BJP might be amused to see the heavy polling expecting and attributing it to Modi wave, but it does not seem to be so. Jharkhand is one of the states, which show different preference for Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections. In 2009 Lok Sabha election, BJP had bagged 8 out of 14 seats of the state. Naturally, it was assumed that BJP will have a cakewalk in Assembly elections held after that, but the result was not as expected by BJP leaders. In Lok Sabha elections, BJP candidates had led in around 50 Assembly constituencies, but in the Assembly elections held in the same year BJP could get only 18 out of 81. During 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP candidates led in 58 Assembly constituencies. This did not give enough confidence to BJP leaders to fight the elections alone and entered into alliance with All Jharkhand Students Union led by Sudesh Mahto and Lok Janshakti Party led by Ramvilas Paswan.

BJP leaders’ decision to go for an alliance in Jharkhand was just an indicator of its low confidence in the eastern state carved out by the division of Bihar. In unified Bihar, BJP was a strong force to reckon with in the Jharkhand region. In 1991 Lok Sabha elections, when National Front – Left Front combine had swept the North and Central Bihar, BJP could withstand the Mandal wave by retaining 5 Lok Sabha seats in the Southern Bihar, which is now Jharkhand.

During the heyday of Congress supremacy, BJP and its earlier avatar Janasangh used to be the main opposition party in this southern belt of the undivided Bihar. Even at the time of creation of this state, BJP had 32 MLAs, who were elected in the Bihar Assembly election 9 months prior to its creation BJP had also helped 5 MLAs of Samata Party of Nitish Kumar and 3 MLAs of JD (U) led by Sharad Yadav to win in the region, where these two parties never had any base. Anyway, with the help of 40 MLAs and a couple of others, BJP formed its government in Jharkhand.

But after that BJP saw its steady and irrevocable decline in the state. In 2005 Assembly election, its own tally went down to 30 and it could help win its alliance partner in only 6 seats. 2009 Assembly election proved to be further worse. It could win only 18 seats and helped its partner to win other two seats.

Now, BJP has got a chance to capture power in Jharkhand on its own, but it prefers to enter into alliance, which is quite contrary from its strategy adopted in Haryana and Maharashtra. In these two states, BJP had Haryana Janhit Congress and Shiva Sena its alliance partners in Lok Sabha election, but it deserted them. On the other hand, BJP won handsomely in Jharkhand without any alliance partner and even then it opted for two alliance partners to contest the Assembly Elections.

Why is it so? The reason is very simple. After the creation of Jharkhand, some more regional parties have come into existence. These parties may not influence Lok Sabha election in a big way, but they make impacts on Assembly elections. That is why BJP fares well in Lok Sabha elections, but fails to repeat it in Assembly elections.

Hounded by this fear BJP chose to go for alliance. But it is unlikely to pay any dividend. The reason is it has compromised its position against caste and dynasty politics. Narendra Modi is, no doubt, the USP of BJP and the USP of Narendra Modi is his virulent attack on caste and dynastic politics. That is one of the reasons for his popularity among the masses. But BJP has entered into an alliance with a party known to prosper on caste politics. AJSU of Sudesh Mahto is a party of people belonging to Kurmi caste. Sudesh Mahto is its leader and in the absence of authentic caste data, there is a belief that Kurmi is the most populous caste of Jharkhand. With this in mind, BJP has left 8 seats for AJSU to contest and in return, it hopes to get the votes of his (Sudesh Mahato’s) caste men in other constituencies. But, those who understand the demography of Jharkhand more closely say that Kurmis are not as numerous as claimed by them. If this is true, BJP is not going to benefit from the company of Sudesh Mahto.

It is difficult to understand why BJP has left one seat for LJP of Ramvilas Paswan. He has no base in Jharkhand and no candidate of his party has ever won from that state. Moreover, he symbolises dynasty politics, hence proves to be a damper for the Modi magic to have impacts on people by raising his pitch and that kind of politics.

On the other hand Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is contesting in all seats. It has given the party to accommodate more social groups, while distributing tickets. JMM has been able to attract some strong leaders of other parties, too, on its side. There was a time, when JMM used to concentrate more on tribal people, but now, it is trying to bring all sections of society along with it. This is naturally going to help JMM in a big way. In Lok Sabha elections, too, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha was able to withstand the Modi wave and it won two seats and came close second in another. It is worth mentioning that JMM fought only limited seats in Jharkhand during the last Lok Sabha elections and it had left major chunks of seats for Congress to contest, where the national party lost heavily.

There is all probability of yet another hung Assembly in Jharkhand. With political instability, the power of big money is likely to play important role in the mineral rich state of India depriving people its long cherished dream to be beneficiaries of its rich soil, stone and jungles. (IPA Service)