Mufti’s statement, evidently, evoked adverse reaction in Delhi and the BJP-led government was embarrassed. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Rajnath Singh had to disassociate the central government from the ill-timed statement. Iii-advised as it doubtless was, it should not be allowed to queer the pitch for India’s continued dialogue with Pakistan on Kashmir and terrorism and other bilateral issues. The Hurriyat and Pakistan would have to be on board for India’s efforts to find a solution to the Kashmir dispute to succeed. J&K should not be allowed to become hostage to politicking whether by the PDP in Kashmir or by the Congress and the BJP at the national level.

Soon after taking over as Chief Minister, Mufti announced a series of welcome measures, asking the police to initiate process of releasing those political prisoners in the state against whom no criminal charges are registered. He directed the DGP to prepare a comprehensive plan for the rehabilitation of surrendered and released militants “so that they are integrated into the mainstream of the society.” He said these youth should be given a chance to settle down and lead a normal life as other citizens of the state and contribute to the society. These steps will motivate other separatist youth to give up path of violence and lead normal life, like their colleagues, who have surrendered and got rehabilitated.

Kashmir remains deeply disaffected with India owing to past excesses, periodic shooting of civilians, the ubiquitous presence of armed forces in the valley and strong convictions about its unresolved political status. For Mufti to recover lost ground and achieve more strategic purposes, some conditions need to be fulfilled. First, dialogue with Pakistan must continue and proceed further. The alliance document makes the link between normalized Indo-Pak ties and progress in Pakistan and progress in Kashmir. It sees the coalition’s purpose as catalyzing reconciliation and confidence-building across the Line of Control. This makes sense; Pakistan is a factor in J&K politics, one may like it or not; engaging Pakistan generates incentives for Islamabad to put a lid on militants activities and ensure felicitation of a peaceful solution to the Kashmir problem.

Second, Mufti must be allowed to bring about real change on the ground. His previous stint saw changes in the daily experience of living in Kashmir as he persuaded the security forces to scale back aggressive search and frisk operations. He faced criticism too for integrating the reviled counter insurgency Special Operation Group into the J&K Police rather than genuinely disbanding it. This time ensuring the return of civilian land taken over by security forces—which is clearly written into the alliance document — will be an important issue. Third, Mufti’s success will depend on the Centre reigning in BJP hardliners from Jammu who may seek symbolic reaffirmations of their power. The BJP’s aggressive cultural agenda nationally is unlikely to help either. Lastly, J&K’s governance agenda and the Valley’s reconstruction after last year’s floods, must yield results quickly.

Amid the complex interplay of interests there are a number of issues that can go wrong, which is why many expect Mufti to fail. But if his tenure runs the full course, Mufti can end up shaping the future of both Kashmiri nationalism and Hindu nationalism. Pro-azadi intellectuals despise him for being an “Indian by conviction”. Yet by insulating Kashmir from Delhi’s anxieties with his connection with soft separatist rhetoric, he maintains space for nationalist narratives while also undermining their sovereign ambitions when pushing for independent ties across the Loc. As a veteran in J&K politics and also having national stature, he may even moderate Modi’s instincts towards Kashmir. And because Prime Minister ties his own success to engagement with Pakistan, undermining Mufti will incur the risks of unraveling Modi’s Pakistan plans as well. The BJP must reckon with the full measure of what it has invested in. (IPA Service)