In February, 2005 Assembly election, 75 MLAs of his Rashtriya Janata Dal had emerged victorious and in the next Assembly election held in November of the same year, the number of his RJD MLAs was reduced to be 55. In 2009 Lok Sabha election, only four candidates of his Dal could get elected. He was one of them, but he had lost another seat fought by him simultaneously. Since he had ditched the Congress before 2009 election, the then ruling party did not oblige him by making him a Central Minister, though he continued to support the UPA2. In the Assembly election held in 2011, Lalu’s RJD tasted a humiliating defeat by winning just 22 seats, whereas it was holding 55 seats in the previous Assembly.

It can be seen in the figures above how Lalu was losing his political ground in Bihar. Adding salt to his injury he got convicted in fodder scam and was sentenced for the crime. He lost his own Lok Sabha membership and was barred to contest any election again, because of that conviction. Anyway, he got bail and tried his level best to remain relevant in the politics of Bihar by performing better in the Lok Sabha election of 2014. This was his last chance and he failed again. Though his RJD was successful in retaining the previous figure of 4 Lok Sabha members, his wife and daughter lost the polls.

After losing the last election, Lalu Yadav is facing the danger of losing hold on his RJD. Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav is now in RJD. He has demonstrated his strength and popularity by defeating the JD (U) President Sharad Yadav from Madhepura. Not only this, his wife Ranjit Ranjan has also won on Congress ticket. Naturally, many political observers expect him to emerge as the natural leader of RJD after the complete political demise of Lalu Yadav. Many close associates of Lalu have left him. There was a time, when Ram Kripal Yadav used to be a shadow of Lalu, now he is in BJP. In fact it was Ram Kripal, who defeated his daughter Misa from Pataliputra Lok Sabha constituency. It should be recalled that when Lalu was in jail after getting convicted, it was Ram Kripal Yadav who stood solidly behind him. Now in a situation like that, it will be difficult to find leader like Ram Kripal to stand by him. The prospect of getting convicted again in another fodder scam is brighter. This has further made Lalu very nervous.

His support to Manjhi government can be seen in this background. Not only is he providing unconditional support to Manjhi government, he also supported JD (U) to help win its two Rajya Sabha candidates in bye elections recently. Lalu has turned so weak that he could not even bargain with Nitish Kumar to send one of his family members in Rajya Sabha in return for helping him to send two of his men in the upper house of the Parliament. What Nitish had to do was just an appeal to Lalu to help his JD (U) to win the elections to thwart the possibility of BJP to capture the power in Bihar.

Pushed to the wall, Lalu has suddenly rediscovered the Mandal mantra. He is now asking all the Mandal forces including Nitish to join hands to keep BJP out. Earlier Lalu was ranting secular mantra to keep BJP out. When he had announced the unconditional support to Manjhi government he was talking of keeping “communal BJP” out of power. When he had supported the two JD (U) candidates in Rajya Sabha bye poll, he continued with the same rhetoric. But, now he is talking of Mandal forces.

The million dollar question is will his caste rhetoric be able to stir the politics of Bihar? Can he bring the politics of Bihar 20 years back, when he had won two third majority with his left alliance partners in undivided Bihar in 1995 Assembly elections? Interestingly, in that election Nitish Kumar was fighting against him and lost miserably and he could save his political career only by aligning with BJP.

A lot of water has flown through Ganga in the last 20 years and the social order of the state has seen a sea change in the last two decades. The social status of two OBC castes, i.e., Yadava and Kurmi has risen and they can be hardly called now socially backward, a phrase used in our Constitution to give special rights to Socially and Educationally Backward Classes. Lalu and Nitish symbolize the new status achieved by these two castes. Their empowerment and rise in social status have made other OBCs jealous of the two castes and they are hardly going to align with them in the name of Mandal or Social Justice.

In fact this alienation of OBCs from these two upwardly mobile castes made Narendra Modi the most popular leader of Bihar. The OBC status of Narendra Modi proved costly for both Lalu and Nitish, who were beneficiaries of the OBCs strength of Bihar. With Narendra Modi at its top, BJP was able to penetrate the OBCs mass base of Bihar and record handsome victory. The supporters of Lalu and Nitish tried their level best to dub Narendra Modi as upper caste Marwari of Gujarat by citing the upper caste status of Sushil Kumar Modi, but the caste conscious people of Bihar did not accept it.

In fact, the caste politics in Bihar has moved ahead, whereas Lalu wants to reinvent the year of 1990s. History is not going to oblige him by repeating itself. Even the caste alliance of two upwardly mobile OBCs is not going to make any difference. This alliance may further consolidate the support of other OBCs behind BJP. Not only marginalized OBCs, but almost all upper caste people will get polarized along BJP. Hence, igniting the Mandal fire may prove costly for Lalu. It may help him to maintain his hold on RJD temporarily, but in election, this strategy of igniting Mandal fire may backfire on him.(IPA Service)