The rise of Aam Admi Party (AAP) in 2013 in Delhi as a people’s movement against corruption and big business exploitation, following its near majority status in its first ever election contest in the state in 2013 and, thereafter, gaining overwhelming majority in Delhi re-election in 2015, is unlikely to make a national impact for want of presence of strong clean national heroes from other parts of the country in its executive council. The Kejriwal group’s successful bid to suppress internal dissent by some of its founder-members, including top lawyer Prashant Bhushan and socialist Yogendra Yadav, makes the party look more like a local outfit than a national one. The Arvind Kejriwal manoeuvre ensured the exit of two AAP strong men from the party’s all-important political affairs committee (PAC). Thus, AAP became a single leader centric party like other strong regional parties.

As of now, AAP does not seem to have any national policy or goal. Its fight against private power suppliers such as Anil Ambanis and Tatas and water suppliers, the state-controlled Jal Board, are at best symbolic. The AAP government has slashed the rates at public expense through subsidies. On the contrary, Odisha Chief Minister Navin Patnaik did a better job by summarily revoking the licence given to the Ambanis for power distribution and giving it back to a state agency. Kejriwal is projecting himself more like a regional leader like the ones ruling states such as Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar or even in coalition-governed Maharashtra (Shiv Sena), Punjab (Akali Dal) and J&K (People’s Democratic Party). AAP, in its present form and political dispensation, is most unlikely to be different.

BJP’s latest Delhi poll results provide little hope for the party to retain its current national presence in future. Worse still, the growing regionalism may have a stronger control of Rajya Sabha making Lok Sabha dominance by a party or a group meaningless for administration or future economic reforms. The strong BJP presence at Lok Sabha with 281 seats out of 543 is unable to pass reform bills due to resistance by powerful regional parties that control Rajya Sabha. While Rajya Sabha is under the control of regional parties, the latter without any alliance occupy as many as 146 seats in Lok Sabha. Rajya Sabha, well under regional parties, makes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of ‘cooperative federalism’ rather ominous due to non-cooperation by representatives from a good number of states.

A strong and rising personality cult in state political parties seems to be behind the growth of regionalism and fall of national parties. If the Gandhi family cult is a single ruinous reason for the massive decline of the 130-year-old nationalist Congress party, theoretician Prakash Karat’s vice like grip over CPI (M) even before he became the all-powerful party general secretary 15 years ago saw the decline of CPM in national politics. Karat’s policies have also indirectly affected the fortune of the original communist party, CPI, that played a second fiddle to CPM in electoral policy after the Communist split over five decades ago, as also of other smaller left parties in the country. The decline of Congress and the two left parties and the emergence of AAP as a Kejriwal-centric regional party could pose a new challenge to the only other nationalist party, BJP, which is, till now, destined to rule under severe regional party pressure despite its overwhelming majority in Lok Sabha. Under the Constitution, a party’s Lok Sabha majority alone does not allow it to govern. The ruling national party’s governance agenda, which necessitates making laws, is bound to remain undone without the support of Rajya Sabha.

The nature and results of future state elections, beginning next year, hold the key to the survival and progress of the current centre-led system in wide range of areas of administration, including economic, social, diplomatic and internal and external defence. Stronger regional parties are bound to weaken the position of the national government as per their own local requirements and choices. For instance, the government of West Bengal can stall a diplomatic deal with Bangladesh or Bhutan. Similarly, the Tamil Nadu government can put a spanner on a Sri Lanka-India pact. J&K and Punjab can make diplomatic agreement with Pakistan difficult to execute. Internally, states, better empowered by the financial commission, can stall any central project since land mostly belongs to the states. Politically, India is once again back in the crossroads. The country’s future is clearly in the hands of regional parties and their strong egoistic satraps. Local leader-centric political parties that offer little room for internal dissension, displeasure or debate can’t be national parties in a country like India where regional diversities hold key to national unity. (IPA Service)