The manifesto bears the imprint of Mr Rahul Gandhi whose heart may be said to be in the right place - putting the future of India as that of the poor people - but he has also alongside acknowledged that “we need to unleash business” for the poor to thrive. Still, UPA’s governance stands so much discredited, with accumulated grievances against it, that his endearing pro-poor blend may not catch the required votes.

Nor the whole agenda looks fiscally credible in the current state of economy, however sugar-coated as Finance Minister Mr Chidambaram sought to make it in his interim budget in February, relying on a sum-up of UPA’s ten-year record. Equally, the manifesto tells us of only aggregates for ten years of its rule, pilloried as misrule, not what it did since 2009.

Certainly, the Congress leadership has so far looked more defeatist than challenging, the way it had mutely watched the inexorable criss-crossing of the country by the BJP candidate for Prime Ministership, holding aloft his banner of revolt against the Congress for all its sins and proclaiming his badge of command performance in Gujarat.

If Mr. Modi, being hounded by a broad range of secular forces, for the massacres in his home state in 2002, has been non-chalant and feels he is on firm ground for the vaunted crown, brushing aside intra-party tensions over his abrasive style, neither the Congress nor the significant regional players have thus far displayed a level of counter-challenge to unnerve him.

There is of course Mr Arvind Kejriwal of AAP, making daily noises, dismissed by Mr Modi as of only nuisance value but who could be a thorn for the aspirant to the highest office. The AAP leader plays perfect a role of a principled intruder into the messy political scene, deriving maximum media attention, and the country would know in due course his potential as a spoiler of other’s fortunes.

In its manifesto, the Congress has promised 100 million jobs over the next five years as against 250 million by the BJP in its proposed platform over a ten-year period. The latter’s aim to create “100 new cities” is also matched in the Congress plan which provides for “urban clusters” to create jobs, and, for instance, by speeding up dedicated freight and industrial corridors on which work has been initiated.

First, on pro-poor package. The flagship programmes of UPA-I, especially the rural employment guarantee for 100 days per family, was clearly designed for poverty alleviation and with continually rising minimum wage, whatever be its impact for farm producers in general. While this has been touted as ushering in of rural prosperity, the jury is yet to be out on how far the tens of thousands of crores of annual spending without tangible asset creation did uplift rural India.

The new promises include a virtual universal health care (with health insurance and pension cover for entire labour class) and access for everyone to quality health care and a right to homestead for all poor rural and urban households (mainly expanding the present Indira and Rajiv Awas Yojanas), apart from an intended boost to other social security benefits. Expenditure on health would be raised to 3 per cent of GDP - not as high as in some countries but education gets lesser attention.

The Congress had for welfare to offer something new, as in the past two elections for the poor, no longer dubbed “aam aadmi”, and strengthen its high-sounding claim of “inclusive growth”. For the rest of the economy, the manifesto largely comprises the unfinished agenda of ten years of UPA including the pending tax laws, direct and indirect, and other laws on tightening the fight against corruption.

The manifesto is silent on actual employment generation resulting from high growth average it has cited while projecting a new target. It also lacks a more radical programme for the youth and what Mr Rahul Gandhi calls the “sandwich” class between the absolute poor and the middle class or the bulk of population.

Even the global agenda proposed in both IMF and World Bank programmes for all countries lays greater emphasis on reduction of rising income disparities and creation of jobs. In an environment of a much slower economic growth globally and constrained fiscal resources, job creation will be an important condition for the future economic mobility, as well as for strengthening the role of labor income as the main driver of the middle income growth, as the World Bank points out.

Congress-led UPA’s ten-year rule had stuck to the neo-liberal ideas and beliefs of the party’s top-tier leadership with the trickle-down theory associated with growth. This finds resonance in the manifesto which has not spelt out the role of public investment in vital sectors of the economy. Fiscal conservatism again trumps public investments.

Lacking any new vision which could have prodded a large chunk of electorate in its favour, the manifesto merely goes back to the priority of “8 per cent inclusive growth path”. It has thus clearly failed to offer immediate hopes for the vast mass of unemployed youth, educated and unskilled, and a build-up needed to reap the “demographic dividend” India banks on for its global future.

Cautiously, it talks of “zero aversion” to foreign investment with which the current account deficit would be financed. For the business and industry, the Manifesto cites the aim of putting India back on the “8 per cent plus growth” trajectory within three years.

New investments would be attracted for job creation within “100 days of government formation”. The two major tax laws, to be brought in the first year would “increase aggregate revenue” which, it is to be presumed, would finance its welfare package. There would be prioritised implementation of the National Manufacturing Policy to enhance share of manufacturing in GDP to 25% by 2022 - old wine -and the focus would be on attracting new investments for job creation, within 100 days of government formation.

The overall electoral scene still looks as uncertain as ever for political stability in 2014, which is what investors at home and abroad look for and the credit rating agencies are kept in suspended animation. Mr Chidambaram is satisfied he has turned the economy “stable” for the successor government with fiscal and current deficits fairly contained.

With all the fanfare surrounding the manifesto, Mr Gandhi tends to believe that there would be indecisive outcome necessitating another poll within a year or two which would turn the tide in favour of the Congress. Why that far, the Congress President Ms. Sonia Gandhi has some comforting note to offer, “No one should count the Congress out”. (IPA Service)