But has the crisis that bedevilled the relations between the Congress and the JD(U) really blown over? The answer to the question has to be in the negative, given the ground realities.

True, the Congress has succeeded in buying short-term peace with the JDU(U) by conceding most of its demands. JD(U)’s most important demand was action against the Congress leaders responsible for the defeat of JD(U) leader, M. P. Veerendra Kumar from Palakkad Lok Sabha constituency. The Chief Minister is learnt to have agreed to implement the report prepared by a Congress sub-committee which probed the Palakkad debacle. The committee had blamed a few Congress leaders from Palakkad for the humiliating loss suffered by Veerendra Kumar in the LS poll. Kumar has insisted on action against the ‘guilty’ Congress leaders, and the Chief Minister has assured him of action within the next few days. KPCC president, V. M. Sudheeran is also learnt to have agreed on the need to take action against the guilty Congress leaders.

Among the other demands of the JD(U) are a Rajya Sabha seat, safe seats in the next assembly elections due in May 2016 and more representation in the local bodies. In the last assembly elections, the JD(U) had been allotted seats which were totally ‘unwinnable’.

But the crunch will come when the national leadership of the Janata Parivar will take a decision on whether the JD(U) should remain a constituent of the UDF in Kerala or align with the Left parties. A few national leaders of the Parivar have openly said that the JD(U) is a natural ally of the Left.

The ‘agreement’ reached between the Congress and the JD(U) in Kerala will come under severe strain should the national leadership of the Parivar decide to align itself with the Left. In that case the Kerala unit of the JD(U) will have no option but to cross over to the CPI()M)-led Left Democratic Front(LDF).

Veerendra kumar himself has hinted at the possibility of leaving the UDF in view of the changed political situation following the assumption of the Narendra Modi-led NDA Government at the Centre. Battling the communal forces was more important than remaining a partner in the UDF in Kerala, Kumar said, creating virtual panic in the Congress camp.

Also, the circumstances under which the Socialist Janata(Democratic) led by Veerendra Kumar – it subsequently merged in the Janata Parivar christened JD(U) - left the LDF, no longer obtain. There has been a sea-change in the Kerala political situation with a new leader taking over the leadership of the CPI(M) in the state. Kumar had left the LDF in protest against the high and mighty attitude of the State secretary, Pinarayi Vijayan. Vijayan is no more the helmsman in the Kerala CPI(M) though he still wields considerable influence. The new CPI(M) State secretary, Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, has a better equation with Kumar and other JD(U) leaders. Therefore, the JD(U)’s cross-over to the LDF is only a matter of time. So goes the argument.
That is exactly why the UDF leaders have stepped up efforts to placate Veerendra Kumar. After all, the support of the JD(U) is crucial for the survival of the UDF Government in Kerala. The party has two MLAs; and if it aligns itself with the left, the UDF will be teetering on the brink with a wafer-thin majority of 71. The declaration by KC(M) leader P. C. George that there is no guarantee he would continue to vote for the UDF in the future, has added to the unease in the UDF camp.

This being the ground reality, the Congress leaders are skating on thin ice when they claim that the differences with the JD(U) have been resolved for good. The crisis could erupt afresh when the national JD(U) leadership announces its decision on the party’s future course of action. If the JD(U)’s national leadership decides to align itself with the left parties, the UDF Government in Kerala will be virtually peering into the abyss. (IPA Service)