Two factors justify the ruling allies elation over their poll victory. One is their impressive win despite their widening rift in the recent past and the intra-party and inter-party rivalries and clashes with their rebel candidates which, however, failed to cause any severe damage to the official nominees prospects except at a few places. The second factor is the humiliating drubbing of the Congress in the council and panchayat polls, though to a relatively lesser extent in the Corporations elections.

The ruling combine’s optimists who treat the outcome of the civic polls as a “semifinal” of the 2017 assembly elections are grossly mistaken. In a democracy it is a sign of political immaturity to treat the outcome of local body elections as a barometer for predicting outcome of assemblies and Lok Sabha elections. Local bodies elections are fought on local issues with personal contacts and group rivalries playing a key role while broader political and ideological issues generally decide the fate of in Lok Sabha and assemblies polls. Unless there is a wave in favour of a contesting party or a leader, outcome of Lok Sabha polls is usually at variance with the outcome of state assembly polls and vice versa.

For instance, in 2007 there was a widespread belief that the anti-incumbency against the then Parkash Singh Badal-led Akali-BJP government would ensure the Congress victory. But it did not. The major reason was the Congress leadership’s complacency which slackened the party’s campaign drive. In Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party drew a blank in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls but captured power in the 2015 Assembly elections with a record setting win of 67 seats out of the assembly’s 70 seats.

What will happen in 2017 will largely depend on three factors: (1) State of the Congress health which is virtually in a terminal state. Factionalism, infighting and leadership crisis triggered by its humiliating defeat in Lok Sabha and assembly elections have not only caused widespread demoralization in the party but have also created leadership crisis. Although presently it is difficult to predict, yet if the Congress is able to come out of its debilitating state by 2017 and provide an effective leadership and strong organizational setup, Punjab’s political situation may radically change. (2) State of the Akali Dal-BJP relationship. (3) The validity of the Modi factor which led to the BJP victory in the Lok Sabha and subsequently held assembly elections but has been on the wane. Will it be able to regain its lost vigor?

Like the game of snakes and ladders, political fortunes of the players keep fluctuating. The Akali leadership was jubilantly hoping to scale the governance ladder when the Modi-led government assumed office. Foreseeing his ascendency to power and hoping that it would bail the Punjab government out of its worst ever financial crisis and other problems, it had started heaping praises on Modi. During his visit to Gandhinagar in September 2013, Parkash Singh Badal even described him as the country’s ‘greatest leader’ and a ‘sardar’.

The Modi-led NDA government has, however, belied the optimistic wishes of the Akali leadership. The Centre has so far failed to bail the Badal government out of its severe financial crises and help it solve its governance problems. The Modi government has refused to release more funds under the centrally-sponsored schemes unless the state government justified the utility of the funds already given for specified schemes. The Badal government would find it difficult to positively respond to the Centre’s demand as it has been diverting many central schemes funds for non-specified purposes. Badal has now demanded that the funds meant for the states under the centrally sponsored schemes are transferred directly to states as untied funds.

Unmindful of their harmful consequences for the state, ruling parties follow unviable populist policies to retain power. Its biggest example is the Akali leadership’s determination to continue supplying free power to the farm sector costing the exchequer over Rs.6000 crore annually despite the widespread multi-level opposition and criticism even by a high court judge. In a recent case, the judge told the Punjab government “Your free electricity is being used by rich people in their farmhouses fitted with air conditioner and refrigerators”.

Punjab’s acute financial crunch is equally matched by poor governance. Sections of government employees are not paid their salaries and pensions on time. Government-aided institutions including the universities facing acute financial crunch are not released funds for months together. Education and health infrastructure is in a dilapidated state. The government dispensaries are short of staff. Except those located in influential ruling leaders constituencies, most dispensaries are starved of medicines needed for the poor patients.

Forget such shortcomings which affect the common man. Implementation of the ruling leadership’s much trumpeted development agenda also shows no sign of momentum. An investigative report in a popular English Daily has highlighted the sharp decline of industrial growth and a massive flight of industry from the state. Punjab’s biggest steel town Mandi Gobindgarh has almost closed down with only a handful of steel rolling mills and furnaces partially functioning. Spinning units in the famed textile Ludhiana are fast shifting to other states, particularly Madhya Pradesh. Jalandhar, the country’s main sports goods manufacturing industry centre is losing business to its counterparts in Meerut.

Such events of immediate relevance are overshadowing the issues of potentially wider ramifications. In the process they have caused widespread discontentment among the people. Punjab’s ruling leadership which perhaps believes that “discontent is the first necessity of progress” needs to introspect and take corrective steps for restoring normalcy to Punjab’s financial, industrial, agricultural and governance health. (IPA Service)