Lalu started on a weak wicket, when his party geared for final showdown. Some of his MLAs had left his Dal, Ram Vilas Paswan shifted side to Narendra Modi and Congress was giving him sleepless nights over seat adjustment. Later, he forced Congress to join hands with him and started campaigning in his own way. Now polling on many of Bihar seats have taken place and the remaining seats will go for poll in next two phases, the scene has changed for the better for Lalu, his party and his alliance. Congress and NCP are his poll partners and their candidates are in straight fight on most of the seats of Bihar with BJP and its alliance partners.

Lalu is banking on Muslim-Yadav (MY) political alliance. As per 2001 census, Muslim constitutes 16.5 percent of the total population of Bihar, while according to various estimates Yadavas constitute around 14 percent of the total population. They together constitute over 30 percent of the population of Bihar and give Lalu and his alliance a solid support base. Situation in many constituencies became more favorable to Lalu candidates, because the MY alliance constitutes 35 to 45 percent of total voters of those individual constituencies. That is why in some of the constituencies; it is very difficult or almost impossible to defeat Lalu candidates, unless there is one to one fight.

In last Lok Sabha elections, Lalu candidates could not win in large number. Lalu himself tasted defeat in one of the two constituencies, where he was contesting. Only four candidates of his RJD could get elected. The reason of the defeat of most of his candidates was the split of votes of his MY combine and consolidation of anti Lalu votes with BJP- JD (U) alliance. Now the situation has changed. BJP and JD (U) have parted their company, while Muslims as well as Yadavas seem to have polarized towards Lalu in a big way.

Nitish was also trying to poach in Muslims by creating OBC and upper caste divide among them. To create a support base among them, Nitish did everything he could do, but Muslims are a political community. They have nothing against Nitish now. They praise him for being critical about Narendra Modi. They appreciate him for leaving NDA, but they are not voting for them, because Nitish cannot ensure the defeat of BJP candidates. Lalu commands the support of the single largest caste (Yadava) having around 14 per cent population, while the caste of Nitish, i.e., Kurmi is hardly two percent of the total population. Though Nitish is depending upon the extremely OBCs and Mahadalits, they are not political communities in the sense of Muslim or Yadavas. OBCs are subdivided into two groups since Karpoori Thakur days, but there have never been political rivalries between these two groups on the basis of their division. There is no political grouping like MBC in Bihar. Similarly, Mahadalit card is not working there. Bereft of solid support base among non Muslim population, Nitish has failed in luring the Muslim voters away from Lalu.

Muslims have always been supportive to Lalu since early 1990s. But their level of support was declining after 1991 Lok Sabha election, when Lalu candidates had won 39 out of 40 seats of present day Bihar. Now it seems 1991 has repeated itself, so long as the Muslim support to Lalu is concerned. This has given edge to many RJD, Congress and NCP candidates over BJP and its alliance partner. Even the support of Yadavas is much more coherent, though some of the young Yadavas have also got attracted towards Narendra Modi.

Will Lalu repeat 1991 in Bihar? There is no question of repetition of the result of that election, because almost all OBCs and SCs were solidly behind him and he was aligned with CPI and CPM also during the election. Now the support base of Lalu is confined to Yadavas and Muslims only. In this situation, the chances of success of Lalu candidates are only there, where this MY alliances constitute over 40 percent votes and if the contests are triangular. In straight contests, even MY alliance fails in yielding success.

It is clear that RJD and Congress along with NCP will increase its tally in comparison with 2009, which had given 4 seats to RJD and two to Congress. It may give Lalu delight, but his real test is in Pataliputra and Saran Lok Sabha constituencies, where his daughter and wife are contesting. Both these Lok Sabha seats have high concentration of Yadavas, but unfortunately for Lalu, Muslims are not present there in large number. With low Muslim population in both these two constituencies, MY does not constitute more than 30 percent. This had made it very difficult for Lalu to ensure the victory of his wife and daughter.

Even if RJD and its allies win in good number, the defeat of both his family members will prove fatal for his future politics. His clout in RJD will fall considerably and it will be almost impossible for him to pass on his baton of leadership to his sons or daughters. Victory of even one of his family members will raise his morale, but another problem may arise for him. If he dose extremely well and Nitish finds himself ditched by Muslim voters, he may try to rebuild bridge with BJP again. To prevent the comeback of Lalu and his family in power, even BJP leaders would like to embrace Nitish again. It is doubtful whether Lalu is competent to defeat the combined strength of BJP and JD(U) in future elections. (IPA Service)