Though, Nitish has lost moral authority to be CM of Bihar, these days politics is not run on the basis of morality. So long a leader or a party has number, he or it can run his or its government even without morality. But numerically, too, Nitish does not seem to be very strong. After his dissociation from BJP, he is running a minority government and faces assembly with the help of 4 Congress, 1 CPI and 4 independent legislators.

A lot of water has flown in the Ganges after the last Assembly session of Bihar and namy legislators have since resigned and changed sides inviting their disqualifications under anti defection act and most of them are JD(U) legislators. Assembly by-polls have taken place in 5 constituencies as well and the results there are not favoring Nitish. The more fearful fact for Nitish is that the legislators may leave his Dal in herds further weakening him.

Nitish Kumar may not be aware of the happenings on ground level, but he knows what is happening in power politics of Patna. He knows that his government is in danger. So what are the options before him? One of the option before him is to return to the NDA fold, but it is not easy for him to do so. First of all, he has his own political credibility, which he would not like to sacrifice for the sake of power. Secondly, his decision to be back to NDA will need the approval of Narendra Modi and Modi is not likely to oblige him. He has good relationship with LK Advani. It is alleged that he was opposing Modi’s emergence as national leader of BJP only at the behest of LK Advani. Now, Advani himself has become weaker, that is why Nitish cannot expect support from him.

RJD of Lalu Yadav, too, has suffered defeat in Bihar. Lalu was powered by MY (Muslim- Yadav) political combination. This combination works, when there is lower turnout of voters, but turnout is high, this combination does not ensure victory in many constituencies. The sinking of MY combination in Modi waves is the result of higher voting percentage. 66 per cent of total population of Bihar belongs to OBCs – out of them 12 per cent are Muslims, while the rest 54 per cent are Hindus. The victory of BJP has resulted because of the OBC status of Narendra Modi. At least 50 per cent of Hindu OBCs have voted for BJP and its alliance partner to make Modi the next Prime Minister. Weaker sections among OBCs have turned not only against Lalu, but also against Nitish complaining that they have empowered only their caste men and ignore the rest of the OBCs. Now they have taken revenge against them by voting for Modi, who himself belongs to a weaker OBC. This has resulted in the decimation of not only Nitish, but also of Lalu.

Had Lalu fared better, it might have been easier for Nitish to come back to NDA by scaring the BJP leaders of comeback of jungle raj of Lalu. But, unfortunately for Nitish, Lalu, too, has lost. So there is no fear of comeback of Lalu in the minds of people of Bihar as of now. Hence, his return to the NDA does not seem possible. Now he can save his government by aligning with Lalu Yadav. Is it possible? It seems to be almost impossible, but anything can happen in politics. A fear of immediate Assembly election may force Lalu to give some breathing time for it. Lalu himself would like this Modi wave to subside. It is just a speculation. The distance between Lalu and Nitish has so widened that it does not seem possible at the moment.

The third option of Nitish is to go for midterm Assembly poll. After the defeat it is not possible for him to keep his flock together and ensure the majority support of his government with the help of Congress and some independent MLAs. BJP leaders would themselves not allow him to be comfortable in his government. So going for the midterm Assembly election is a distinct possibility. Even after the defeat, Nitish may think of reviving his political fortunes during Assembly elections, because he has really performed better as CM, when we compared with his predecessors. He has cultivated his own vote banks, which might not help him in Lok Sabha election, but which can come to his rescue in Assembly election. That is why dissolution of Bihar Assembly and midterm poll is yet another option.

BJP may try to form his own government by engineering defections from JD(U). Under anti defection act, two third MLAs are required to cause a split. It is not easier to have 80 JD(U) MLAs to split the party. But, the split will become easier, if Sharad Yadav splits with Nitish. If Sharad Yadav dumps Nitish and decides to go with BJP, Nitish will have to show that he has support of more than 80 MLAs to avoid anti defection act, because Sharad Yadav is President of Janata Dal (U). It should be remembered that Sharad Yadav had opposed the dissociation of JD(U) from NDA, when Nitish had forced it. The political situation is very fluid in Bihar and anything can happen. (IPA Service)