The campaign theme of chief minister Jayalalithaa, who is herself a candidate for the top post in the event of a hung Parliament, is: ‘If Tamil Nadu has to survive, prosper and progress, we will have to win all the 40 seats from Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.’ She has made no secret of her ambition. In February, this year she asked the state to give all the 40 seats as her birthday gift. Soon after the AIADMK dumped the Left, the unexpected support from the West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee to her prime ministerial ambitions, has come as a boost to Jaya. Even former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda has backed her candidature recently.

What makes Jaya so ambitious? First of all, the election scene is now clear that there will be a five-cornered contest, the first of its kind in the state, which could be an advantage to the AIADMK. Had the entire opposition combined together and took on the AIADMK it would have been a formidable combination. Moreover, the anti-incumbency factor has not yet kicked up in Tamil Nadu where Jaya has taken care to address the governance aspect.

Secondly, the DMK is suffering from family quarrels. Its chief Karunanidhi has expelled his elder son Azhagiri preferring his younger son Stalin as his successor. The DMK is yet to raise its head after its humiliating defeat in 2011 Assembly polls. There is demoralisation in the party cadres.

Thirdly, Jayalalithaa's confidence also stems from the fact that the AIADMK came back to power in the state with a thumping majority in 2011 in the wake of a strong anti-DMK wave. The party has also won all the four bye-elections since it came to power as well as the local body elections.

Fourthly, Jaya is confident that her party’s vote share will more or less remain in tact. The AIADMK had a 38.5 per cent vote share in the 2011 Assembly polls. Pollsters do not see her losing more than a five per cent vote share in the worst-case scenario. The DMK had 22.4 per cent vote share.

Fifthly, alliances have played a major role in Tamil Nadu polls. The Dravidian parties have always preferred an alliance with the Congress except in the 1957 general elections when the DMK, contested alone. The AIADMK for the first time is going it alone in the Lok Sabha elections, since its launch in 1972 while the DMK has forged an alliance with smaller and insignificant parties like the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, Indian Union Muslim League, Puthiya Tamizhagam and Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi. The arithmetic is not in favor of the DMK. The DMK's decision to dump Congress, its ally of nine years, has offered a major advantage to the ruling AIADMK. The DMK doest not want to touch the Congress because the Grand Old Party has acquired a negative image on Sri Lankan Tamils issue and the release of seven convicts in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.

The BJP, which has a meager presence in the state, has managed to rope in three smaller parties – MDMK, PMK and DMDK. The BJP, DMK and the Congress wooed DMDK chief Vijayakant but ultimately the BJP won the race. The DMDK was a partner with the AIADMK in the 2011 Assembly polls. The BJP front hopes to get a 16 per cent vote share.

Gone are the days of the two Dravidian parties vying with each other to align with the Congress. The DMK's refusal to shake hands with the Congress is forcing the Grand Old Party to go it alone in the Lok Sabha elections. Many of its local leaders like minister G K Vasan are not keen to contest.

Left parties are also isolated after their alliance with AIADMK collapsed over seat sharing. They were unhappy with Jaya’s offer of one seat each while they demanded three each. Their apprehensions were that she was keeping her options open in the post poll scenario with the BJP.

Both the Dravidian parties have come up with populist manifestoes. They have promised a change in oil pricing formula, scrapping of foreign direct investment (FDI) in retail, and hike in exemption limit for individual income tax. However, one major difference is that the AIADMK has promised freebies like fans, mixer grinders, laptops, goats, cows, four gram gold for poor women's marriage and other things nationwide, the DMK's manifesto is silent on the freebies. It also covers retrieval of Katchatheevu, ceded by India to Sri Lanka 40 years ago.

Modi is hoping for the support of his friend Jayalalithaa but the results will show which way the tide turns. Among the six big states where the BJP is weak Tamil Nadu is important and the results will have a huge impact on the formation of the next government. One has to wait and see whom Dame Luck favors. (IPA Service)