In Kerala, both the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF) exude optimism about their prospects. The UDF attributes its confidence to the fact that, in a parliamentary election, the Congress always performs well because what is at stake is the survival of the nation as a secular, democratic dispensation.

The LDF however, counters this with the argument that the most important issues in this election are the phenomenal price rise and astronomical corruption. On that front, the performance of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government has been poor. Therefore, the LDF’s chances are much better than those of the UDF.

Be that as it may, there are many other factors which make a prediction difficult this time around. First and foremost, there is no discernible wave in favour of any front. The BJP begs to differ; their contention is that in this election, the Modi factor will play a big role and that the party may create history by opening its account from the State. While it is true that Modi has galvanized the BJP rank and file in the state, the party’s dream of making its electoral debut from Kerala may not be realized this time too.

The UDF leaders predict that the front may win at least one more seat than they did last time: in other words the UDF says its tally in this election would be 17 as against 16 it did in the 2009 elections. The front leaders point out that majority of the opinion polls also support their claim. LDF leader, however, ridicule this argument saying that opinion polls and pre-poll surveys are made by the corporates and pro- Congress and pro-BJP channels, and never favour the left.

An interesting feature of the poll campaign in this election has been that the fight is close even in the strongholds of both the fronts. For instance, constituencies like Kasargode, Palakkad, Kollam, Attingal and Alathur, traditional strongholds of the LDF, the UDF is giving the LDF a run for its money.

The most prestigious fight is in Kollam where CPI(M) Politburo member M A Baby is pitted against N K Premachandran of the RSP which crossed over to the UDF in the eleventh hour upset at being denied the seat. The CPI(M) has pressed into service the full might of its organizational machinery to ensure Baby’s victory and teach Premachandran a lesson for his ‘betrayal’. What has embarrassed Premachandran is the former Congress MP Peethambara Kurup’s disclosure that the RSP’s defection to the UDF camp was not a sudden development and that it had decided to do so at least three weeks before it actually joined hands with the UDF! Congress sources attribute Kurup’s disclosure to his frustration at being denied the seat. But the revelation could have a bearing on the Kollam result.

Likewise, UDF bastions like Wayanad, Idukki, and Pathanamthitta could crumble because of the adverse effect of local issues like the Kasturirangan report. To illustrate the point further, in Wayanad, the surest seat for Congress, party candidate M I Shanavas is struggling to retain it for a variety of reasons. Shanavas is on the defensive not only because of the Kasturirangan report factor. He has run into opposition from a section of his own partymen owing to his lackluster performance. Even the Congress ally, Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) had objected to his candidature. The Congress fears the IUML may not fully support him this time. Defeat in Wayanad would be a disaster for the UDF.

People in these areas are very angry over the ‘doublespeak’ of the Congress on the Kasturirangan issue. The Congress says that the latest draft notification put out by the Union Environment Ministry would address the concerns of the people of the hill districts. But the people of Idukki, Pathanamthitta and Wayanad are not convinced. The reason for their feat is that the November 2013 notification which wants the state to implement the Kasturirangan report, which they say is harmful to the people of the hill districts, has not been withdrawn. The latest is only a draft, which has no legal value and cannot be depended upon. That is the argument of the Kerala Congress(M), an ally of the Congress in the UDF. The resentment of the people, therefore, is bound to reflect in the voting pattern. And the LDF leaders are confident of upsetting the calculations of the UDF in these constituencies.

Similarly, the LDF has been ridiculed by the UDF for fielding independents in as many as five constituencies. It shows that the LDF, particularly the CPI(M) has a dearth of good candidates, and that is why it has had to rely upon Independents. The LDF says the front has always fielded independents – right from the 1957 elections. In support of their argument, the LDF leaders say, in the 1957 elections, the communist party put up independents like V R Krishna Iyer, Joseph Mundasseri and Dr. A R Menon, and all of them won!

The fact is all the independents fielded by the CPI(M) in this election are giving sleepless nights to the UDF. The CPI(M)-supported independent candidates in Idukki, Pathanamthitta, Chalakkudy, Ponnani, even according to pro-UDF newspapers and TV channels are capable of creating upset victories!

As for the Malabar region, the UDF says the TP Chandrashekharan murder is the biggest issue, which would cause the downfall of the CPI(M) in constituencies like Vadakara, Kannur and Kozhikkode. The presence of the Revolutionary Marxist Party (RMP), whose leader Chandrashekharan was, in these seats would harm the CPI(M), the UDF camp argues. In fact people of the state are horrified by the politics of murder of the CPI(M) and would rebuff it decisively, so goes their contention. LDF leaders, however dismiss this argument saying that the murder issue would not neutralize people’s anger either in these seats or elsewhere the price rise and corruption issues and the poor performance of the incumbent Congress.

LDF leaders say that the latest court verdict in the Salim Raj land grab case would also have affect the UDF’s prospects. The judge’s caustic observations against the Chief Minister have caused consternation in the UDF camp. True, a part of the objectionable observations has been stayed. But the fact that some of the damaging remarks have not been expunged spells trouble for Oommen Chandy and the Congress in particular, contend the LDF sources. Add to this, the booster shot the CPI(M) received in the form of VS-Vijayan ‘cooperation’, and the UDF misery would spill over, argue LDF activists.

Last but not the least, the speeches of the tallest Congress leader from Kerala and Union Defence Minister A K Antony have caused eyebrows to be raised all round. Even as he strongly criticized the CPI(M), Antony sought the party’s help to prevent the BJP from forming the government at the Centre! Antony’s utterances betray the sense of nervousness in the Congress camp and shows that the party has already admitted defeat. While Antony wants the Left to support the Congress, he refused to back the third front led by the left parties should the need arise! The Antony stance has not gone down well even in the Congress camp.

If surveys and opinion polls are anything to go by, the UDF would sweep the Lok Sabha polls from Kerala. But, then, the surveys only put out what its sponsors want to project. Congress leaders also advance an interesting argument: in 1977, when Indira Gandhi lost the general election, Kerala bucked the national trend and stood solidly by her! The outcome in this election would be similar, they contend! That is while the Congress loses at the national level, it would do very well in the state. (IPA Service)