Most major parties contesting from West Bengal publicly do not profess much faith in pre-poll projections. In private, however, state leaders neither reject nor ignore the findings of such surveys. On the contrary, they take them very seriously indeed. Not surprising, it is common knowledge that most politicians rarely practice what they publicly preach.

West Bengal’s chief minister Mamata Banerjee seems to take pre-poll projections seriously. Until a couple of weeks ago, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo hardly mentioned the BJP in her long-winded speeches at public rallies or workers’ meetings. Seeing that the BJP’s share of total votes polled in major elections had ranged between 4 to 11 per cent in the state, she could afford to be dismissive. When she deigned to mention the BJP at all, she called it ‘a communal party of rioters’.

The reference is to the Gujarat riots of 2002. Overeager to maintain her support base among the West Bengal’s Muslims (around 30 per cent of the population), she resorts to totally rewriting even recent history. ‘I quit the NDA when I found that the BJP was communal,’ she thunders at public rallies and browbeats even reputed celeb anchors of national TV channels into believing.

The facts are otherwise. When a panicky Mamata Banerjee deserted the leaky NDA ship just prior to the 2001 Assembly polls in West Bengal, it was not on the issue of communalism. She quit over the Tehelka revelations which portrayed the BJP and its leadership as financially corrupt. Rightly or wrongly, there were some allegations against her as well. Fearful of the CPI(M)’s formidable propaganda machine in those days, she resigned post haste. At one stage, former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee kept her in limbo without portfolio as a minister for months, as she tried to get back into favour.

The point that needs stressing categorically is, communalism, or any concern for the Muslims of India, had nothing to do with her resignation from the NDA.

Of late, the tenor of her public monologues has changed markedly. She now concentrates far more on attacking the BJP, spewing more venom and abuse than before. This makes political observers wonder at times whether she is not overdoing things a bit. What makes her take the BJP, a non-starter in the West Bengal context, so seriously all of a sudden?

Part of the answer lies in local intelligence reports and some recent surveys, which have not been sweet music for TMC leadership. It seems there is a distinct swing in favour of the BJP and Narendra Modi, even in TMC-ruled West Bengal. This may ensure the BJP’s winning many more votes, possibly to the extent of 12 to 15 per cent of the aggregate, according to some estimates. The size of the non-Bengali population (mostly Hindi speaking) in the state is around 1.5 crore. Earlier, votes from this segment were cornered by the Congress(I), while the workers voted Left. Of late, there has been a swing to the TMC, as the Congress(I) and Left parties weakened while the BJP was never seen as a potential winner.

The Modi factor has changed all this. In addition, the TMC’s mishandling of certain local issues, such as the state’s brutally insensitive handling of the gang rape and subsequent murder of the young daughter of a Bihari taxi driver, has considerably angered and alienated the large Bihari community settled in the state (around 4 million strong).

With votes to be split four ways between the TMC, the Left Front, the Congress(I) and the BJP, the situation suddenly looks less rosy for the ruling party. If the BJP is set to increase its share, it can cut mostly into the TMC’s share – the Congress(I) is noticeably weak, but the Left Front, despite being under pressure, may also gain through the vote split, still having a base of its own. Net outcome: fewer votes for the TMC, more for the BJP and the Left. Even if the BJP cannot win on its own (even if notches up 15 per cent), it can regain Darjeeling, besides putting up a stiff fight in North Bengal districts like Jalpaiguri, Coochbehar, (where the Gorkhas are a factor) Murshidabad-Malda-Nadia border areas, and elsewhere.

More importantly, it can effectively spoil the TMC’s party. Back in 2009, with a 4-5 per cent of the vote share, the BJP still scampered the TMC’s chances in 4-5 LS seats. Then the TMC’s share was bolstered by Congress(I) votes as the parties fought as an alliance. Now with the TMC fighting alone and votes to be divided four ways, a resurgent BJP might be the last thing the TMC really needs! ‘Suddenly, Banerjee’s call to her followers to make sure the TMC wins all 42 seats does not seem to impress her opposition any more,’ says an analyst.

According to one analyst, there will be tough four-cornered fights in 19 out of 42 seats, meaning that the outcome would be hard to predict. The contest in the remaining seats will be for the main part between three or even two major parties. The ruling TMC, which accounted for 44 per cent of the total votes in the last panchayat polls, would enjoy an edge in these seats.

But the TMC’s vote share in the panchayat polls was achieved on the basis of the party carrying out a comprehensive terror campaign against all opponents, using the police and the administration in a brazenly partisan manner that the State Election Commission would not or could not check. A Left spokesman says, ‘The TMC carved out at least a 5 per cent lead over its contenders through its bulldozing tactics in the panchayat polls. But this time, with the CEC overseeing and organising a 5-phase polling, backed by central forces and observers, the hometown advantage will not be available.’

Given this situation, it is no wonder that for all their public declarations about the number of seats they will win, TMC leaders refuse to speculate on the numbers they may win in private. And their one and only leader, feeling the strain, is reduced to using more and more vituperative language as the days go by. ‘There is no doubt at all that we will win the most number of seats from West Bengal one way or another,’ says one TMC leader. He may be right, but whether this will be good enough for a party seeking to spread its wings as the future controller of political destinies in India, remains unknown. (IPA Service)