Mr Justice C R Kumaraswamy heading the Special Bench is due to pronounce judgement by May 12, the date fixed by the Supreme Court while extending the bail granted to Ms. Jayalalithaa and three others accused in the disproportionate wealth case.

Ms. Jayalalithaa had to step down from office of Chief Minister of the ruling AIADMK Government in September 2014 in the wake of a special court convicting her and sentencing a four year rigorous imprisonment. Later, the Supreme Court granted her bail for the duration of hearing and verdict on her appeal by a special bench of Karnataka High Court.

Mr M Karunanidhi's DMK, which had moved courts against alleged accumulation of wealth by Ms. Jayalalithaa while in office during the l990s, now hopes, perhaps vainly, that the prolonged legal battle it waged, would turn in its favour to change the dynamics and thus bring AIADMK's dominance to end.

More than the DMK, which had suffered humiliating reverses in the 2011 Assembly and 2014 Lok Sabha elections with Ms. Jayalalithaa riding a popular wave, it is the BJP, a non-entity in Tamil Nadu until 2014, that has galvanised itself for power grab in 2016. Claiming enrolment of forty lakh new members and raised cadre strength, it looks for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to enter the scene at an appropriate moment and clinch victory.

The Congress, out of power in Tamil Nadu, for five decades when it played second fiddle to one or the other of the Dravidian parties, remains as divided as ever with feeble efforts thus far to unite warring groups. The TNCC President Mr EVKS Elangovan, however, strikes a posture of confidence of providing a solid front in 2016 and returning Congress to power next year.

The Vasan group which has revived the Tamil Manila Congress originally formed in 1996 to restore ‘Kamraj rule” in the State (as in 1967), is at present in a neutral position in the midst of political controversies.

Mr Karunanidhi, whose DMK led an alliance with Congress and left parties in 2004 and helped promote UPA, coming to power at the Centre, lost his hold on the state in 2011. DMK had fared badly since with corruption charges foisted on some of the party leaders. At 91, Mr Karunanidhi has virtually anointed his younger son Mr M K Stalin to lead the next electoral battle.

But the DMK supremo seems convinced, irrespective of the outcome in the Jaya verdict, that only an alliance of like-minded parties, both Dravidian and other secular parties, can 'save the State' in 2016, the additional factor apparently in his mind being a likely onslaught planned by BJP .

The Modi Government's policies, economic and social, especially land acquisition and continued majoritarian assertions of BJP outfits, have been roundly condemned by not only the Congress and DMK but also the parties which had aligned with BJP at the time of Lok Sabha election last year. The land acquisition legislation has led to calls for state-wide agitation by these parties.

MDMK's Mr Vaiko was the first to break ranks, followed by PMK of Dr Ramadoss, who has sharply differed with several economic policies of the Modi Government. Further, PMK has named his son, Mr Anbumani Ramadoss, as Chief Ministerial candidate in 2016.

On the other hand, the DMDK leader Captain Vijayakanth, though still within BJP-led alliance, has his own ambitions for heading the next Government in the State. He might thus like to continue with the alliance on his terms, whatever the BJP calculations may be.

Meanwhile, Capt. Vijayakanth had taken the initiative of taking an all-party T N delegation to meet Prime Minister Modi and present a list of issues that are of concern to people of the state including the Karnataka moves to build a dam across Cauvery. He managed to get Congress and DMK representatives also join the delegation.

Cap. Vijayakanth later was subjected to severe criticism by other parties for his private meetings with NDA Ministers after the joint call on Prime Minister. Mr Modi has, however, been non-committal on the new Cauvery dam issue. The Karnataka Chief Minister had also met Mr Modi to place his point of view after a letter from AIADMK Chief Minister urging the move to be dropped.

The AIADMK Government has drawn flak from other parties for deferring a Global Investors Summit twice in the hope of their leader Ms. Jayalalithaa being freed from the case and able to preside over the Summit. The rating of the AIADMK Government has suffered somewhat in a recent opinion poll.

Capt. Vijayakanth’s DMDK has a well-established electoral base and could become the leading opposition after the 2011 assembly elections, relegating DMK to the second place. However, eight of his MLAs later joined the ruling AIADMK.

Mr Karunanidhi was happy when Capt. Vijayakanth called on him to request for DMK participation in the delegation to PM. But there have been no moves for any alliance from any party so far though Mr Karunanidhi has indicated his party's readiness to enter an electoral pact as the only hope for defeating AIADMK in the next elections.

The AIADMK Government itself has run into problems of abuse of power and corruption on part of some of its Ministers. On the advice of Ms. Jayalalithaa, the Minister in charge of Agriculture Mr S S Krishnamurti was dropped but there was a public outcry over the suicide of an agriculture engineer, who was reportedly under pressure from the Minister's office for certain postings and other transactions.

All the opposition parties have demanded a CBI probe into this episode. State BJP leaders are also critical of AIADMK. Ms. Jayalalithaa herself had issued statements critical of the Modi Government budget as well as recent increase in petroleum product prices. As of now, AIADMK is on its own though overwhelmingly strong in the Assembly. The verdict on the AIADMK supremo would have a major impact on the evolution of politics in Tamil Nadu in the run-up to the Assembly elections in 2016.

DMK led by Mr Stalin is actively moving the cadres to get ready for the election, not ruling out the possibility of a poll ahead of May 2016. Mr Elangovan and other state Congress leaders presented to the Governor of Tamil Nadu Mr K Rosaiah, a memorandum of allegations of corruption against the AIADMK Government. (IPA Service)