But, it’s different now after the general election. The gains made by the BJP in the state have seemingly convinced the chief minister that the Modi wave is not a chimera. The erosion in the Trinamool Congress’s vote share means that the popular mood is changing.

The reason is obvious – at least to a neutral observer. It is that the Trinamool leader has failed to make the transition from being a rabble-rouser to an administrator. She has remained a quintessential agitator – somewhat like Arvind Kejriwal – who is seemingly uninterested in the nitty-gritty of governance either because she lacks the patience to pore over files or doesn’t have a vision for implementation.

Having given the final push to bring down the Left Front which was rotting from within, she is unable to chart out the direction which the government must follow. It is this lack of purposefulness, especially with regard to the economy, which has become palpable in the three years that she has been in office with the result that her erstwhile supporters, mainly the middle class, have become restless.

Their disillusionment has been increased by the lawlessness in which the Trinamool cadres are suspected of being involved. To the middle class, the scene is no different from what it was under the Left, whose government was also directionless because of its inability to reverse the flight of capital for which the militant trade union tactics of the comrades were responsible.

In addition, the Marxist cadres were as anarchic as the Trinamool supporters are today. There is also the suspicion that in terms of personnel, many of them are one and the same, having switched to the ruling side to evade the long arm of the law.

It is the failure of governance and an inability, or perhaps unwillingness, to control the rampaging cadres which have helped the BJP to let down roots in a state where it had little influence earlier. Having been disenchanted with both the communists and Trinamool, the average person is now apparently turning to the only remaining option, which is the BJP, encouraged by Narendra Modi’s emphasis on economic growth. The impression that the prime minister conveys of being a hands-on administrator must have also helped his party to grow in West Bengal.

It is not impossible, therefore, that the rise in the percentage of the BJP’s vote from around six to 16.8 per cent during 2009-2014 Lok Sabha polls period will receive a further boost in the assembly elections two years from now. The BJP may not be able to form a government, but the decline in the Trinamool’s position will be a blow to Mamata’s prestige. Having projected herself as the only substantial political force in West Bengal and shunning her former partner, the Congress, in the process, Mamata has tried to build a larger-than-life image of herself.

An electoral setback will have a highly demoralizing effect, therefore, making it extremely difficult for her to recover the lost ground in future elections. Hence, the speculation about a recourse to the unthinkable – an understanding with the Left.

Since there are no permanent friends or foes in politics, only permanent interests, as the British politician, Lord Palmerstone, famously said in the 19th century, a coming together of two former adversaries who are both in distress cannot be ruled out. Such a turn of events will not be exceptional in the context of the recent example in Bihar, where Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar have decided to bury their enmity and join hands to fight the BJP.

However, this alliance is a little different since both were once in the same camp unlike Mamata and the commissars who have always been mortal enemies, so much so that a Marxist supporter once attacked Mamata physically during a street demonstration in Kolkata in 1990, requiring her prolonged hospitalization with head injuries.

Curiously, it is the BJP which used to be Mamata’s ally. Even after Mamata’s assumption of office, the BJP tried to woo her, especially after her break with the Congress. The Trinamool leader, however, has rarely been politically savvy where politics outside the state is concerned. She made a bloomer when trying to tie up with Mulayam Singh Yadav during her bid to block Pranab Mukherjee’s candidature for the President’s post and again when she tried to form the core of federal front with the help of Anna Hazare just before the general election.

On both occasions, she was dumped by her supposed friends presumably because they realized that she has no worthwhile game plan. Now, her present plight when she is facing a serious challenge for the first time in West Bengal will make her even more friendless than before. For West Bengal, the change in the political scene from a predominantly Leftist orientation to a right-of-centre ambience via a blundering centrist formation will be a matter of considerable interest to social scientists. (IPA Service)