Since the new Sirisena government has taken over in Colombo, the Indo-Lankan ties are on the upswing. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe’s categorical statement that Sri Lanka will implement the 13th Amendment “within a unitary state” and Foreign minister Samaraweera’s assertion that Sri Lanka would adopt a “new approach” at the UN Human Rights Council and offer a “domestic mechanism” for looking into human rights have raised hopes.

Significantly, Modi’s visit, the first after two decades, comes within a month of new Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena's India trip that saw the two countries sign a civil nuclear pact. A solution for the decades old Tamils issue, ending the plight of the Tamil Nadu fishermen, is one among several fresh expectations. India has undertaken infrastructure development projects, including building of 50,000 houses in the Jaffna area, which will be handed over to the beneficiaries during the visit. On the table is the offer of a credit line to Sri Lanka for infrastructure and development projects and expanded support for military training with a view to contain the growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean Region. The real purpose of the visit is on the security side and Modi would talk to the Sri Lankan government about India’s concerns on the Indian Ocean.

New Delhi has to ensure that Colombo implements the 13th amendment plus which alone could provide devolution to the north and east provinces, as enshrined in the amendment of 1987. It is hoped that Modi’s visit to Jaffna would provide new impetus for reconciliation by winning the confidence of Tamils on both sides of the Palk Straits. It would be a boost for Tamils, Tamil-Sinhala reconciliation and India-Sri Lanka relationship. How Modi and Sirisena seek to resolve the Tamil issue, what framework they agree upon and their plan for the repatriation of Tamil refugees in India would decide the direction and depth of bilateral ties ahead. Interestingly, New Delhi’s foreign and security establishment and Tamil Nadu politics determined Indian policy towards Sri Lanka. But post 2014 elections, Tamil Nadu’s influence in Delhi is waning and Modi is perhaps listening more to the South Block advocating a more strategic and nationalist approach for greater regional cooperation, connectivity and economic integration. Before embarking on the Sri Lanka trip Modi has not had any direct consultations with the AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa or her proxy chief minister O Panneerselvam although back channel consultations might have taken place.

The Sirisena government has already shown its keenness to address the Tamil issue. Soon after he took over the president removed the ex-military governor of the Northern Province bowing to demand of Northern province chief minister Wigneswaran. He had also changed the chief secretary against whom Wigneswaran complained. Sirisena has pledged to free hundreds of minority Tamil detainees and return much of the Tamil land in the north and east that the military seized. The other demands like military withdrawal and transfer of land and police powers to the provincial administration are yet to be addressed.

Tamil ethnic conflict is not the sole issue between India and Sri Lanka. There are other irritants, which the Tamil Nadu politicians raise from time to time. Katchateevu is yet another live issue for Tamil Nadu. Originally Raja of Ramnad had leased it. He was a Zamindar. It was given to Ceylon. In 1974 Indira Gandhi wanted to help her friend Mrs. Bandaranayke. Tamil Nadu leaders and also the Tamil Nadu fishermen, who traditionally fished around the island felt cheated, opposed this.

The fisherman issue has a history of its own. The agreements signed with Sri Lanka on June 28,1974, March 23, 1976, July 31, 1976 and November 22,1976 not only fixed the maritime boundary between India and Sri Lanka but also fixed all other related matters like fishing and exploitation of marine resources. Unfortunately on the issue of fishing confusion still prevails with claims and counterclaims fro both sides of Palk Straits. Although it had been settled four decades ago by the Sirimao-Indira pact, the two major political parties – DMK and the AIADMK – as also the other Dravidian parties raise it now and then when Colombo strictly enforces its authority over the island by arresting the Tamil Nadu fishermen who poach on their waters. Tempers are rising after Prime Minister Mr. Wickremesinghe, told a local news channel last week 'If someone tries to break into my house, I can shoot. If he gets killed, law allows me to do that.' Obviously Wickremesinghe might have taken a hard line in view of the ensuing elections in Lanka. But Tamil Nadu political parties are up in arms

The other issue is the return of the Sri Lankan Tamil refugees and the government of India is talking to Colombo on the return of about 100,000 refugees living in the southern state of Tamil Nadu.

Sri Lanka watchers believe that the Modi visit would improve the ties between the two countries. But all these depend on the outcome of the ensuing elections in Sri Lanka where the political parties are keeping their fingers crossed. Unless a stable government emerges, the future cannot be guaranteed. (IPA Service)