying for him. Incidentally, Sudheeran was one of the few leaders whose views were sought by the high command in the matter of sprucing up the image of the party a few months back. But both Chandy and Chennithala may not extend their full support to him as Sudheeran is an unsparing critic of the State Government.

It also remains to be seen whether Ramesh’s becoming the home minister will mollify the powerful Nair community, which is angry with the Oommen Chandy government for its minority appeasement policy. It has been a long-standing demand of the Nair Service Society (NSS), the powerful organisation of the Nairs, that Ramesh be inducted into the cabinet. But Chandy’s stout resistance to the move had alienated the Nairs and, to some extent, the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam, the organization of the Ezhava community. The initial response of the NSS leaders to Ramesh’s entry into the cabinet is anything but encouraging. And that must cause concern to the Congress and the UDF. The NSS seems to think that the move has come too late to undo the damage.

Incidentally, senior Congress leader from Kerala and Union Defence Minister A K Antony had also suggested that Ramesh join the state cabinet right from the beginning. But Chandy had stalled the move. Ironically, the High command dispatched Antony himself, on New Year eve, to ensure the smooth induction of Chennithala in the cabinet! If only Chandy and company had heeded Antony’s sage advice, the considerable erosion of support for the Congress could have been avoided. And the Congress may have to pay a heavy penalty for this serious lapse. (IPA Service)