The behaviour of AAP chief minister Arvind Kejriwal and his ministers against anybody, including media, daring to oppose its unruly conduct, is a matter of concern. Their utter disrespect for the Constitution, Constitutional Authorities and administrative procedures is alarming. No wonder that the President in his Republic Day address to the nation had words of caution to the anarchic politics and undeliverable populism of political elements. Instead of pretending that the same is not targeted to them AAP leaders would do well to introspect and give up their exuberance.

The mistake that the inexperienced leaders of the new kid on the block are committing are many. First, they are assuming that only they represent the poor – the underclass according to the current Delhi jargon. The caste-based parties like BSP, RJD or other strong regional leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalithaa or Shibu Soren will not give up their turf as meekly as Congress has done in Delhi. These leaders and parties have cadres who can be as nasty as certain AAP leaders are in Delhi. Unless the party tones down its behavior there might be violence during the election.

Second, AAP did not research deeply into the reason for its unexpected election success in Delhi. The party won the seats where there are large numbers of slums. BJP and Congress could win just a few of such seats where their leaders had done commendable work for the slum dwellers. In contrast, AAP had been actively campaigning in such slum clusters for almost one year. The election success came due to this familiarity with the voters. Can AAP hope to emulate the same in other major cities like say Kolkata?

The third factor that AAP must pay attention to happens to be the characteristics of the slum dwellers that voted for the party. These are mostly unorganised daily wage earners. They came to the city in search of livelihood and face daily struggle from the lower bureaucracy, police and even the local leaders. AAP had been a welcome change for them, a protection from the nagging rent seekers. They voted in favor of the party hoping a trouble free working environment. Will they vote again for the party if they find that their troubles have not eased with the AAP government in Delhi? Do they have the resilience and patience to wait for months hoping that their new leaders will deliver some time? Assuming that this vote bank is stable AAP is spreading itself to other parts of the country. Is this assumption correct?

Fourth, a big mistake AAP has been committing is blindly believing that the polling behaviour of a migrant worker in Delhi and his family members in say UP, Bihar or Bengal will be the same. AAP wink at the fact that their family members have a stake in the village. Many own some land, a place to live in and some occupation. Since the same cannot give enough surpluses to feed the additional members, some of them move over to large cities like Delhi. Those who have a stake in the land they live their behaviour will not be as desperate as many AAP supporters in Delhi exhibit. More importantly, due to their attachment to the land they live in, unlike the migrant workers of Delhi, they will tend to support an established political entity in their native place. If AAP tries to gatecrash, there will be conflict, which might end up in violence. The Election Commission has reasons to worry.

Last, but no less important is the self-professed anarchy that AAP leaders have unleashed in Delhi. In the far-flung centres away from Delhi the local establishment, comprising police, bureaucracy, local media and other influencers, will resist a new force to disrupt the equilibrium they live in. True the equilibrium is an imperfect one but the same is prevailing there over a long period with willy-nilly everybody accepting the same. AAP will require local leaders to break into the system. It will need local issues to attract such leaders. In any case those who have weak links with the established network will only join the party. This will not augur well for the party.

The coalition of the disgruntled that AAP is hoping to build suffers from an inner contradiction. The local activists, often enough, will have differences with a national agenda for governance. The regional parties usually articulate such local aspirations and build a coalition of sorts with the national government. Given the short time and its very nature AAP will not manage to build such local base. Instead its newly recruited leaders will end up imitating the anarchic traits of its leaders in Delhi. Can they get away with such recalcitrant behavior locally? More so will they escape the strong local discordant political forces? AAP must remember none of them is as weak as Congress was in Delhi and will surrender so easily. (IPA Service)