True, Kerala has managed to stop the ‘Modi tsunami’ in as much as that the BJP has failed to realize its long-standing dream of opening its account from the state. But that is cold comfort, given the alarming surge in saffron strength in terms of the party’s spread and rise in vote percentage.

The frenetic pace at which the BJP has grown in the State can be gauged from the fact that its vote share has gone up from 6.4 in 2009 to 10.8 in 2014. While the party polled over 10 lakh votes in 2009, in 2014, it has secured an impressive 18,56,750 votes, representing an increase of over 8 lakh votes in five years! A more ominous development is that, for the first time in the electoral history of Kerala, the BJP has managed to come first in four assembly constituencies – Thiruvananthapuram, Nemom, Vattiyoorkavu and Kazhakkoottam - that form part of the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat!

No less significant is the fact that senior BJP leader O. Rajagopal came tantalizingly close to winning the Thiruvananthapuram seat. He lost it to Congress’s Shashi Tharoor only after giving the latter the fright of his life – the margin of victory being a meagre 15,000 votes as against the whopping 99,000-vote majority Tharoor had in 2009. Again, In Kasargode, BJP’s general secretary in Kerala, K. Surendran, came second in two assembly constituencies: Manjeshwaram and Kasargode.

The ‘Modi wave’ has also given a booster shot to the concept of a third front led by the BJP in Kerala. It is against this backdrop that the broad hint dropped by Kerala Congress(M) chief, K. M. Mani that the BJP is not an untouchable as far as KC(M) is considered has to be viewed. That pithy remark opens up the possibilities of a change in political equations in the State.

Conversely, the shrinking space for the secular parties is a matter of grave concern, which both the UDF and the LDF can ignore only at their own peril. In other words, the Kerala verdict represents a rude wake-up call to the secular parties in the State. Failure to snap out of their sense of complacency will result in the fate of West Bengal befalling Kerala as well. In this election, the Bengal CPI(M) has had to endure the ignominy of competing with the BJP in terms of seats, both the parties having won two seats each!

As for the Congress-led UDF, the front is drawing comfort from the fact that it has won more seats than the LDF – 12 as against the latter’s 8. But in reality, the UDF has suffered a loss of four seats because it had won 16 seats in 2009. What must hurt the Congress in particular is that the LDF has wrested four seats: Kannur, Chalakkudy, Idukki and Thrissur, all won by Congress candidates in 2009. Adding insult to injury is the 5-percent drop in its vote percentage: from 47.7 in 2009 to 42.4 in 2014.

Chief Minister Oommen Chandy emerged stronger despite the below-par performance of the Congress in the State! But that is unlikely to induce KPCC president V M Sudheeran into softening his stance on various issues. If anything, the post-poll scenario could see an intensification of the tussle between Chandy and Sudheeran. Already, the duo is sharply divided on the issue of renewal of licence of 418 closed bars in the state. Another issue on which confrontation is likely to build up is the reclamation of wetlands and paddy fields in the state. While Sudheeran says a final decision in the matter should be taken only after taking the people into confidence, the CM favours legislation to accelerate the filling up of paddy fields and wetlands for speedier industrialization. The coming weeks could see a new high in the war of words between the two.

As far as the LDF is concerned, the front has improved its performance by doubling its strength from 4 seats in 2009 to 8 in 2014 (CPI-M – 5, CPI – 1, Independents – 2). But what has taken the sheen off the show is the fact that the LDF’s performance fell far short of its expectations. The front was expecting to win at lest 12 seats. True, it has wrested four seats from Congress. But it also lost three seats narrowly, especially Vadakara, by a whisker.

Why is the Left’s performance not what it should have been? A closer look would show that factors ranging from vote leak to consolidation of minority votes were at work. For instance, in Kasargode, sitting CPI(M) MP P. Karunakaran won but his majority came down drastically from 64,000 to less than 7,000 in 2014. The reason was the sharp polarization of the minority vote which followed the release of the BJP manifesto that highlighted the core demands of the party, including a uniform civil code and renewed accent on the construction of the Ram temple.

What must worry the CPI(M) the most is the erosion of its vote strength in constituencies like Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam and Kozhikode. The biggest blow to the CPI(M) has been the defeat of its Politbburo member, M. A. Baby in Kollam to RSP’s N. K. Premachandran. Although the full might of the CPI(M)’s organizational machinery was pressed into service, Baby was unable to win the seat. More than the victory it is the victory margin – more than 37,000 – which must rankle the CPI(M). The party must learn the lessons from the Kollam loss: You cannot ride rough shod over the sensibilities of smaller allies. If only the CPI(M) had conceded the RSP demand for the Kollam seat, the party would not have crossed over to the UDF camp. The result of the failure to do so was an embarrassing loss of a crucial seat and a long-standing ally. Baby has offered to resign in the wake of the humiliating defeat.

The only consolation for the CPI(M) is that its experiment of fielding Independents in constituencies hostile to the LDF has succeeded partially. Two CPI(M)-backed Independents have won from Idukki and Chalakkudy, traditional Congress strongholds. Also, unlike the UDF which suffered a 5-per cent vote loss, the LDF’s drop in vote percentage is only 1.73.

In the ultimate analysis, both the UDF and the LDF have their task cut out in the post-poll setting. Both the fronts will have to go back to the basics: strengthening their base – an unavoidable task if there is to be no further erosion in the strength of the secular forces. The emergence of a BJP Government at the Centre should also blunt the edge of the hostility between the UDF and the LDF in the face of the ‘common danger’. The consequences of the failure to do so would be disastrous for a state like Kerala, one of the few remaining secular bastions, which have become vulnerable to the attacks of saffron forces. The need of the hour is to defend, to borrow a Nehruvian phrase, the secular space with all their might. (IPA Service)