The TMC threw all its resources into an all out campaign. It was fighting not only the BJP, the Left Front (LF) and the Congress, but also simmering dissidence within itself and the damage caused by the Saradha scam. More than the eventual positive outcome, the impressive margin of the TMC's win was an added sweetener for the beleaguered party leadership.

No wonder a galvanised Mamata Banerjee turned somewhat unrestrained in her comments to the press, not for the first time.' These results show that people still love and support us all the way. We do not care which party came at number two or three in these elections. The TMC remains the strongest party in Bengal — no, in India — no, in the world!!'

Obediently on cue, Mr. Partha Chatterjee, the well built Minister of Education and party Secretary, told newsmen that Bengal had total faith in Ms Banerjee and her TMC. They had decisively rejected the other parties and dismissed as baseless all the 'anti TMC media campaign'.

For once, the hyperbole seemed justified. At Bongaon (parliamentary) TMC candidate Ms Mamatabala Thakur (5,39,990 votes) romped home with a 2,12,000 margin over her nearest rival, former State Minister Debes Das of the CPI(M), who won 328196 votes. BJP's Subrata Thakur, near relative of Ms Thakur came in third with 314119 votes while the Congress candidate won a dismal 29,149 votes.

At Krishnaganj (assembly), TMC's Satyajit Biswas won 95469 votes beating nearest rival Manabendra Ray of the BJP(58436 votes) and Apurba Biswas of the CPI(M) with 37620 votes. The Congress won only 4817 votes. The party lost its security deposit in both seats. The winning margin close to 37,000 votes.

However, there was still some cause for concern for the ruling party as the BJP made major gains. The Congress and Left share of votes continued to decline. The BJP put up an impressive performance at Krishnaganj, coming in second upstaging the LF. At Bongaon, the BJP trailed the first runner up LF by only around 14,000 votes.

While the TMC retained both seats. An analysis of the figures in percentage terms showed that the party had retained its vote share at Krishnaganj but suffered a marginal 2 per cent decline at Bongaon, from the time of the LS polls in 2014. In the same period. Left votes declined from around 29 per cent in 2014 to over 18 per cent at Krishnaganj and 26 per cent at Bongaon. Congress votes declined to an all time low of just over 2 per cent at Krishnaganj, from around 9/10 per cent in 2014 polls.

In fact win or no win, the BJP was the only party in these by- elections to register a major increase in terms of votes won both in absolute numbers and percentage terms, a fact the TMC leadership chose to underplay deliberately. The BJP's share was close to 30 per cent in Krishnaganj and it topped 25 per cent at Bongaon, considerably higher than the 16.8 per cent it won in the 2014 LS polls--- a rise of around 14 per cent and 9 per cent in around eight months!

This proved commentators who had predicted that the political battle for the state post 2014 LS polls would be fought between the TMC and the resurgent BJP, correct. The Congress was marginalised in South Bengal for all practical purposes, except in Malda and Murshidabad. As for the LF, it was yet to find a way to check its political decline.

The TMC's victory was easy to foresee at Bongaon, a border area. Here over the years there had occurred much illegal immigration from Bangladesh leading to a population explosion, high level of smuggling and criminal activities and a rise in the Muslim population. The Congress, the LF and the TMC all helped the illegal settlers to stay, to create their vote banks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's warning to push out such people from India once the BJP came to power, which was endorsed by the state BJP, did not go down well at all with the majority of enrolled votes in the constituency.

On the other hand the outcome at Krishnaganj, which is nearer to urban greater Kolkata, was more significant and indicative of the new trend of voting in the state which favoured the saffron party. Here, the number of dubious voters and illegal settlers is far less.

With civic polls scheduled in the state on April 18 and 25, the verdict at Krishnaganj, coupled with the rapid rise in the BJP's vote share should add to the TMC's concerns. The ruling party has lost much ground politically in urban and semi urban areas. The BJP has been the chief gainer, cutting into the vote banks of the LF and the Congress, as well as that of the TMC. No wonder BJP leader Siddharthnath Singh and Rahul Sinha strongly defended the party's showing in the by-polls.

The voting trends seem to confirm what the TMC finds most worrying about the BJP's rise: the party lacks an organisational base in Bengal, and does not yet have a charismatic leader to challenge Ms Banerjee. Still, people are supporting it in increasingly large numbers. If this trend continues till 2016 when the next state assembly elections will fall due, the TMC will have to find a way of reversing the anti incumbency swing only in the fourth year of its scheduled tenure. (IPA Service)