This somewhat pessimistic assessment comes from security analysts and intelligence sources based in Kolkata and the NE states.

In recent months, Chinese media references to India have been mixed if not contradictory. The Peoples' Daily in an editorial referred to the recent talks between Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao at the ASEAN-India summit as “a gentle breeze” that blew away misunderstandings. But the paper some days ago also attacked India for its role and behaviour on south Asia, its “wars against China and Pakistan”. In a clear reference to India's present bonhomie with the US, it noted what it called India's penchant for “befriending the far” and alienating the near.

In disseminating such alternately hot and cold signals, the Chinese are resorting to the time-honoured tenets of traditional diplomacy: keep everybody guessing about one's intentions, make the process of judgment as difficult as possible. Sudden tensions are built and then allowed to dissolve on their own. Yet, not a single contentious issue between the two countries — the border question, the status of Arunachal Pradesh, even of Sikkim — has been settled.

Disturbingly for India, there are new signs that the Chinese are listening once more to certain insurgent groups operating in India's Northeast region. Their strategic interest in Arunachal Pradesh has been renewed. They are solidly entrenched in energy-rich Myanmar, using its ports to outflank India in the seas.

The only encouraging sign for India in the East is better co-operation with Bangladesh now ruled by Awami League. During the BNP regime headed by Mrs Khaleda Zia, military understanding between Dhaka and Beijing had culminated in the latter winning special operating rights that enables it to monitor all North-bound flights out of Kolkata, Guwahati or Agartala airports and airfields.

As geo-political realities in the region undergo a change, India's immediate SAARC neighbours, keen not to offend China, have adopted a neutral bystander role in the rivalry between the two Asian giants. Significantly, the only international support for India, on the question of Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, has come from the US.

Regarding the proposed schemes to build a dam on the rivar Tsangpo (Brahmaputra in the upper reaches of Tibet) and divert its waters to the drier regions of Western China, The Chinese, working upstream, enjoy a natural territorial advantage. First reports came from John Horgan, an environmental expert, and reproduced in an Indian magazine, over a decade back. About 1526 kilometres of the river flow through China before it enters Indian territory and flows along another 918 km into the Bay of Bengal. As it is, because of global warming and other reasons, major rivers like the Ganga are dying out, the Nile in Egypt is in a reduced state, the Jamuna is almost dry, England has lost 15% of the water flow in its rivers. In recent years, Bangladesh and India do not get much water from the Himalayan rivers during the dry season from October to March. This has already caused enormous problems for millions of people in terms of their economic, livelihoods and basic health.

If the waters of the Brahmaputra were to be diverted, the ecological and economic impact on the peoples of Eastern and Northeast India would be too catastrophic to contemplate.

The Chinese, according to Prime Minister Dr Singh, have said that they are not building a dam on the Brahmaputra close to its source in Tibet. He briefed Arunachal Chief Minister Dorji Khandu and other state leaders in Delhi on his conversation with Mr.Jiabao at the ASEAN summit. But from other available reports, it seems some heavy construction is on at the Zangmu site and a 540 MW power generation project is definitely on schedule. To this day, no one except the Chinese, really know just what is being done at the site.

Given this uneasy backdrop, there is much to be said for the view that India must press China to declare its short and long terms plans in the region publicly. The issue is too grave and complicated to be left at the level of experts who have been exchanging occasional data on floods in the Himalayan region since 2006.

In fact, India could learn from the Bangladesh experience and internationalise the issue before it is too late. Bangladesh had effectively raised the Farakka dam and attendant problems in various international fora until it got a satisfactory working mechanism after a series of meetings with India. Indeed, the Bangladeshi diplomatic effort had proved far more successful in dealing with the Farakka issue, than Pakistan's heavy-handed diplomatic initiative on the Kashmir dispute.

It is time for India to do the same regarding China's pet projects in Tibet involving the Brahmaputra river. A relentless pressure of opinion can be built up by mobilising concerned states, governments, NGOs, and international agencies. Bangladesh has already voiced its concerns to China. It is a sign of hope that the Government of India now proposes to take the matter up at the Foreign Ministry level with China.

The issue will also have an unforeseen impact of India's domestic development strategies. Recently, a clutch of organisations and Peoples' fora from Arunachal Pradesh called upon the Government of India to accord top priority to tackle the Brahmaputra river issue with China and make sure that no big dam was allowed to be built on the river. With equal earnestness, they also appealed to New Delhi not to proceed with its own plans to build dams on rivers flowing through Arunachal, because the ecological devastation and subsequent damage would be the same. Bangladesh, as well as Manipur and other NE states, have expressed reservations about the Tipaimukh dam project; environmentalist organisations and old settled tribes have done the same about the heavy-duty hydro power projects in Sikkim.

Instead of dismissing all environmentalists as foreign agents, it would be more advisable for policymakers at the central and state levels to pay more heed to the grounds of their objections and analyse them at length. (IPA Service)