However, a caveat needs to be sounding about the Third Front. It is that there may not be one such group. Instead, there can be two, one comprising Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee and, perhaps, Naveen Patnaik, and the other may include the Left, the Samajwadi Party, the Janata Dal (United), the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Asom Gana Parishad.

Since these formations will be highly fluid in terms of allegiances, it is obvious that their chances of forming a government with the support of either Congress or BJP are even less than what they were when similar conglomerates came to power in 1977 or 1989 or between 1996 and 1998. Moreover, the scene will be made messier by the Aam Aadmi Party, which may win 20/30 seats by cutting into the BJP’s and the Congress’ vote banks.

The events of the recent past have marginally diminished the BJP’s prospects. These include the face-off between Narendra Modi and Murli Manohar Joshi over the Varanasi seat, the objections voiced by Sushma Swaraj over the inclusion of tainted politicians in the BJP and L K Advani’s observation that the poll campaign was becoming a one-man show.

Such dissonance is inevitable in any party, especially one aiming at a big prize, but its effect has been magnified by the fact that the BJP hasn’t been able to draw any major party to its side. Its only acquisition has been the minuscule Lok Janshakti Party which found itself squeezed between the big players in Bihar politics like the ruling Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, though the latter is in a weakened state.

Otherwise, the earlier hope that the Telugu Desam and the YSR Congress will line up with the BJP has not materialised because the Telangana’s formation has queered the pitch for such alignments with the two Seemandhra-based parties, which are against the Andhra Pradesh’s division. The once-touted possibility of Jayalalithaa joining Modi has long been discarded because the AIADMK czarina developed prime ministerial ambitions of her own.

Seeing the rift between the chief ministers of Tamil Nadu and Gujarat, the DMK’s M Karunanidhi tried to enter through what he saw as a half-open door by praising Modi’s hard work. But, the latter evinced no interest in a leader tarred by the spectrum scam and weakened by the skirmishes between his sons. Modi has opted, therefore, for Capt. Vijaykant’s DMDK. But, the tie-up, like the one with the Gorkha Janamukti Morcha in Darjeeling, is unlikely to significantly boost the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally.

There have been a few individuals like the former Union minister Daggubati Purandeswari joining the BJP, but such comings and goings are of marginal importance. By that token, Atal Behari Vajpayee niece, Karuna Shukla, has joined the Congress.

Arguably, the easy run which the BJP had expected for Modi is unlikely to be fulfilled. The party’s difficulties will increase if the Congress turns on the heat by raising questions about Modi’s marital status and even reviving the old charge about the involvement of the RSS in Mahatma Gandhi’s assassination. Considering that the Congress has never been in such a tight corner before, except in the aftermath of the Emergency, its no-holds-barred tactics are understandable.

As for Modi, the old fears that he may have peaked too early have been revived although the audience at his meetings remain as enthusiastic as before. But, how much of it is due to the organizational skills of the party and the RSS and how much is the result of genuine popular appeal is open to question. Besides, the charge that for all his talk about development, he is yet to articulate what exactly he intends to do is being made.

Till now, the only specific point he has made, and that, too, in a roundabout way, is to call upon the small-time traders, who constitute the BJP’s traditional supporters, to be ready for global challenges, suggesting that unlike his party, Modi favours FDI in the retail sector. Otherwise, he has stuck to generalities.

There is little doubt that whatever headway that he has made has been due almost entirely to, first, the Congress abysmal record of scams and poor governance and, secondly, to Rahul Gandhi’s inability to grow up from being prince charming to a king-in-waiting. As his failure to appear in a second one-to-one television interview, as suggested by Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah shows, the dauphin, and his handlers which include his sister, Priyanka, are not confident that he is capable of dealing with tough questions.

With no one ready to take charge, the country may have to go in for another election in a year or two. (IPA Service)