As per the CPI(M)’s constitution, state secretaries who have completed three terms will have to make way for a new secretary. Pinarayi has already completed 15 years at the helm of the party, which has passed through turbulent times during his tenure.

The Kerala CPI(M) faced the biggest crisis since its inception during his rule in the wake of the brutal murder of Revolutionary Marxist Party (RMP) leader, T. P. Chandrashekharan. The sentence of three CPI(M) leaders to life imprisonment for their involvement in the murder shook the party to its very foundations. That the party has survived the serious threat to its existence bears testimony to Vijayan’s leadership qualities.

Another major test which Vijayan faced was the SNC Lavalin case in which he was an accused. To the big relief of the party, he has managed to come out of it unscathed, so far, as the CBI has come to the conclusion that he has not made any monetary gains from the deal the Kerala Government struck with the Canadian firm for modernization of three Kerala power plants.

Though many names are doing the rounds, it is obvious that Politburo member and former State Home Minister, Kodiyeri Balakrishnan has emerged as the front runner to become the new Kerala CPI(M) secretary. There are several factors which favour Kodiyeri. First and foremost, he enjoys the confidence of Vijayan, who will have a big say in the matter. An additional plus point is his being a senior Politburo member from Kerala. Kodiyeri is an affable personality, who is accessible to all, unlike Vijayan whose tough exterior makes people wary of him and keeps them at arm’s length. That way, Kodiyeri is all that what Vijayan is not. His media-friendly image is also bound to stand him in good stead in the job he may be called upon to take up.

The only minus point if it can be called one is that he belongs to the same district as Pinarayi – Kannur. It remains to be seen whether the Kannur lobby will continue to enjoy the unchallenged supremacy it enjoyed during Vijayan’s tenure. There are significant straws in the wind which show that an emerging lobby from the south is straining at the leash and could pose problems to the Kannur lobby.

If Kodiyeri fails to make it to the top post, then there are other Vijayan loyalists who are waiting in the wings. Prominent among them are M. V. Govindan and former electricity minister, A. K. Balan. Both enjoy Vijayan’s confidence and are sure to carry forward the legacy which he will leave behind.

Be that as it may, it does not mean that there are no leaders from the southern Kerala who can step into Vijayan’s shoes. Topping the list is Politburo member, M. A. Baby, followed by former Finance Minister, Thomas Isaac. Both were, originally, a part of the official group led by Vijayan. But, of late, the duo have made conscious efforts to firm up their own space.

Baby, for instance, would seem to have drifted away from the present leadership, especially after his defeat from Kollam in the Lok Sabha elections. Baby is known to be unhappy on two counts: he is said to nurse a grievance against the Kerala leadership for its ‘failure’ to ensure his victory. He also feels that certain remarks made by the party secretary against his RSP opponent, N. K. Premachandran, alienated a big chunk of voters from the CPI(M), resulting in his defeat. In fact, Baby was determined to resign his MLA’s post in the wake of the LS polls, but only reluctantly agreed to carry on at the party’s prodding. That is the public perception.

Since then, Baby has embarrassed the party on a few occasions. The latest instance in which he caused a few party eyebrows to be raised relates to his statement favouring a CPI(M)-CPI merger. The temper of the times, Baby said, demanded that the two parties make a sincere attempt at reunification to battle the communal forces. Baby’s statement found a responsive echo among a host of CPI leaders in the state, too. But Baby retracted the statement, again, following pressure from the central as well as State CPI(M) leadership.

All this has made Baby ‘unacceptable’ to the official group led by Pinarayi Vijayan, it is pointed out. Indications are that Baby’s candidature would evoke opposition from the ‘Kannur lobby’.

Likewise, Thomas Isaac is also unlikely to find favour with the official group. Isaac’s tendency to take a neutral line on many issues, has not been to the liking of the Kannur lobby. It may be mentioned that Isaac was one of the few leaders who opined that Vs Achuthanandan should not be alienated and that efforts be made to take VS along so that the party becomes stronger. (IPA Service)