The outcome of the by-elections, Sen told media representatives, was “unexpected”. This at a time when it is big news these days, if a left candidate wins an election somewhere at any level in Bengal—be it panchayats, civic bodies, Parliament or Assembly. That has been the trend since the panchayat elections, followed by the Lok Sabha polls, then one round of civic elections and now these assembly by-elections.

Clearly, Mr. Sen was either simply speaking for effect, or was in a minority of one. No left leader even suggested that that the ruling Left Front, which lost 9 out of 10, would rally round and give the now rampaging opposition a run for its money. Most candidates went through the motions, seeing the writing on the wall. Except at Kalchini, where the electorate is smaller and the winning margin against the left was only 6,000, the magnitude of defeat was bigger than in 2006 in eight other seats. At Goalpokhar, in north Bengal, the Forward Bloc managed a consolation win that did little to dispel the gloom at Alimuddin street.

Sen's reaction was probably not entirely honest in another sense. He knew as well as anyone else that going into these by-elections, the Front was not exactly confident. As things stood, the CPI(M) and the Front had a mountain to climb; the opposition parties held 7 out of the 10 seats anyway. Given the sea change that has come over the political scenario since 2006, a rout was certainly on the cards and the Goalpokhar win was no more than the proverbial last cigarette offered to a person sentenced to death.

Reactions were along predictable lines. LF Chairman Biman Bose was unusually reticent for once, saying that the outcome had been” accepted “and an “analysis” would soon begin. True to form, Forward Bloc and the RSP leaders in a veiled reference to the CPI(M) expressed concern over the growing distance between the common people and the left. Now that the CPI(M) is under fire from all directions, its allies have picked up the courage to take potshots at their big brother, something they did not dare when Mr. Jyoti Basu was at the helm. The CPI observed restraint, without blaming anyone.

But divisions surfaced within the left camp. Minister from Socialist party, Kiranmay Nanda, voiced the general public feeling when he suggested that the Front would do better to resign and let fresh elections take place. “It is clear that the more we cling to power, the heavier our defeats will be.”

The sentiment is not exactly new. Right after the Lok Sabha polls, CPI(M) ideologue Dr Ashok Mitra had suggested the same thing.

Dr Mitra had argued that there was little time for the Front to get its act together and improve its administrative functioning. Its challenges were too big, whether it was the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha in North Bengal, the Trinamul Congress in the state or the Maoists in south Bengal. He did not seem convinced by the argument that a pepped up administration could yet work wonders in the months left for 2011 and impress the people. On the other hand, a resurgent Mamata Banerjee (Mitra with some justification sees her as a fascist) riding a crest of popularity will not only make things difficult for the left, she would also implement certain railway projects by force if needed. The left is caught between the proverbial rock and a very hard place. Good advice, but then Mitra never commanded a mass following within the left. He might have been whistling in the dark for all the effect his suggestion had.

Game to the last, only Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, aging by the day, keeps going through the motions of ruling, checking on status report on projects from the new personal secretariat he has created. There are flashes of good news: Wipro would set up a major unit in the state after all, Infosys is yet to decide. A 1600 megawatt power plant would be set up at Singur on the plot reserved for the Tata small car project, with BHEL participation

“Too little too late,” said political analyst Sabyasachi Basu Ray Choudhury. ”Neither these announcements, nor the activities of the secretariat matter any more. If they really wanted to rev up the working of the administration, why did they not implement the reforms suggested by their own experts earlier? Why such a major initiative comes at the fag end of your tenure when the people want you to go?”

In the months ahead, there would be another round of civic elections, with the fate of over 80 civic bodies including Kolkata Corporation to be decided. Once more, the left is making no claims. Cadres admit that it will be yet another drubbing. The front is caught without any answer even as questions are asked about its performance publicly, it is devoid of ideas.

The only glimmer of hope for the CPI(M) seems to be in restoring its snapped ties with the Congress at the Centre. In the last months of its tenure since 2006, the Front would need every bit of support it can get from the Centre. And it must thank humbly Dr Manmohan Singh, the bete noire of CPI(M) Secretary Prakash Karat. But for Singh's intervention, even Wipro would probably not have returned to West Bengal. The Centre is co-operating fully with the state in tackling the Maoist menace in South Bengal, offending Ms Banerjee in the process. It is not paying much heed to Ms Banerjee's hysterical screams demanding President's rule in the state.

It remains to be seen how the CPI(M) manages to keep the Congress in good humour in the months ahead, even as it picks up the shattered pieces of its fast crumbling edifice in Bengal. An ironical predicament for a party that broke away from the CPI in 1964 asserting it would never remain the tail of the Congress! (IPA)