Obviously what made these people so concerned of the political discourse and its fall out in Bihar? After his re-election as the leader of the JD(U) legislature party Nitish said; “Manjhi was pursuing ultra dalit politics and was not following the philosophy of good governance,” the fact of the matter was he was not speaking his heart. He was simply echoing the words of other leaders. Nitish said, “need to remove him (Manjhi) came when people were coming and complaining about his controversial statements every day. People of the state appeared to have lost faith in him. I was not keen to take over as CM but I am accepting the proposal for the party. After all, a bad atmosphere was being created. Good governance was being compromised for social engineering”.

Nitish’s sudden realization has been quite intriguing. If the situation had really turned precarious and was eroding the social base of the party then in that case why Nitish preferred to maintain a passive silence, as was rightly posed by Manjhi while addressing party workers. Manjhi said, “Nitish has become Bhishmapitamah. His silence would witness eruption of Mahabharat”. Interestingly during last eight months, Nitish never questioned Manjhi or even shown him the red flag. As Nitish himself confessed, “during these months I focused on reinvigorating and reviving the party and had left the issue of running of the government to Manjhi”. Obviously it implied that Manjhi did not deviate from the brief given to him. If even for once he had deviated them in all fairness, Nitish ought to have pulled him up. Nitish says good governance has been his USP. Obviously how could a person be a passive spectator to trampling of his USP?

Obviously there is something at stake than meets the eyes. At a time when Nitish was going strong with his mission to consolidate his mahadalit support base, the decision to replace Manjhi and reinstate him as the chief minister would undoubtedly dent his image of a selfless leader committed to the cause of Bihar and its poor and mahadalits. It is more intriguing for the reason that a person like Nitish who is regarded as the modern Chanakya has to eschew and swallow his own renunciation of power. This has provided the right opportunity to his detractors, his own party rebels and even the BJP, to label him as a typical political opportunist, hungry for power.

Till February 2 Nitish did not mention about the public complaint against Manjhi and about his ultra dalit politics. Of course a section of the upper caste leaders returned hostile and they in fact started publically questioning some his remarks and observations. After he convened the meeting of the dalit bureaucrats, a major chunk of upper caste IAS and IPS officers took objection to this move. Burt even at that stage Nitish did not caution him.

Strange enough it took mere three days to completely change the power complexion and character of the politics. Even on February 2 Nitish had told his party colleagues and senior leaders that all was fine and had in fact endorsed the functioning of the chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi. But the scenario took a turn for worse after February 4. For some Manjhi-Nitish break-up might not come as a surprise as the relationship was based on compulsions not choice But the fact also cannot be ignored that in the changing political situation, when the BJP was working on a new social engineering and has succeeded in enticing the upper castes, particularly the Bhumihar and Brahmins and to a certain extent a section of the OBC, Nitish had no alternative but to build his own new model of social engineering of OBC, Dalits and Mahadalits. In fact Manjhi has been performing the task in an accomplished manner. Obviously in this backdrop, his removal would undoubtedly jeopardize the future plan of Nitish.

At least two factors made Nitish to redraw his mahadalit strategy. First, Mulayam and Lalu are reluctant to repose their trust in Manjhi. They apprehend that Manjhi would not be able to handle the situation post unification. This perception got strength from the whimsical functioning and some unwanted utterances and remarks by Manjhi. He has been the chief minister but he has been only arousing the sentiments of the mahadalits against the upper castes. Both these leaders feel that Majhi’s stand would completely alienate the upper castes. Second, upper castes social and political leaders have been trying to create an impression that Majhi has been pushing the state to the brink of caste war, reminiscent of the early seventies. Interestingly the state BJP has been giving much credence to it. Paradoxically at the same time they have been eulogising Manjhi as the new messiah of the mahadalits. Incidentally ever since the Lok Sabha elections there has been a rise in the number of atrocities and attacks against the dalits in Bihar.

Besides what made Nitish to act is the increasing closeness between Manjhi and national BJP leadership. It is a known fact in the political circle that since 1991, Manjhi had been friendly towards the BJP. It was during the 1991 by-elections in which most of the BJP supporters voted for Manjhi, then a Congress candidate with the result that BJP candidate Nagia Devi, wife of three time MP Ishwar Chaudhary, lost her security deposits. BJP has not been a pariah for Manjhi. In 1991 the BJP leaders justified the tacit support to Congress candidate Jitan Ram Manjhi, as their main object was to defeat Rajesh Kumar, the Lalu nominee. Manjhi had also 'donated' his elder son to the Sangh Parivar and the arrangement went fine during the BJP-JD (U) coalition era. Even as late as 2014 parliamentary elections, Manjhi, acknowledged his son's BJP membership and attributed it to internal democracy in the Manjhi family.

The situation might not have deteriorated to such an extent if Manjhi had restrained in his action and words. While negotiating with Nitish in the morning, on the day Nitish was entrusted to lead the party again, Manjhi simply echoed the BJP leader’s line to recommend dissolution of the assembly. Nitish, who, at one stage, was willing to reconcile and give one more chance to Manjhi, even against the wishes of his party Chief Sharad Yadav, became skeptical of his intentions. Later he said; “This is not the way the cabinet system works. If there is dissent, a decision is reconsidered. I had been hearing about the evil designs of someone in the face of threat to his chair, I saw a glimpse of that today. How can Manjhi challenge the authority of our national president Sharad Yadav to call a party meeting?”

Nevertheless one thing is explicit that the eight month old exercise of Nitish to build a support base amongst the Mahadalits has been wasted. The bitter animosity that has crept in their relations and the manner in which their supporters have fought pitched battles on the streets of Patna, will eventually erode the credibility of Nitish. Willing or unwillingly Nitish has played into the hands of the forces which have been inimical to him. Given the fact that Manjhi has assiduously nursed his dalit and Mahadalit support base as the CM, the BJP and even the RJD, will try to take advantage of his vote base. Agriculture minister Narendra Singh's statement that the Manjhi camp would not be averse to taking BJP support and flying to Delhi smacks of the possible new relationship. With a population of 22 per cent in the state of Bihar, Dalits and Mahadalits will eventually tilt the scale in any political party's favour in the election. By pushing the case of Manjhi, BJP will strive to win over the trust of this vote bank. (IPA Service)