No less sanguine on prospects of political change even otherwise - given the anti-incumbency factor and issues of corruption and law and order - are the smaller Dravidian outfits, a divided Congress and a more ambitious BJP with its eye on power. The Assembly elections due May 2016 have triggered expectations for parties but none of them has come out for any alliance as yet.

The outcome on Ms. Jayalalithaa's appeal against her conviction and sentence, heard over three months and orders reserved on March 11, by Mr Justice C R Kumaraswamy, who chaired a Special Bench of Karnataka High Court, would undoubtedly have a dramatic impact on T N politics.

There is an air of suspense as the orders of the Special Bench, which concluded hearings within the time-frame set by the Supreme Court, are likely to be made known soon. The apex court had extended bail for Ms. Jayalalithaa, who had stepped down from Chief Ministership after her conviction and sentence in September 2014.

For Ms. Jayalalithaa, unlike her arch-rival Mr Karunanidhi, architect of DMK, it had been roses all the way since 2011 Assembly elections when she inflicted a humiliating defeat on DMK, and later broke records by bagging 37 out of 39 T N seats in the May 2014 Lok Sabha poll.

Her popularity had not taken a plunge as was evident in her party nominee winning the Srirangam byelection in January this year with a margin of 96,000 votes over the DMK rival. However, Mr Karunanidhi saw in the 55,000 votes polled by his partyman a signal of possible revival of DMK's fortunes.

Undaunted by DMK's own baggage of ongoing cases of alleged corruption involving its leading lights including Mr A Raja, former Telecom Minister, Mr Karunanidhi has recharged himself to sustain the relevance of DMK as the premier Dravidian party of the last fifty years.

Airing his views on contentious issues, the DMK leader has distanced himself from the Modi Government policies, especially on issues of religion and land acquisition policy with an endorsement of Anna Hazare's stand in this regard. He has called for farmers to rally behind this agitation and attacked the AIADMK for its 'double standard', first opposing and later voting for NDA Government's land bill in Lok Sabha.

Ms. Jayalalitha, confining herself to her residence, has been mainly providing guidance to her partymen including Ministers. But she joined issue with Mr Karunanidhi over his charge and said her party extended its support after its suggestion for dropping the move to relax conditions for private hospitals and private educational institutions was accepted. Also, the proposed Act recognised states as equal stake-holders with powers due to them.

All parties in Tamil Nadu other than AIADMK and BJP are in line with DMK stand on safeguarding the rights of farmers. Mr Karunanidhi seeks to rebuild the party's political space on such issues and on protests against the proposed building of check dams on Cauvery by the Karnataka Government for which a state-wide bandh has been called for March 28.

Mr Karunanidhi has declared that the future of his party is with his younger son, Mr M K Stalin, without nominating him directly as successor, after years of family quarrels leading to expulsion from the party of his contending elder son and a former Union Minister r M K Alagiri. Mr Stalin has been trying to galvanise the party for the 2016 elections.

The other Dravidian parties like PMK of Dr Ramadoss, MDMK of Mr Vaiko and DMDK of Capt. Vijay Kant are virtually no longer in the BJP-led alliance in the Lok Sabha elections. PMK, which wishes to remain away from both Dravidian majors, has named Mr Anbumani Ramadoss MP to head the party in the forthcoming state elections.

The T N Congress remains as divided as before and while Mr G K Vasan has revived the Tamil Manila Congress, the TNCC President Mr E V K S Elangovan has had serious differences with former Finance Minister Mr P Chidambaram and there are no signs of an enduring patch-up and Congress becoming a cohesive force capable of giving a fight in Elections.

On the other hand, buoyed by the Modi wave in the rest of India, BJP in Tamil Nadu is very much alive to assert its political role disproportionate to its representation at the state or central levels. It could get only a single seat in the Lok Sabha elections. But BJP's National President Mr Amit Shah points to the ongoing membership drive making significant progress in Tamil Nadu and hopes to make it a ruling party.

Mr Shah contended that Tamil Nadu topped the list in electoral malpractices though he did not make any reference to AIADMK which has come under allegations from other state-level parties for corruption and cash flows in the Srirangam bypoll.

Amid a deterioration of law and order in some southern districts and charges of corruption hurled against it including bribes for postings and transfers of officials, the AIADMK Government, for all the popularity that 'Amma' enjoys still, would have to repair damage to its reputation.

The case of suicide by an agricultural department engineer in the South on February 20, who flung himself before a running train, has assumed serious proportions with all parties calling for the arrest of the Agriculture Minister who had allegedly been involved in putting pressure on the engineer through his staff for certain appointments. .

Ms. Jayalalithaa, sensing trouble, had called for the resignation of the Minister Mr S S Krishnamurti but the opposition is demanding his arrest as well as a CBI probe into the murky episode. Mr Jayalalithaa has also over recent weeks tried to tone up the party by sacking several cadres due to misdeeds or anti-party activists.

Notwithstanding all welfare schemes and programmes which have proved popular with large sections, the AIADMK would also be held to account for the prolonged power crisis and its inability to end power shutdowns within a year, as promised in 2011. There is also a looming water shortage in the state.

These are still early days for any political alliance to begin to surface to confront AIADMK nor is it clear at present what kind of relationship would evolve between Ms. Jayalalithaa's party and the NDA Government in the run-up to the 2016 assembly elections. So far, BJP leaders like Mr Arun Jaitley have met her and sought the party's support to key legislative enactments..

Some of the other smaller state level parties like VCK of Mr Thirumavalavan hope all secular parties besides the Left would come together on an anti-Hindutva platform as a precursor to broader electoral alliance next year. (IPA Service)