So far things have gone the Modi way. In the past few months he has done extremely well in consolidating his position within the BJP and also in the government. He has brought back the primacy of the PMO and established his authority in the cabinet. He has sidelined senior party leaders like L.K. Advani and Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi and established his supremacy in the party. He has shown the allies their place. The question is whether he will be able to retain his hold in the party and in the government. After all his detractors are waiting for him to slip.

Politically, the BJP has formed the governments in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand in 2014. It is waiting to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir. Modi has put his handpicked men as chief ministers in these states. The New Year begins with Delhi elections in February followed by Bihar later. Delhi may be a tiny state but it is important for the BJP, as it was the party’s citadel earlier. The AAP party continues to be a challenge and the Delhi elections will set the trend for 2015.

Bihar is a very important state as it provided a good number of seats for the BJP kitty in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The JD (U) – RJD combine had given a good fight to the BJP in the bye- elections. There is an all out effort on the part of Modi and his party chief Amit Shah to annex Bihar form the JD (U). The erstwhile Janata Parivar is in the process of merging and Bihar elections will be the first test whether it succeeds or not. In 2016, there are bigger challenges as West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala go for polls.

Modi had been talking of Congress Mukth Bharat and has partially succeeded in weakening the Congress. The party has lost badly in all the subsequent Assembly elections since 2014 polls. Unfortunately for Congress it is not in good shape either in Delhi or in Bihar with the result the demoralization in the party would further increase. The year 2015 will show whether the Congress will bounce back or not. The New Year will also be a challenge for Rahul Gandhi’s leadership.

For Arvind Kejriwal who is hoping to do well in Delhi elections despite his failure to govern when he got the mandate last year, the year 2015 is a challenge. If his party does not do reasonably well, it will fold up sooner than later. Already there are lots of murmurs in the party about his authoritarian way of functioning. It is going to be a do or die battle for him.

The left parties have very little stake in the ensuing Assembly polls except in Bihar where the CPI has some pockets of influence.

In the states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Odisha the regional satraps continue to do well politically. Modi has been talking of a federal structure and functioning with the chief ministers as a team. Much more needs to be done in this regard as chief ministers belonging to non-NDA states continue to take party line in meetings. Chief Ministers like Mamata Banerjee continue to be on war- path. The bill on GST is the first success in getting the chief ministers on board. Still there are many other issues, which require gentle handling. For instance, though the Planning Commission has been wound up, it is not clear what kind of new body is going to be in place. After all, Modi might have come out with innovative schemes but it is the states which have to implement them.

While much has been said about maximum governance and minimum government, 2015 will be crucial for implementation of Modi’s policies. He has been able to come up with ideas like Swachh Bharat and Jan Dhan Yojna but his skill lies in ensuring implementation. He should try to implement the bottom up approach fixing accountability on babus and ministers. Reforms are needed in many areas including economic and financial sectors. The BJP’s minority status in Rajya Sabha may pose a problem in getting crucial bills passed although Modi government has taken the ordinance route. The next budget is also set to play a crucial role.

The most important challenge for Modi might come from the fringe elements within the Sangh Parivar. There have been a number of issues on which these elements take a different view ranging from political, economic, cultural, social and even on dress code. While Modi and his government maintain that the agenda is only development, can he or does he want to control these elements? This will be one of the biggest challenges in 2015 for Modi when he will have to decide whether he is willing to risk his political fortunes for something that is more vital for the revival of the economy. (IPA Service)