There is no denying that Modi’s visit has greatly enthused the State BJP’s rank and file. The feel good factor was too palpable to be missed. Buoyed BJP workers would have the people of Kerala believe that Modi came, saw and conquered! Well, that, obviously, was a tall claim. Nothing of that sort has happened. In fact, the turnout at the Modi meetings was far below the expectations of its leadership. Over three lakh BJP workers would attend the maha rally in the state capital, the leaders trumpeted. But in reality, the crowd strength was only in the region of a lakh.

The most significant feature of the rally was the presence, in large numbers, of youth in the 18-25 age groups. That cannot but gladden BJP hearts. Conversely, it must cause some concern in both the UDF and LDF camps.

But the most important question is: Does the State BJP have the organizational strength and wherewithal to ensure that the visible enthusiasm of these youngsters is translated into solid votes? A section of the BJP leadership says Modi’s ‘electrifying’ visit to the State will make a big difference to the party this time; and that the party will sink the differences and rise to the occasion to realize its long-standing dream: of opening its account in the Lok Sabha elections.

Does the ground reality match the confidence being exuded by the party leadership? The answer to the question has to be in the negative given the faction-ridden state of the Kerala BJP. Resentment against the State BJP president V. Muraleedharan has manifested on many occasions, and is becoming too frequent to be of comfort to the central BJP leadership and the RSS.

Just one instance would show the strength of the anti-Muralidheeran feeling in the party. A senior leader and chief of Kerala BJP’s Mahila Wing, Shoba Surendran shot off a complaint against Muraleedharan’s autocratic style of functioning to party president Rajnath Singh only a few days back. The letter, it is learnt, has gone to the extent of demanding a change in the State BJP leadership.

Shoba said the exodus of a large number of BJP activists from the party and to the CPI(M) in Kannur district was due entirely to the dismal failure of the State BJP leadership to address their grievances. If only the leadership had made a sincere effort to solve their problems on time, such a large-scale resignation from the party could have been avoided, argued Shoba. More than 2000 BJP workers including its former Kannur district chief O K Vasu Master and another senior leader Ashokan left the party and joined the CPI(M) in the presence of CPI(M) state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan recently. The number may be exaggerated, but the crossing over to the BJP’s arch rival in Kannur of a large number of workers is a matter of grave concern to the party, Shoba contended. Again, at a recent party function in Kasargode, a BJP stronghold, former BJP president Venkaiah Naidu unilaterally announced that state BJP general secretary K. Surendran, considered close to Muraleedharan, will be the party candidate from Kasargode Lok Sabha constituency, to the shock and surprise of the Kerala BJP chief’s detractors in the party. Shoba Surendran and other anti-Muraleedharan leaders objected. Consequently, it was announced that it was not a formal announcement; Naidu was only articulating the desire of a large section of the BJP workers in the constituency!

Such is the severity of dissidence in the state BJP unit that a recent meeting of the core committee to discuss selection of candidates for the Lok Sabha polls had to be abruptly adjourned following heated exchanges between pro and anti-Muraleedharan leaders!

A worried RSS leadership has intervened to limit the damage. Strict instructions have been issued to the state leaders to desist from issuing statements harmful to the party. Reports have it that the RSS has taken ‘complete control’ of the BJP campaigning in the state. It remains to be seen whether this late effort will have the desired effect.

The only silver lining which has come the BJP way is a survey which predicts that the party will open its electoral account in the state this time! The two constituencies where the party has the best chances of realizing its dream are Thiruvananthapuram and Kasargode. Senior party leader and a former central minister, O. Rajagopal is likely to be the party candidate in Thiruvananthapuram. Rajagopal’s clean image and good record as a union minister of state for railways will stand him in good stead this time around, argue BJP leaders. Also, the polarization of Hindu voters thanks to the unabashed minority appeasement policy of the Congress-led UDF Government in the state will also help Rajagopal to make it to the Lok Sabha, it is being argued. Much, however, depends on who will contest against Rajagopal. If the Congress retains Union Minister Shashi Tharoor, the sitting MP from Thiruvananthapuram, Rajagopal’s task would become easier, BJP workers claim. Tharoor has come under a cloud following the death of his wife under mysterious circumstances. Thiruvananthapuram will witness a battle royal if LDF gives the seat to the CPI and the party fields the daughter of the late former chief minister P. K. Vasudevan Nair.

Likewise, in Kasargode too, the BJP has an outside chance of winning, claim the state leaders. That the Kasargode borders Karnataka, where the BJP is quite strong, is a plus point for the party in the Lok Sabha polls. In the last LS elections, Surendran had managed to poll more than a lakh votes. This time around, the BJP’s performance will be much better given the sharp polarization of Hindu votes in the State stemming from the UDF Government’s pro-minorities policy.

A third seat where the BJP may put up an impressive performance is Palakkad in the Malabar region. Party stalwart O. Rajagopal, who belongs to Palakkad, has considerable influence in the constituency. But Palakkad has always remained a stronghold of the CPI(M). And the sitting CPI(M) MP, M. B. Rajesh has endeared himself to the voters of Palakkad thanks to his sterling performance both inside Parliament and outside it. Reports have it that the CPI(M) is all set to field Rajesh again from Palakkad. This being the scenario, it will be extremely difficult for the BJP to romp home the winner from Palakkad, Modi factor notwithstanding.

In the final analysis, it can be said that Thiruvananthapuram is the BJP’s best bet. The UPA Government’s dismal failure to control the astronomical price rise will be a major campaign issue in the LS polls. Also, if Rajagopal is the BJP candidate as is most likely, his clean image and excellent track record would give the BJP a distinct edge. The LDF candidate will be on the defensive because of the life sentence awarded to three CPI(M) leaders in the TP Chandrashekharan murder case. Will Thiruvananthapuram spring an unpleasant surprise on the UDF and the LDF? The BJP is absolutely sure that the party is tantalizingly close to making history from the Kerala capital. (IPA Service)