The immediate task is election of the new Speaker. The task is easier said than done given the delicate nature of balance of forces and social equations in the UDF and the State Cabinet.

Karthikeyan in the Speaker’s seat was a big relief for Oommen Chandy as the wealth of experience he brought to bear on the ticklish job had helped the CM to weather many a storm inside the Assembly.

It is extremely difficult to zero in on his successor, who will be called upon to face a tough challenge in the ongoing Budget session of the Assembly. The week ahead is likely to be an acid test for the new Speaker as the ruling UDF and the Opposition LDF are squaring up for a confrontation on the issue of Budget presentation by Finance Minister K. M. Mani, who is in the eye of the bar bribery scam. If the UDF is bent upon on ensuring that Mani presents the Budget, the LDF is equally determined to prevent him from doing so. Unless the right person is in the Speaker’s seat, things could get tough for the ruling UDF, and the Chief Minister is acutely aware of the ticklish task ahead. Hence his cautious approach to the issue.

Oommen Chandy has two-three options before him. The first one is to promote the Deputy Speaker, N. Sakthan Nadar – a Congress MLA - to the Speaker’s post. If he accomplishes the task, he will be pleasing the powerful Nadar community to which Sakthan belongs. The I group led by Home Minister, Ramesh Chennithala will also be happy. The move will also mollify the Nadar community, which was left unrepresented in the Cabinet formation last time.

But the question is: Will Chandy allow this to happen? Chandy is keen to have his own trusted man as the new Speaker. Though Sakthan is a Congress MLA, he does not seem to enjoy the complete trust of the CM.

A few names are in circulation for the key post. Among the front-runners is Sports Minister Thiruvanchoor Radhakarishnan. But the problem is Radhakrishnan no longer enjoys the close equation he once had with Chandy. Chandy’s own preference seems to be for his closest aide in the State Cabinet, K. C. Joseph with whom he has an excellent equation.

The other challenge for the Congress and Chandy is to find a suitable candidate for the by-election from Aruvikkara constituency which will be held following the vacancy caused by Karthikeyan’s death.

True, in the 2011 assembly election, Karthikeyan romped home the winner from Aruvikkara. But there has been a sea-change in the political situation since then. The popularity of the Congress-led UDF and the government headed by it has plummeted in the wake of eruption of a slew of scams including the solar scam and the ongoing bar bribery scam.

Also, the CPI(M) is a force to reckon with in the Aruvikkara assembly seat as the party enjoys a strong presence in several panchayats in the constituency.

True, there is no immediate danger to the stability of the UDF Government. But defeat of the UDF candidate in the Aruvikkara by-election will give a big psychological boost to the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front, and could have a crucial bearing on both the local bodies polls in September this year and the more important assembly election battle due in May next

It also remains to be seen whether the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), a constituent of the UDF, will stake its claim for the Aruvikkara seat. It may be mentioned that RSP has always contested from Aryanad constituency, which was later transformed into Aruvikkara following delimitation when it was part of the LDF. Since the RSP has sizable influence in the Aruvikkara seat, indications are that the party could stake its claim for the seat. (IPA Service)