The Kerala CPI(M) and the Left Democratic Front(LDF) led by it were sitting pretty till the other day confident of reaping a rich harvest in the upcoming electoral battle. But a stroke of the trial court judge’s pen in the TP Chandrashekharan murder case has jolted the party out of its sense of smugness. The political dynamic has altered to the chagrin of the CPI(M) in the wake of the verdict in the murder case in which three CPI(M) leaders have been sentenced to life imprisonment on the charge of political conspiracy to murder. The CPI(M), whose well-orchestrated campaign against the solar scam-tainted United Democratic Front(UDF) government had badly dented the latter’s image and popularity, suddenly finds itself having to do a lot of explaining on the involvement of its leaders in the murder conspiracy.

The verdict, which could not have come at a worse time, is bound to have a bearing on the impending electoral combat. It remains to be seen how crucial it would be. A good performance in the Lok Sabha elections is a must for the CPI(M) to stay as a ‘national party’.

The CPI(M) is trying to make out that the court verdict has disproved the claim of its political rivals that the Chandrashekharan murder was the result of a political conspiracy by the party’s top leadership. In support of its argument the party points out the acquittal of its Kozhikode district committee member P. Mohanan. It is only partially true. The sentencing of three other CPI(M) members – one hailing from Kozhikode district and two from Kannur district – to life imprisonment on the charge of conspiracy to murder has knocked the stuffing out of that argument.

The judgment clearly points an accusing finger at the CPI(M): The seven members of the killer gang were only “tools in the hands of the persons who entertained political animosity towards Chandrashekharan. The motive of the murder was political animosity,” says the verdict. To claim that the party has been absolved of the conspiracy charge in the face of this judgment is to insult the intelligence of the people. That is the crux of the argument advanced by the CPI(M)’s political rivals, including the Congress.

Conversely, the confidence level in the Congress and UDF camp seems to have gone up post TP case verdict. Gone are the apprehensions of a rout; the predominant feeling now in the UDF is that the front is now in a position to make a fight of it. What has further boosted its morale is a survey by the CBN-INN that the UDF is poised to win anything from 12 to 18 seats in the LS polls. However, there are other surveys which say the LDF would bag anything between 8 and 15 seats. Among the sure LDF seats, according to these estimates, are Kasargode, Kozhikode, Vadakara, Palakkad, Alathur, Kollam and Attingal.

The entry of KPCC president Ramesh Chennithala into the state cabinet has had a positive impact on the Congress morale. True, groupism has not become a thing of the past; but the intensity of the infighting has lessened in view of the need to put up a good show in the electoral battle ahead. An added advantage is the perception that the hostility of the Nair Service Society to the UDF has also abated in the wake of Chennithala’s joining the state cabinet as the Home Minister – a long-standing demand of the NSS. That would have a salutary effect on its poll prospects, calculate the Congress and other UDF leaders.

As for the Aam Aadmi Party, the party has made a favourable impression on the enlightened voters of Kerala. However, an impressive AAP debut in the 2014 battle is unlikely. The CNN-IBN survey predicts that, in Kerala, the AAP would poll nearly 5 per cent votes in the LS elections. But the party is certain to make an impact in the long run as it is attracting people from all sections of the society, especially the middle class. A large number of writers and intellectuals have already joined the AAP, raising the anxiety levels in both the UDF and the LDF camps. There is no doubt it would emerge as a force soon with the potential to worst the UDF and the LDF unless both the fronts mend their errant ways.

As if the legal setback is not enough, the CPI(M) has taken another decision which could cause further erosion of its support base. The party has welcomed into its fold hundreds of BJP rebels in Kannur district who had resigned from the party and formed a rebel outfit called the NaMo Vichar Manch. Hundreds of BJP rebels led by veteran party leader from Kannur O K Vasu and Ashokan have joined the CPI(M), disbanding the Manch as well. They were inducted into the party in the presence of State CPI(M) secretary Pinarayi Vijayan.

Understandably, the decision has stirred a hornet’s nest. First to oppose the move was none other than leader of the opposition V S Achuthanandan. VS said these BJP rebels who are ‘Modi’s supporters’ were untrustworthy, and it was politically unwise to welcome them into the party. Achuthanandan reminded the state party leadership that when the CPI(M) tied up with Abdul Nasser Madani’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the last elections, the party’s strength came down from 18 to 4. A similar fate would befall the party if the “Modi supporters’ are inducted into the CPI(M) in the upcoming LS polls, VS warned. Much depends on what stance VS would take after the public censure by the party.

Not only was VS’s warning ignored but he was publicly admonished by the CPI(M) State committee for opposing the party line on the issue. Here also, the CPI(M)’s double standards were clear. While VS was publicly censured, no action has been taken against CPI(M)’s Kannur district secretary P. Jayarajan, a close aide of Pinarayi Vijayan, who had unilaterally welcomed the BJP rebels into the party even before the State committee discussed the issue! Informed sources said Jayarajan has a personal agenda to pursue in the matter. The induction of BJP rebels who have some influence in Panur area of Kannur district where the CPI(M) is a bit weak would stand the party in good stead in the coming Lok Sabha elections from Vadakara constituency, a traditional CPI(M) stronghold which it lost to the Congress in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. That is the CPI(M)’s calculation. Also, the BJP rebels have come accepting the CPI(M)'s political line, say the party leaders. Most probably, Jayarajan’s sister P. Sathidevi, who had lost to Union Minister of state for Home Mullappally Ramachandran in the last election from Kannur, would be fielded again from Vadakara. Hence Jayarajan’s personal interest in the decision.

But there is a distinct possibility of the move backfiring. So far, the Muslim organisations have not openly commented on the CPI(M)’s decision. But there is unease among the Muslim supporters of the CPI(M) over the move embrace the former saffron activists. It may be mentioned that, when CPI(M) joined hands with Madani last time, there was a Hindu polarization of sorts against the CPI(M) with disastrous results for the party.

The allies of the CPI(M) in the Left Democratic Front(LDF) are also uncomfortable about the CPI(M) move to welcome BJP rebels. The CPI has frowned upon the decision. In fact, former CPI general secretary A B Bardhan has said that it would not benefit the LDF in any manner. The State CPI is likely to come out with a formal response after the state CPI secretariat meeting due to be held on 3,4 and 5 of February. The RSP also has reservations on the issue, perhaps in view of the impending parliamentary elections. The CPI has also refrained from commenting on the sentencing of three CPI(M) leaders in the TP murder case. Significantly, the CPI had supported VS when he praised Chandrashekharan as a courageous communist – a glaring contrast to Pinarayi Vijayan’s dubbing the slain RMP leader as a renegade.

The hallmark of a political party is its ability to turn even adversity to account. The CPI(M) still has a chance to make a virtue out of necessity. It can use the party general secretary’s statement to wriggle out of the present predicament. Prakash Karat had declared that any party activist or leader found involved in the Chandrashekharan murder will have no place in it. The CPI(M) should suspend the three convicted partymen pending the final verdict from the higher courts. If they are cleared of the charge, they can stage a comeback. Also, even more important, the CPI(M) must use this opportunity to renounce unreservedly, once for all, the politics of murder. Can the CPI(M) leadership muster the courage to do it? Such a bold declaration would help the CPI(M) to regain the political initiative. Failure to do so could hasten the Left drift towards marginalization. It would be nothing short of a Greek tragedy if the Left were to be further enfeebled in Kerala’s political landscape because of its refusal to change. (IPA Service)