Both the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front(LDF) claimed that the heavy turnout would benefit them. While Union Defence Minister and senior Congress leader A K Antony predicted a record victory for the UDF, CPI(M) State secretary Pinarayi Vijayan went to the extent of saying that the Congress will not get a single seat.

LDF leaders base their optimism on the heavy turnout in the Malabar region and the comparatively less polling in the south Kerala and the high ranges. CPI(M) leader Thomas Isaac said the high percentage of polling in Kasargode, Kannur, Vadakara and Kozhikode will be to the advantage of the LDF. The LDF would not only retain Kasargode but also wrest Kannur, Vadakara and Kozhikode from the UDF this time, he predicted.

The UDF leaders however dismiss this claim. They say that heavy polling has traditionally favoured the UDF. The people’s revulsion against the politics of murder would result in the LDF losing heavily this time around, they point out. This would be most pronounced in the Malabar constituencies of Kannur, Vadakara and Kozhikode districts of Kannur, where the CPI(M) will bear the brunt of the people’s anger against the brutal murder of RMP leader T P Chandrashekharan. That is their argument.

The CPI(M) leaders, however, counter this argument. They say that a local issue like the murder of a political leader would not offset the people’s anger against the Congress and the UPA Government at the Centre over the unprecedented price rise and the stink of corruption.

A matter of concern for the UDF is the low polling in south Kerala and the high ranges, where the Kasturirangan report was a major issue. This would impact the result in constituencies like Idukki and Pathanamthitta, and the Congress and the UDF will be the loser. The Kasturirangan will impact the outcome even in a Congress stronghold like Wayanad, predict the LDF leaders.

The fight is close even traditional Congress bastions like Thiruvananthapuram, Mavelikkara, Chalakkudy and Thrissur and Ernakulam. LDF sources say that heavy polling in the assembly segments dominated by the Nadar community in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat would favour the CPI candidate Bennet Abraham, a Nadar himself, and work to the disadvantage of Congress candidate Shashi Tharoor, the sitting MP.

Likewise, the LDF sources are confident of wresting Mavelikkara, Thrissur, Chalakkudy, Alappuzha while they are sure of retaining their traditional strongholds of Attingal, Alathur, Palakkad and Kasargode.

Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam president Vellappally Natesan, no supporter of the LDF, has also predicted that the LDF would win more seats this time. Again, the Idukki Bishop is on record that the voting pattern in the high ranges would reflect the people’s anger against the Kasturirangan report issue in which the Congress and the UDF are on the defensive. And that is bad news for the Congress and the UDF. (IPA)