Muslims are known to have a strong leaning to vote according to identity feelings and they rejected AAP candidates during voting. AAP candidates were relegated to third place in those constituencies. Similarly, AAP candidates were defeated in all bordering constituencies of Delhi, which are dominated by Jats and Gurjars. People belonging to these castes in Delhi, too, are influenced by identity politics and they too, rejected AAP candidates. We can conclude safely that AAP could win, where identity politics was weak and it was defeated, where such caste and community politics was strong.

If AAP could not prosper in those constituencies, where identity of voters matter much, then how can it expect to succeed in Bihar, which is plagued by the politics of caste and community. The main players here are the same. On the one hand, there is BJP and on the other there are RJD led by Lalu Prasad Yadav and JD(U) led by Nitish Kumar. In the caste politics, Nitish Kumar seems to be lagging behind, because his own caste men constitute only 2 percent of Bihar population. Nitish Kumar tried to create a political space for himself by making divisions of other communities. OBCs were divided into OBCs and MBCs right from Karpuri Thakur days, but Nitish gave quota to MBCs population in local body election and he also shifted some castes from OBCs to MBCs to make it more populous. In this way, he tried to emerge as the champion of MBCs.

Nitish also divided Scheduled Castes of Bihar into Dalit and Mahadalit. The caste of Ram Vilas Paswan was categorized as Dalit and the rest of SCs population was termed as Mahadalit. In this way, he created a wedge among Dalits of Bihar to weaken Ram Vilas Paswan and he succeeded in his effort. Now Ram Vilas Paswan is a marginalized leader of Bihar. Nitish started many programs for Mahadalits and became their darling.

Nitish also created a division among Muslims. Majority of Muslims of Bihar were already classified as OBCs and some leaders were fighting for the right of those OBC Muslims. Nitish encouraged them. Two of them were made Rajya Sabha MPs. Since majority of the Muslim OBCs were clubbed as MBCs, so they got benefits of the schemes and programs meant for OBCs. The upper caste Muslims resented the move of Nitish to divide them on caste lines. Anyway, Nitish could not get Muslim votes because of his association with BJP, despite creating caste divisions among them.

Now JD(U) is out of NDA and Lok Sabha election is just a few months away, it is interesting to see where Nitish stands in the caste politics. His labor to create some political space in the caste politics of his state seems to have borne no fruit. There is no doubt that his policies towards MBCs and Mahadalits have resulted into their empowerment. Nitish has also empowered the women of Bihar by giving them 50 percent reservation in local bodies. But some judicial decisions to acquit the accused of massacres of Dalits and MBCs by the army of the landlords have alienated them from Nitish. Laxmanpur Bathe, Bathani Tola and Mianpur are some examples, where the accused of mass murder have been set free by High Court. Though, they were acquitted by High Court and the State Government should not be made responsible for their decisions, the suspicion has arisen that Bihar Government did not pursue those cases in the courts honestly and seriously. These judgments have destroyed the well knit caste politics of Nitish Kumar and Mahadalit and MBCs do not have high opinion about him now.

Bihar has overwhelming OBC population constituting around 66 percent of the total. Out of them 54 percent are Hindu and 12 percent Muslim. Hindu OBCs are going to decide the fate of the next elections and they are eyed by all the three major political forces of Bihar. In Narendra Modi, BJP has found a leader to attract maximum number of these OBC voters. Particularly those OBC voters, who feel cheated by Lalu and Nitish, are rallying behind BJP and this has given an edge to the saffron party. That is why Bihar BJP leaders are over confidant of their good performance and this is the reason, why Lalu Yadav is trying to broad base his alliance to contain in its fold even left parties.

Some leaders of JD(U) were floating the idea of entering into alliance with Aam Aadmi Party. Its lone MLA from Delhi was supporting Arvind Kejriwal government in Delhi and JD(U) leaders were boasting of that support. But now the lone MLA has decided to join AAP and given a big jolt to JD(U) leaders’ dream to have an alliance with the new party. Now JD(U) finds itself alone in Bihar and it has no partner in the state. (IPA Service)