The first indication of the BJP’s changing equations with its allies has come from Maharashtra. Reacting to Delhi poll’s outcome, Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray sarcastically commented “Delhi Tsunami is bigger than Modi wave’. Shiv Sena has been a long time ally of the BJP. But bargaining during the ministry formation talks after the BJP failed to get an absolute majority caused strains in their relations.

Thackeray’s latest remarks about the ‘Modi wave” and BJP’s dependence on Shiv Sena for retaining power in Maharashtra will strengthen the Sena’s bargaining power vis-a-vis its dominant ruling ally. This may cause tensions between the ruling allies. But their political compulsions may prevent them from parting ways at least in the near future. Power acts as adhesive between estranged allies.

The complex relationship between the saffron party and its second major ally Akali Dal has been undergoing changes depending on their performance in successive elections.

In 2007 assembly elections, Parkash Singh Badal-led Akali Dal failed to get majority and formed government with the support of its ally BJP whose highest ever tally of 16 MLAs gave the saffron party a decisive say in government’s functioning.

In the 2012 elections, the Akali Dal-BJP alliance unexpectedly won the majority and formed the government. The BJP’s reduced tally, however, affected its bargaining power vis-à-vis its senior ally. But after coming into power of Modi-led government in 2014, the BJP again started asserting itself. Some prominent BJP leaders even criticized authoritarian style of Deputy Chief Minister and Akali Dal president Sukhbir Badal’s functioning alleging that being Home Minister he had converted police into his party’s political wing.

The allies alternating domineering role in governing the state has been causing strains in their relations with some BJP leaders pressing the party for parting of ways with the Akali Dal.

The Modi-led government’s hitherto failure to help the virtually bankrupt Punjab has dismayed the ruling Akali leaders. In their election campaign for Arun Jaitley who contested Lok Sabha election from Amritsar, the Akali leaders had claimed that Jaitley would send “truck loads of currency notes to Punjab after winning the seat (which he failed to bag) and becomes Finance Minister”. But the Modi government has been pressing the state government to maintain financial discipline which is further aggravating the acute financial crisis the state government is facing.

The BJP’s debacle in the Delhi Assembly elections is bound to again give an upper hand to the Akali leadership in Punjab‘s governance. Notwithstanding the tensions generated by their conflicting interests the ruling allies are not likely to part ways during the “lifetime of Parkash Singh Badal”. Even after AAP’s sweeping victory in Delhi elections he has claimed that “Modi’s image has not taken any beating in Delhi assembly’s elections”.

Change is the law of nature, it is inevitable.

The signs of the end of the Modi government’s honeymoon period had started emerging within three months of its coming into power. Some national Dailies have now declared that the Delhi Assembly elections demonstrate the end of the Modi government’s honeymoon period.

Ordinarily, elections in India would seldom draw international media’s attention. But the outcome of Delhi elections has drawn adverse comments against Modi and BJP from several international newspapers. The New York Times in an editorial says: “Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been brought down to earth by domestic politics. He and his Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., were crushed in the election Tuesday for New Delhi’s 70-member state assembly, winning three seats while the upstart Aam Aadmi Party, or AAP, captured the rest…………Since sweeping to power last year with the biggest national victory in three decades, Mr. Modi and the BJP have generated an aura of invincibility, winning a succession of other state elections………..So far there has been little concrete return and as the Delhi election suggested, people are growing frustrated”.

Pursuing politics of personality Modi preferred to visit foreign countries to build his international image than initiating steps for implementing his promised reforms and development agenda. He also invited US president Barack Obama to India. But some of his actions during his US visit and Obama’s visit to India have lowered his and India’s image.

What must have shocked Modi and the BJP was his “friend” Obama cautioning India, before he left host country, against forces trying to use religion for splintering India. Addressing a town hall meeting Obama said “India will succeed so long as it is not splintered along lines of religious faith, and is unified as one nation……. Our countries freedom of religion is written into our founding documents……Our diversity is our strength and we have to guard against any efforts to divide ourselves along sectarian lines or any other lines”.

Though RSS, Modi’s ideological mentor, must have been angered by Obama’s advice, the prime minister, as usual, maintained silence.

Some of Modi’s utterances during his Delhi election meetings have also not only dented his image but have also brought down the stature of the country’s highest office he holds. He made unbecoming remarks against the AAP chief Arvind Kejrival describing him as a Naxal and called those predicting an AAP victory “bazaaru”. In contrast, Kejriwal used dignified language against his opponents. Using the time-tested formula of “admit faults quickly and smile more often”, Kejriwal won the hearts of Delhi electorate and made it to the victory stand with record creating win of 67 of the Delhi Assembly’s 70 seats.

Not caring for the time-tested maxim that humility begets love and respect while arrogance breeds hatred and repulsion the BJP leadership had to bite the dust in the national Capital which Modi during his election speeches had described as representing India. Outcome of the Delhi poll is a warning signal for the saffron party and Modi. (IPA Service)