The stakes are very high for both the fronts. For the CPI(M), a good performance is essential to retain the national party status. A handsome victory is no less important for the Congress, as Kerala is the only state apart from Karnataka where the party is hopeful of bagging a decent number of seats in its struggle to retain power at the Centre.

While the Congress will contest 16 seats, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), will put up candidates in two seats; the Kerala Congress (Mani) and the Socialist Janata (Democratic) (SJD) will contest from one seat each.

As for the LDF, the CPI(M) will contest 15 seats, and the CPI four. The Janata Dal(S), which threatened to contest four seats if its demand for a seat was not conceded, will contest from Kottayam.

A disturbing feature of the candidates list is that both the UDF and the LDF – the former more so - have allowed themselves to be influenced by the caste, community and religious factors in the matter of finalization of candidates. For instance, the Congress has yielded to the diktat of the Idukki Bishop in choosing the candidate for the Idukki seat. As a result, the sitting MP, P. T. Thomas, who was adjudged the best performing MP from Kerala, has had to leave the seat to State Youth Congress president, Dean Kuriakose! Thomas had incurred the wrath of the Bishop as his stance on the Kasturirangan report implementation was sharply at odds with that of the Bishop and the church group.

The upshot of that unseemly spat is that Idukki will, this time, witness a fierce battle, with the CPI(M) fielding an Independent supported by the church group. And there is a distinct possibility of Idukki, an otherwise sure seat of the Congress, springing an unpleasant surprise on the party. What is adding to the Congress’s worry is the sense of resentment the KC(M) is nursing over the refusal of the former to leave the seat for it. The anger in the KC(M) camp is sure to reflect in the voting pattern as the party is unlikely to work sincerely for the victory of the Congress candidate. KC(M) vice-chairman and chief whip of the Government, P. C. George has already hinted at the party’s attitude to the campaign in Idukki saying that he will campaign there only if he ‘gets time’! After a long time, the CPI(M) thinks it has a good chance of scoring an upset

The LDF list shows that for the Ponnani and Malappuram seats, the party has chosen Muslim candidates! Interestingly, all the five Independents fielded by the party belong to the minorities! The CPI also chose for Thiruvananthapuram, a constituency dominated by Nadars and Nairs, a Christian Nadar, ignoring opposition.

As for the BJP, that champion of Hindutva, the party chose Christian candidates – Sabhu Varghese for Idukki and Noble Mathews for Kottayam!! For all you know, in the next elections, the party may go for Muslim candidates in the Muslim-dominated Malappuram region!

The Congress list does not show any major changes. All the sitting MPs, except two, Peethambara Kurup from Kollam and P T Thomas from Idukki, have been retained. But there is great resentment against retaining Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram and M. I. Shanavas in Wayanad. In a way, the Congress has had a relatively easy time in finalising the candidates this time around with the decision to retain most of the sitting MPs. Expectations that the list will have the stamp of new KPCC chief V M Sudheeran have not materialised. The winnability-alone-will-count concept has also not been strictly adhered to. Under the circumstances, it’s advantage Oommen Chandy and Ramesh Chennithala as the list is packed with their supporters.

An interesting feature of the CPI(M) list is that five out of the 15 party candidates are independents. In a deft move, which could fetch the party handsome dividends, the CPI(M) has fielded five independents. For instance, the party has fielded two former Congressmen against Congress candidates in Idukki and Pathanamthitta, Congress bastions! The CPI(M)’s calculation is that by fielding former Congressmen it can cut into the votes of the Congress candidates there. The game plan gives the CPI(M) a reasonably good chance to wrest both the seats from the Congress. A factor which is sure to help the CPI(M) is the anger among the settler farmers in both the constituencies against the Congress over the Kasturirangan report. Add to this the support from two church dioceses. And the result can only be in its favour, argue CPI(M) sources.

The CPI(M) list boasts of a few heavyweights including Politburo member M A Baby (Kollam), A. Vijayaraghavan (Kozhikkode), P. K. Sreemathy (Kannur) and P. Karunakaran (Kasargode).

