Amit Shah might have been declared the “Man of the Match” of the last Lok Sabha elections by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but after assuming the Party Presidentship, the results of all by polls have proved nightmares for him. In Uttarakhand by polls, BJP drew a blank; in Bihar it could win only 4 seats, whereas it had got lead in 8 out of 10 constituencies during the last Lok Sabha elections. BJP even could not win in 6 constituencies held by it earlier.

Uttar Pradesh is different from Uttarakhand and Bihar in the sense that Amit Shah was in charge of this state during and before Lok Sabha election and the credit of massive victory had gone solely to him. A loss in Uttar Pradesh will be a loss not only to BJP, but it may affect the prestige Amit Shah holds inside his party. The delay in his anointment as Party President suggests that his crowning was not an unchallenged affair. It is natural that a bad result for BJP in Uttar Pradesh by polls may embolden those elements of BJP, who were not much enthusiastic in his installment as the Party head.

Our of 11 Assembly seats, 10 were held by BJP and the rest one was held by its ally Apna Dal previously. The vacancies have caused due to the election of the seat holders as Members of Lok Sabha. Hence the victory in each and every seat is important for BJP. Loss of even a single seat will be the loss of face from BJP. The Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat was won by Mulayam Singh Yadav, who resigned because of his decision to retain Azamgarh, which was also won by him. Mainpuri is a stronghold of Mulayam Singh Yadav and he had not even cared to campaign during the last election. If BJP wins this seat (which is almost impossible), then Amit Shah will become a hero, even after a loss in some of the Assembly seats, where by polls are taking place.

For Mulayam Singh Yadav, there is nothing to lose in Assembly by polls, but his prestige is at stake in Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat. Even a victory on three or four seats will be dubbed as the victory of his party. Anyway, the Akhilesh government is not going to be affected by the result of these polls.

For last many elections, SP and BSP used to be the main contestants in UP, but BSP has decided to keep itself out of the fray. There was a time, when Kanshiram and Mayawati wanted more and more elections, on the plea that their support base (read dalits) emerged more politicized after each election and they (Kanshram and Mayawati) emerge stronger even without winning any seat. Now, Mayawati thinks it wise to keep away from the elections, so that her weakness is not exposed. Her decision to keep her party out of the fray may not help her politically, because the politicized Dalits are not expected to keep themselves indoor during the elections. Mayawati supporters are anti Mulayam and they are likely to support BJP candidates to defeat him and in this process they may come in contact with BJP cadres and Mayawati may lose some of them for good.

In the absence of BSP, Congress had got an opportunity to reclaim the support of Dalits, who used to be its traditional supporters prior to the emergence of Kanshiram in UP politics. Dalits have still soft corner for Congress and they would have voted for it in considerable number, had it fought these by polls seriously. But Congress has not emerged from the shock of Lok Sabha election, in which it could win only two seats from Uttar Pradesh. It should be mentioned that only Sonia and Rahul could win Lok Sabha election from Uttar Pradesh and their victory was possible because Samajwadi Party had not fielded its candidates against them.

Congress has fielded its candidates, but it has done it only to fulfill the formality to contest elections. Rahul Gandhi is not campaigning in the election and candidates themselves are not making any impact. This has provided opportunities to BJP to prey upon the Dalit supporters of Mayawati, who would like to see the SP candidates defeated.

The election of Uttar Pradesh is always marred by caste and community politics. Parties and their leaders use them as tools to mobilize the support of voters. These by polls are not exception; rather the use of communalism has surpassed all the previous record. Uttar Pradesh is the land of Ram Janma Bhoomi temple and there was communal campaigning during the heyday of Ram Temple movement as well. But communal campaign used to be counterbalanced somewhat by caste politics. This time caste politics has taken back seat, and communal campaign is dominating the scene. Polarization of Hindus along communal line was feared even by Mulayam Singh and he has put up only one Muslim candidate in the fray despite the fact that around half of the Assembly seats facing by polls have Muslim voters in considerable number. Not only this, Muslim face of Samajwadi Party Azam Khan is not campaigning for the party fearing a Hindu backlash.

BJP and its leaders are trying its best to exploit the environment of communal tension prevailing in the state for quite some time. During last Lok Sabha elections, BJP leaders were not much vocal in generating the communal passion, but now they are leaving no stone unturned to garner the support of the majority community.

The result of the by polls will set the mood of both SP and BJP and also BSP for the next UP assembly elections, and they would devise their won caste and communal strategy to face the elections in 2017. (IPA Service)