How far these ambitions of Mr. Naidu would be met remains to be seen. Prima facie, it is the best thing he could have done to get out of despair and tackle a bleak scenario, with all leading political parties fiercely fighting among themselves in both regions. Ruling Congress forfeited the integrated Andhra Pradesh by its decision on bifurcation (hara kiri).

In short, the TDP leader must be eyeing power mainly in Seemandhra while Mr K Chandrasekara Rao of TRS looks unassailable to head the new State of Telengana with a commanding majority for the Telengana Rashtra Samiti, elbowing out the Congress which had vainly sought merger/alliance with it. And all this admirably suits BJP, whose sole concern is to make the 272 in the new Lok Sabha, tying up allies everywhere to get the leverage in constituency votes.

Depending on numbers for the Assembly, it may get even a small share of power in either of the two regions, if TDP proves itself. If so, it will be the first time, BJP can assert its presence in another southern state, after having lost Karnataka in the Assembly elections last year. And, at the Centre, NDA gets one more ally from the South in TDP thus widening its sweep. Whatever the number of Lok Sabha seats it gets in the two regions of AP, BJP can count on Karnataka where it had gained a major share of Lok Sabha seats in 2009.

It is the 'Modi factor' that is influencing even the Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu aligning with BJP, especially Mr Vijay Kant's DMDK, which has secured its demand for 14 out of 39 seats for contest. With other outfits in seat-sharing, BJP has given itself fewer constituencies, and it hardly matters so long as its allies fare better. TDP returns back to NDA when the going looks good indeed and Mr Chandrababu Naidu sees the advantage in riding on a momentum generated by Mr Narendra Modi, who has now placed himself above BJP, partly to assuage concerns of his being a 'Hindutva' leader, and claims a vote for BJP is a vote for him for governance.

In both regions, BJP has limited its aims for Lok Sabha to 8 in Telengana, where it has some following, and only 5 in Seemandhra making a total of 13 in the two regions which together have 42 seats. Whatever the gains, BJP gets one more guarantee for support, as part of a string of 'fixes' it has made countrywide in its power bid.

In Telengana, TRS of Mr Chandrasekhara Rao hopes to secure some ten of 17 Lok Sabha seats and more than an absolute majority of the 112 Assembly seats for Telengana region at the time of its inauguration as a new state. BJP will contest 47 of these seats, leaving 72 for TDP under the latest deal between the two parties.

TDP has 9 Lok Sabha seats to fight for in Telengana and as many as 20 seats in Seemandhra where Mr Naidu would face not only the weakened Congress but also currently formidable rival, YSR Congress of Mr Jaganmohan Reddy, as well as possibly a motley of Congress dissidents protesting against the bifurcation. At the Assembly level, the BJP-TDP alliance leaves only 15 seats for BJP and 160 for TDP out of a total of 175 seats for Seemandhra. For Mr Naidu, it will be a challenge to overcome the resistance of scores of dissidents in TDP opposed to BJP alliance in both regions and further cross-overs among parties cannot be ruled out with weeks left before the poll.

Out of 42 seats in present Andhra Pradesh, polling for 17 seats in Telengana is due on April 30 while in Seemandhra with 25 seats, the polling day is May 7. Polling also takes place simultaneously for the Assembly on the respective Lok Sabha poll dates. Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will go to polls to elect Lok Sabha candidates on April 10 (20 seats), April 17 (28) and April 24 (39) respectively.

The Congress which bifurcated Andhra Pradesh, in a sudden politically-motivated move, hoping to retain traditional dominance in the State - in Seemandhra as well as Telengana regions - is heading to become a notorious loser. TRS is not willing for merger or alliance with Congress in Telengana which has 17 Lok Sabha seats, and the party has to fight on its own.

In enraged Seemandhra, where it faces a rout already, the Congress would now be at a greater disadvantage with the TDP-BJP deal. One way it could salvage some Lok Sabha seats in this region would be to strike a last-minute bargain with YSR Congress of Mr Jaganmohan Reddy on his terms. The latter would want to be in the driving seat of power in Seemandhra with Congress.

At least, it would help the Congress to gain some Lok Sabha seats besides a fairly strong presence in the Seemandhra Assembly, which would otherwise prove to be elusive. A deal with Mr Jagan would also imply dropping charges of illegal accumulation of wealth by him, in the long drawn out CBI case with proceedings deferred from time to time.

To cut overall losses, the Congress could still try to persuade Mr Chandrasekhara Rao on seat-sharing arrangement for both Lok Sabha and Assembly, leaving power-sharing arrangements at the local level to the outcome. For a party which readily came forward to agree to bifurcation, Mr Rao had become a wily politician. The Congress is drifting and partymen are at loggerheads in both regions. TDP has also its dissidents. BJP alone looks comfortable with the expected Lok Sabha seats in the two regions. For the crestfallen Congress, it could mean slightly better than drawing a virtual blank in a state which empowered it to rule at the Centre and at Hyderabad both in 2004 and 2009.

Depending on the final tally, it could be that BJP also shares power in Telengana Assembly and/or in Seemandhra. For the Congress, a more or less similar scenario at the state levels cannot be entirely ruled out as of now. There are still days for wheeling and dealing, though narrowing.

For the southern region as a whole, BJP could become a net gainer, if all its allies keep up their part of the bargain. Where it had not much of a presence in any southern state other than Karnataka, it would be adding AP (with possible power-sharing also at state level) while also making a few gains in Tamil Nadu for the first time, Kerala is a difficult proposition. (IPA Service)