This script totally runs counter to the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Mr. Narendra Modi's dictum that the ruling Congress stands 'decimated' and that the road is cleared for a BJP-led NDA Government. His party, though sure of 272 seats in the bag, for absolute majority, is taking no chances, however, and keeps trying to mend fences with estranged allies of the past. This is where the party President Mr Rajnath Singh plays his cards.

Whatever the outcomes for individual parties and expectations, some bloated, of regional majors, the curtain would come down on May 12 on one of the most crudely-fought campaigns in India's electoral history of 62 years. Also, no other Indian election hitherto had evoked as much global interest as this one with a basically controversial figure in Mr Narendra Modi, dubbed as 'divisive' and 'sectarian', leading the polls.

Be it said to his credit, Mr Modi, with an indomitable will, launched himself into a country-wide campaign for the highest office, upstaging political rivals. He also allowed himself no respite from keeping up a torrent of contemptuous attacks on Congress governance thereby giving his long stretch a somewhat negative slant, though he did throw some straws on his thinking on governance and development to take the country forward.

Foreign newspapers concede Mr Modi could be more decisive in his actions but also point to the danger of authoritarianism, concentrating power in himself. What has continually bothered the leading international periodicals is his RSS connections and failure to come out with an apology for the 2002 Gujarat massacres, an oft-repeated charge, raising questions as to whether he would seek to recast the Indian nationhood with a majoritarian bias.

But, in the world of big business and free market capitalism, to which UPA has also paid obeisance, Mr Modi gets a more positive rating as one who would proceed to stabilise the economy and revive investments and also push necessary reforms. What is more there would be effective governance, which eluded the Congress-led UPA Government over the last five years. And with its several fault-lines, the anti-incumbency factor appears to have driven a wedge in the disenchanted electorate.

A Modi-headed Government of BJP-led NDA, is reckoned as the most likely of the possibilities. Opinion poll predictions steadily raised up the numbers for NDA from around 250 to well past the 300-mark pegging UPA at 120 and odd. The Congress itself has not claimed more than 140, at the most, and yet strangely some of the leaders assume that the party could still have numbers to head a government.

A greater possibility is that BJP would be the largest party and, buttressed by NDA partners, could easily cross the 272 mark to form the next Government. Also, it looks more confidently to striking deals with one or more of the stronger regional parties for a safe Modi-headed government. Such an eventuality cannot be written off, short of a disastrous turn for BJP and an end to Modi ambitions at present.

Undaunted, leaders of other parties continue to assert their own strengths to emerge on May 16, given the bloated expectations of some of the regional majors. A competitive Third Front does not look credible from the way its leaders have their own visions not mutually compatible.

The Congress, having passively watched the Modi yatra for several weeks before waking up to his thundering advance, belatedly recovered its spirits to fight for battle honours and retain its political dominance. Yet, many of its agitated seniors including Mr P Chidambaram, none being able to checkmate him, preferred to opt out of contests.

And the battle was being waged by the Congress with fewer alliances than in the past and all alone, notably in southern states where it is known to have yielded ground to the regional and state-level parties. None of the state-level organisations, barring perhaps Karnataka and Kerala, is confident of making any significant gains.

The Congress President Ms. Sonia Gandhi, who has had to make extensive campaigning this time under pressure, found to her dismay the poor turn-out in Seemandhra region (which votes on May 7 for 25 seats), a reflection of protests over bifurcation of AP. She and Vice-President Mr Rahul Gandhi have had to face tough contests this time in their home constituencies of Rae Bareilly and Amethi respectively.

Even among regional majors, neither Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP nor Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s AIDMK appear to have hit the targets they had set for themselves with an eye on leadership at the Centre. These parties had also run up against the Modi gauntlet, as the BJP leader spared no territory, even if there was no discernible 'Modi Wave' barring traditional BJP strongholds.

May 16 counting would thus give us the emerging picture of strengths and weaknesses of national and regional/state-level parties. It is only then that a more realistic assessment on prospects of government formation can be made. But, with voting completed in three-fourths of constituencies (438 seats), parties have begun internal exercises on where they may be.

This has also triggered speculation on possible post-election realignments in a situation where there is no decisive outcome. Much would depend on how the regional parties decide on the best course to safeguard their interests and concerns. Some regional parties are keeping options open for post-poll arrangements.

What the Congress, the oldest national organisation, should do to remain relevant without yielding its honour in the conduct of national affairs, in power or if forced to sit in opposition, is also engaging the party leaders though they are speaking in different voices such as on whether the Congress would lead a government of non-BJP parties as UPA-III or provide support from outside to a so-called Third Party Government.

The Congress President Ms. Sonia Gandhi is discreetly quiet on this but the Vice-President Mr Rahul Gandhi has begun to assert that the party would have numbers to form a Government and has ruled out support to a Third Front Government. Other party leaders would await the results.

Interestingly, the CPI(M) leader Mr Prakash Karat has offered 'unconditional support' of the Left Front to the Congress which, he says, has to play a role in forming a secular alternative “to keep out BJP and Mr Narendra Modi”. Apparently Mr Karat's statement is based on the premise of an indecisive verdict on May 16. It is the Left parties that took the initiative, in the run-up to the Lok Sabha poll, in promoting a Third Front of parties belonging neither to BJP nor the Congress. (IPA Service)