The BJP is ‘absolutely sure of’ creating history from the Kerala capital of Thiruvananthapuram, where party stalwart O. Rajagopal is locked in a three-cornered contest.

What is the basis of the BJP leaders’ confidence? Well, party sources say a slew of factors favours the BJP in this election. First and foremost is the candidature of O. Rajagopal itself. His clean image and excellent track record as Minister of State for Railways in the Vajpayee Government are fondly remembered by the voters of Thiruvananthapuram, assert BJP sources.

Another factor which is in his favour is the ‘sympathy factor’. There is a general perception that this could well be the last election for the 80-plus ‘Rajettan’, as he is popularly known among the party workers and admirers. A victory from Thiruvananthapuram will be a fitting climax to a glorious career spanning over six decades.

Last but not the least, it is admitted by one and all that there has been large-scale cross-voting in this election. Congress leaders themselves openly admit that votes have indeed been transferred to Rajagopal. They said that not only Congress votes but even those of the LDF have been transferred to the BJP candidate in Thiruvananthapuram. This is true, they say, especially in Assembly constituencies like Nemam, Vattiyurkkavu and Neyyattinkara, dominated by the powerful nadir community, to which CPI candidate Bennet Abraham belongs. It is even alleged that Congress MLA from Nemom, N. Sakthan was behind the vote transfer – a charge since denied by Sakthan himself. But if the vote transfer has indeed taken place, then that is bad news for both Congress candidate Shashi Tharoor and the CPI nominee.

Will the much-hyped Modi factor make any difference to the fortunes of Rajagopal? Ironically, Modi chose to skip Thiruvananthapuram where the BJP has the best chances of making it to the Lok Sabha! This is being attributed to the fact that Rajagopal belongs to the Advani camp in the BJP. Interestingly, Advani made it a point to campaign for his ‘old friend’

The other two constituencies where the BJP is hopeful of putting up a good show are Kasargode and Pathanamthitta. In Kasargode, Kerala BJP general secretary, K. Surendran matched both the UDF and the LDF candidates in a whirlwind campaign. But the Muslim consolidation caused by the BJP manifesto’s endorsement of the Temple issue besides enforcement of a uniform civil code could go against Surendran, it is admitted even by BJP sources.

As far as Pathanathitta is concerned, the BJP candidate M T Ramesh has given both the UDF and the LDF candidates a run for their money. This is one of the two constituencies where the BJP launched a ‘very good campaign’, according to Congress leaders themselves, including Chief Minister Oommen Chandy. But what could mar his chances is the impact of the Kasturirangan report issue the adverse effect of which would affect the BJP as well as the Congress.

Whatever the final verdict, Narendra Modi’s ambitious plan of forging a ‘powerful third front’ in the State has failed to take off. The Gujarat Chief Minister had made a determined effort to woo the backward castes in the state by flashing the OBC card. It was expected that the impressive rally Modi addressed in the Kerala capital would occasion a consolidation of the disgruntled Hindu vote in favour of the BJP. But that does not seem to have happened, much to the dismally of the local BJP leaders.

In fact, given the revulsion and anger caused by the Oommen Chandy Government’s unabashed minority appeasement policy, it was expected that the Hindu voters would vote en bloc for the BJP candidates. But the voting pattern clearly shows a three-way divide of the Hindu vote: among the UDF, LDF and the BJP.

Again, despite their resentment against the UDF Government, neither Nair Service Society (NSS) chief G. Sukumaran Nair nor Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam(an organization of the Ezhavas) president Vellappally Natesan had directed their followers to vote for the BJP. Natesan did openly campaign against the Congress candidate from Alappuzha, Union Minister K C Venugopal. But that was more due to his personal animosity towards the Minister.

The BJP is disappointed that despite the bonhomie between Modi and Natesan at the former’s Thiruvananthapuram rally, Natesan did not direct the SNDP members to vote for the BJP. He only said that his organization would maintain a policy of ‘right distance’ as against the policy of ‘equidistance’ practised by the NSS, from all political parties, whatever that means!

The net result of all this is that the third alternative concept vigorously championed by the BJP in general and Modi in particular has not found favour with the Kerala voters, known for their secular credentials. Another reason why the Modi phenomenon failed to gain much traction in the State is the consolidation of the Muslim vote. It is a different matter whether that would favour the UDF or the LDF, though both claim they would be the beneficiaries of the tactical voting followed by the Muslims in Kerala this time around. The inescapable conclusion is that Modi’s belated attempt to play the communal card despite the accent on development and goods governance has caused grave concern among the Muslims. Hence the dismal failure of the Modi factor in God’s Own Country! (IPA Service)