Once again Uttar Pradesh has shocked many poll analysts. BJP and its allies have got 73 seats, 71 won by BJP itself. The rest were won by two dynasties. Mulayam Singh Yadav and his family members won in 5 constituencies, while two seats were won by Sonia and Rahul. Uttar Pradesh is home to around 5 crores of Muslims, but not a single Muslim candidate won the election. What happened in Uttar Pradesh is not difficult to analyze. The social dynamics of Uttar Pradesh are influencing the election results and the winners hardly pay any heed to those dynamics and that is why the result in the next election is different from the earlier one.

Now question is what will be the result of the next election? Will BJP repeat its performance or UP is going to give another jolt to the political analysts? There is no denying the fact that BJP is organizationally very weak in UP. During last Assembly elections, it could got only 47 seats, which was its worst performance since 1989 Assembly elections. Most of its candidates have lost their deposits and many of them could not get even 5000 votes. And within two and half years, BJP got its best ever performance.

If we see the change in political scenario of UP after each election the reason for it is the floating votes of marginalized castes belonging to OBCs and Dalits. They are the victims of the change that took place due to Mandal and Mandir movement. Individually, their number is not significant, but if combined together, they become a formidable force to change the side of winners and losers. Unfortunately, their contribution in influencing the election is never recognized by either political parties or analysts. In 2007 elections, they put their weight behind Mayawati because of her Bahujan slogans, but Mayawati attributed her victory to the combination of Dalit (read her own caste Jatav), Muslim and Brahmins. Dissatisfied with her, they moved towards Congress giving its candidates victory in 22 Lok Sabha seats. Again Congress analyzed its victory due to the return of Muslims in its fold.

Enthused by the victory in 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Congress started a campaign named Mission 2012 under Rahul Gandhi to form its own government or at least emerge as the king maker of UP. The Anna movement stumped Rahul efforts in big way and the disturbing the OBCs quota proved suicidal for Congress in Uttar Pradesh. To consolidate Muslim support Mayawati was writing one letter after another to provide quota to Muslims in government jobs and the Central Government bifurcated 27 percent of OBCs quota on communal basis. This enraged the marginalized OBCs, who turned towards Mulayam, who seemed to be best bet to save their quota. The communal division of 27 percent had prepared a ground for BJP, because it was the only party, which had spoken against it.

BJP won election with the help of the same floating votes. Muslim Dalit Brahmin alliance of Mayawati failed to cut ice and all her candidates lost the election. She has given tickets to 21 Brahmins and 19 Muslims in the hope that they will get the votes of their caste and community and supplemented by Dalits, most of them will win. But this did not happen, because of the consolidation of floating votes along BJP side. The caste background of Modi helped BJP to do the miracle. He himself belongs to a marginalized OBC caste and the consolidation of this group behind him was total. Communal polarization further strengthened the saffron party. Many incidents of communal tension and riots have taken place between Dalits and Muslim and the affected Dalits became the natural voters of BJP. Even Brahmins, who form the second largest caste of UP, were more or less with BJP. All these factors helped BJP to win 73 seats with its ally Apna Dal.

The restless floating voters are deciding the fate of candidates and it is difficult to predict, which side they will take during the next assembly election of 2017, when Samajwadi Party will seek another mandate. But one thing is certain, the caste politics of UP and Bihar has changed forever after Narendra Modi now entering into its scene. BJP has got stigma of an anti OBC and Dalit party because of its opposition of Mandal and caste based reservation. Now this stigma has been wiped out to great extent. Since Narendra Modi is believed to have got PM post with the help of upper caste people, hence the caste animosity between OBCs and upper castes people have been diluted. This will also decide the contours of caste politics of the cow belt.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, Mayawati is the biggest looser. Her loss seems to be irreversible, because she has openly gone against her political philosophy of Bahujanvad by giving 21 seats to Brahmins. In this process she has lost many of her committed supporters. Once, she is weak in her own home, she cannot expect the support of either Muslims or Brahmins. So far as Mulayam Singh is concerned, he can still bounce back, if BJP fails to fulfill the expectations of people. Samajwadi Party has lost the election, but Mulayam has been able to save his prestige. (IPA Service).