Interestingly, this election is not fought on manifestoes as the BJP has not even come out with a manifesto Instead it has what is called a vision document with 270 points, promising to make Delhi a world class city, women security, transparency in governance, housing, power and water supply in priority areas. However, the document did not spell out BJP's position on full statehood to Delhi, which it had promised in its manifestos for the 2013 assembly polls and past elections. The AAP’s 42- page manifesto has promised a windfall of freebees without specifying the details. Kejriwal is focusing on the local issues like electricity, water, women’s safety etc and his 49-day government performance. The Congress, which has almost given up hope, has also come out with a populist manifesto. Cynics of course dismiss these, as the promises are not meant to be fulfilled.

The fight is between the BJP and the AAP with the Congress receding to the background. The situation has changed from the 2013 polls when the Congress was the ruling party and now Delhi is under the Central rule, which means the BJP rule by proxy. This gives an indication that when a third player emerges as a viable alternative people might prefer to vote for the new entrant.

So what has happened in the past two months that the BJP is losing? While Modi represents the right wing Kejriwal is left of the left. Therefore there is a convergence of interests, which are opposed to the BJP. Parties like the JD (U) are openly supporting the AAP while the Congress does so covertly. After all Kejriwal has not committed a big crime by resigning his post and voters might think why not give him another chance? All said and done people like to support the underdog.

Secondly, two years ago no one had thought that Kejriwal could succeed in launching a political party and capture. Modi has acquired his larger than life image only after he became the BJP prime ministerial candidate. Both have their appeal to the aspirational class and the youth are attracted to them. So the voters might think that they had made Modi the PM and now it is the turn of Kejriwal to become the CM.

Thirdly, the fight is between a cadre-based party and a volunteer-driven party. Kejriwal has been successful in keeping his outfit more or less intact and continue to attract volunteers to campaign for him. Being a good communicator, he has been able to make use of the digital media and also by his door to door campaign as well his connectivity with the people. He has visited the entire Delhi for the past one year many times preparing for the polls. The BJP was perhaps too smug and thought that the name of Modi would bring them power. The BJP would have won had the elections been held soon after the 2014 polls. Moreover, imposing Bedi an outsider has not gone down well with the local leaders and Bedi is not able to connect to the voters or the BJP workers. If the BJP loses it could be only because of internal sabotage.

Fourthly, the AAP seems to have forged a major support base among the Muslims, SC/ST/OBC and lower income group voters, which earlier voted for the Congress or the BJP. While the Muslims in Delhi are backing the AAP, the support of the lower middle class and the voters from slum areas has been completely won by the party. This broadening of the voter base might help the AAP. At the same time, AAP has lost the support of the middle class, which now is set to vote in favor of the BJP. Modi is also trying to woo the poorer sections by promising them a house by 2022. The success remains in getting the voters to the polling booth. If more voters come to vote, the AAP will benefit.

With parties not sparing any effort to woo the voter, the last few days the poll fight has become ugly. For the first time Delhi is watching a no holds barred electoral fight between two excellent communicators. Ultimately the Delhi elections will show which way the wind blows – whether the Modi magic continues or the muffler man Kerjwial will become the chief minister. The fight is too close. (IPA Service)