But Nitish Kumar is neither an MLA not a Minister; hence he cannot take part in the proceedings of the House, when it assembles. He can attend the joint session of the legislators, but not of the lower house. That is why; it was illogical for the Speaker to declare Nitish as the leader of the House. The House has been summoned by the Chief Minister Jeetan Ram Manjhi and so long he is the CM, he will continue to be the leader of the lower House.

The question of Nitish Kumar getting or not getting nod of High Court as the leader of the combined legislators of JD(U) is another matter. High Court has yet to give final decision over it, but it has rightly stayed the order of Speaker declaring Nitish Kumar as the leader of House, where Nitish does not qualify there to sit as of now.

Whatever may be the reason for the present political crisis of Bihar, but its solution can be found only by a vote in Assembly. There is no denying the fact that Jeetan Ram Manjhi has been removed from his post of the leader of legislative party of his JD (U), but it is also a fact that he has declined to resign from the post of Chief Minister. In such a situation he can be removed only by a negative vote against him in the Assembly. It is known to everybody. Despite it, Nitish Kumar paraded his supporters MLAs before the Governor and the President. In fact, this was the politics of Nitish Kumar to put pressure on the Governor to prepone the Assembly Session scheduled on February 20. It is noteworthy that on January 20 itself, the notification of Budget session was made, according to which the session was to commence on February 20. Governor ultimately decided to ask Manjhi to test the floor on that date itself and he did not oblige Nitish by commencing a special session of Assembly. Now he finds himself in a catch 22 situation, where there is a fear of change of sides by not only JD (U) MLAs, but also the MLAs belonging to RJD.

Now the question arises, “Was it a badly timed move of Nitish, where the MLAs have got enough time to decide their future course of action?’’ Had Nitish postponed his action for installation of himself as the leader of JD (U) legislators’ party by 10 days, he would not have been facing the situation. Why did he err? The only explanation is that he underestimated the guts of Jeetan Ram Manjhi. He thought that Mr Manjhi could be pressurised to resign after getting offer of a Ministerial birth for his son. Nitish wanted the task of donning the Chief Minister ship between February 7 and 10, when BJP was supposed to be preoccupied in Delhi Assembly elections. But Manjhi foiled the efforts of Nitish and his supporters.

Now, the crisis has to be solved by the Assembly after the address of Governor to the combined house. With the support of 130 MLAs, Nitish Kumar should have been confidant of voting out Manjhi, but he is not showing the expected confidence. On the other hand, Manjhi is showing a lot of confidence, even while saying that his days in office may be numbered. This situation has arisen, because Manjhi has reached in a position, where he has nothing to lose. He is satisfied, as he himself declared, by hoisting the national flag at Gandhi Maidan at Patna twice. He is mentally prepared to lose his Chief Ministerial post with grace.

On the other hand, it is a ‘Now or Never” battle for Nitish Kumar. He is well aware that this is the last chance for him to remain relevant in Bihar politics. If he loses his battle for Chief Ministership, he has no political future in the caste ridden politics of Bihar, where his caste men only comprise two percent of the total population. His effort to create a social support base by dividing Scheduled Caste between Dalits and Mahadalits and OBCs into OBCs and MBCs has lost direction by his opposition to Narendra Modi, an OBC and Jeetan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit. He is afraid of even Lalu Yadav, who is helping him at the moment only to make his son Deputy CM and his wife a Member of Rajya Sabha. Once, Lalu fails to fulfil his own political interest with the help of Nitish, he may desert him (Nitish), because there is hardly any relation of love and respect between the two.

All eyes are set on the moves of BJP, who has ability to decide the fate of the present crisis. The state BJP leaders are talking of supporting Manjhi, while official line of Central Leaders of Delhi is to wait and watch. Manjhi himself is not much sure of the support of BJP, but it is not supposed to be inactive or neutral, when the politics of Bihar is boiling. (IPA Service)