The attack of the new party leaders will be on what they call “Modi government’s failure to meet the aspirations of the people”. They say not a single election promise has been fulfilled. “We have come together to defeat the communal designs of the BJP government and provide a national secular alternative to the country”, said Mulayam Singh.

Despite the present optimism, sharp differences persist among the constituents of the new party. Though they are now united, one wonders how long Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his bête noir Lalu Prasad may be able to pull on since contentious issues remain between the two. Similarly, supporters of Mulayam Singh believe that there was little to gain from this alliance in Uttar Pradesh. Even Mulayam’s brother Ram Gopal Yadav and son Akhilesh were not in favour of the merger.

Personal differences among leaders who head these outfits—SP, JD(U), RJD and others—which at time got accentuated on account of ideological differences, were behind each of the numerous splits the Janata family suffered after its formation in the late 1980s under Vishwanath Pratap Singh. Today after several such separations, six of them have announced a formal merger, a sign that they have been able to bury political differences and unite for a cause to counter the forces marshaled by the BJP and occupy the space being vacated by the Congress.

Aware of intense disbelieve that these leaders can still do business, Mulayam Singh, the newly anointed chief of the new party, noted: “It’s a historic decision, we have united and we assure the people that this will be a strong bond….we will be a strong bond—we will respect the feelings of the people…”

After Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad joined hands last year to get the better of the BJP in the assembly bye elections, there is no doubt that Bihar assembly elections due later this year will be the first battle ground of the new party. Going by 2010 assembly polls, both these parties accounted for slightly over 40 per cent vote share as compared to 16.40 per cent. If one adds 6.74 per cent of the Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan, now with the BJP, the vote share goes to 24 per cent.

However, in 2010 the JD(U) was in alliance with the BJP, which has a significant sway over upper castes. The Janata Parivar could count for support from the Congress and the Left Parties, at least, in pockets which would add to its inherit strength of Backward Castes consolidation.

Though bereft of a vision, the merged parties are shrewd enough to realize that individually they will lose. Collectively, they have a chance to stop the BJP, which excels in campaigning, has money power and a talent for fomenting communal trouble. The unity against this powerful common enemy, however, can be fragile if past failures of non-Congress, non-BJP experiments are any indication. While top leaders of the merging parties will find a respectable place in the yet-to-be-named outfit, second rung leaders may get marginalized as the number of posts available to them may shrink. It may not be a smooth, easily acceptable, win-win situation.

The policies these regional parties follow, while in power, are pro-poor, pro-backward, pro-lower castes, and pro-village in sharp contrast to those of the BJP, which is projected as pro-rich, pro-business, pro-high castes and pro-cities. Since the Congress shuttles between being socialist at the time of elections and hesitantly market-friendly when in government, and also because there is no significant clash of political interest between them., there can be some sort of understanding between the Janata combine and the Congress.

How effective and acceptable the Janata Parivar is, will be tested later this year in Bihar assembly elections. For the first time, the BJP will contest the Bihar elections on its own without a largely acceptable Chief Ministerial candidate. The outcome may have a bearing on the second test to be held in Uttar Pradesh . next year. If two major states choose to stay away from the BJP, Modi’s long-term political ambition could be jeopardized. (IPA Service)