As long as the DMK was the UPA partner, Karunanidhi managed to keep his elder son a minister at the centre while Stalin looked after the state party. Alagiri is flexing his muscles for various reasons. He has been the DMK’s southern commander lording over Madurai and has been jealous of Stalin for a long time. Stalin had been its north Tamil Nadu commander and also the Chennai Mayor earlier. Alagiri has made it clear that he will not accept his younger brother Stalin as his leader. But the party has to have a hierarchy in view of the health and age of its present chief.

While the family quarrel is being fought in the public glare, its political fallout may be serious for the party, which is neither a stakeholder at the Centre nor in the state. The DMK is in a difficult position politically as the Tamil Nadu chief minister and AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa is taking it head on. Faced with the 2G scam and cases against the former DMK minister A Raja and Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi and his wife Dayalu Ammal, the DMK has been on the downslide after its humiliating performance in the 2011 elections. Karunanidhi is getting older (90) and also facing deteriorating health. He has been unable to solve the problem of the rivalry among his children – Alagiri, Stalin and Kanimozhi. While he has all but anointed Stalin as his successor, the other two children want to have their share of the cake. While the daughter has no political muscle, Alagiri is a strong man in the south of Tamil Nadu and has his own followers. This is not the first time Alagiri has raised a banner of revolt. He has been a troublemaker all along while Karunanidhi managed to see that it did not go beyond a point. Alagiri will certainly create problems once he is expelled and damage the party’s chances, which the DMK can ill-afford at this point of time.

For the past 15 years, Stalin was being groomed for the post and the proximity to his father gave him enough clout in the party. Senior party leaders like Arcot Veeraswamy and Anbazhagan had to go along because they were not charismatic leaders.

Above all, the DMK is isolated now that it has pulled out of the UPA government. The Lok Sabha polls may perhaps be the last elections fought under the ageing leader. In the 2004 and 2009, Lok Sabha polls and the 2007 Assembly polls Karunanidhi got his arithmetic right and managed to lead a winning coalition. But 2014 is different as the DMK is looking for elusive partners.

The immediate beneficiary is the ruling AIADMK, as Jayalalithaa will make this a talking point in the elections. Jaya is hoping to become the prime ministerial candidate in the event of a hung parliament. She has already asked the state to give her a birthday gift of 39 seats making no secret of her ambition. She has also got the left parties as her coalition partners. She is open for alliance with the UPA or the NDA only after the polls.

Secondly, the chances of the Congress too will be affected by this factional quarrel in the DMK. The Congress has been wooing the DMK, which has quit the UPA last year. Congress has lost the state since 1967 and has been riding piggyback on either the DMK or the AIADMK. In order to improve the DMK’s prospects Karunanidhi was hoping to rope in DMDK to his side and Alagiri attempted to throw a spanner in the works by opposing it. This has clearly upset the DMK chief.

Dynastic politics is new to Tamil Nadu. Since 1967, the power has been changing hands between the DMK and the AIADMK. Annadurai, who founded the DMK, never named his successor; Karunanidhi, however, was the consensus choice of the party after him. When MGR fought with Karunanidhi and formed the AIADMK, the two veterans ruled alternately until 1987, when MGR died. The two had maintained a respect for each other throughout. Incidentally MGR, too, did not name his successor and after a brief interlude of his wife's rule, the mantle came to Ms J Jayalalithaa. Since then the gaddi is changing hands between Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi. Now perhaps the time has come to see whether the DMK will split or survive in the post Karunanidhi era. (IPA Service)