The BJP has also fielded all its top leaders for the poll battle. Senior leader and former minister O. Rajagopal, BJP state general secretary K. Surendran, another secretary A N Radhakrishnan, former state chief C. K. Padmanabhan and Mahila wing chief Shoba Surendran will contest from Thiruvananthapuram, Kasargode, Ernakulam, Kozhikkode and Palakkad respectively.

But the most prestigious battle this time will take place in Kollam between M A Baby of the CPI(M) and NK Premachandran of the RSP, which ended its 34-year-old ties with the LDF and crossed over to the UDF in protest against the CPI(M)’s refusal to give it the Kollam seat. The CPI(M) has pressed into service the full might of its organizational machinery to ensure Baby’s victory. Significantly, Baby’s rally was inaugurated by none other than V. S. Achuthanandan, who remains the star campaigner for the CPI(M). Interestingly, the buzz is that VS has effected a temporary truce with the official leadership! The RSP factor will prove Baby’s undoing in Kollam, argue UDF sources. CPI(M) sources, however, scorn the claim. They contend that the RSP’s ‘betrayal’ has angered the voters of Kollam, who will give a befitting reply to Premachandran’s opportunism in switching sides on poll eve.

The CPI has also put up powerful candidates in the four seats allotted to it. While C N Jayadevan, who had lost to P C Chacko of the Congress narrowly in the last LS elections, is contesting from Thrissur, another popular leader Satyan Mokeri is trying his luck from Wayanad, a Congress stronghold. But it would be a different ball game this time as the people in Wayanad are angry over the UDF’s doublespeak on Kasturirangan report implementation. The Kasturi factor gives Satyan, a highly popular leader in Wayanad, a real chance to score an upset victory. Another plus factor is the unpopularity of and resentment against Congress candidate M I Shanavas among not only Congressmen but also among the IUML activists. In Thiruvananthapuram, the CPI has fielded, reservations of its cadres notwithstanding, a Christian Nadar, Bennet Abraham. It’s a shrewd move because Abraham can cut into the powerful and numerically strong Nadar votes in the constituency, which would have otherwise gone to the Congress candidate. Likewise, in Mavelikkara, senior CPI leader Chengara Surendran is capable of giving a rude electoral jolt to Congress candidate and Union Minister Kodikkunnil Suresh.

The LDF has left one seat, Kottayam, for Janata Dal(S), which has fielded its state chief Mathew T Thomas. The entry of Thomas, a highly respected leader, would mean it is no more a cakewalk for KC(M)’s Jose K. Mani. And if the Congress does not lend its full support – a proposition which cannot be ruled out given the strained relations between the Congress and the KC(M) – then Jose will have to really sweat it out to make it to the Lok Sabha this time.

Will the verdict in the TP Chandrashekharan murder case, in which three CPI(M) leaders have been sentence to life imprisonment, impact on the final result? It certainly will, argue UDF sources, especially in Vadakara, Kannur and Kozhikkode. A worrying factor for the CPI(M) is the presence of Revolutionary Marxist Party(RMP) candidates in Vadakara, Kannur and Kozhikkode. If the RMP cuts too much into CPI(M) votes, then the CPI(M) has cause to worry in these seats.

However, CPI(M) sources are confident of neutralizing the TP factor. The party says there is a tremendous wave of anger against the Congress both in the state and at the Centre. The people, groaning under the impact of unprecedented price rise and disgusted with astronomical corruption of the ruling party, will translate their anger into votes on the D-day, point out the LDF sources. In fact, price rise will be the most important issue in the Lok Sabha elections, they contend, arguing that other issues will pale into insignificance before that. If that forecast proves right, then the CPI(M)-led LDF can hope for an impressive performance. But if the people’s sense of horror and revulsion against the murder politics outstrips their anger over the price rise, then the CPI(M) could be in for an ugly surprise. (IPA Service)