Lalu turning hostile primarily owed to the failure of Nitish to keep his promise made to him. Lalu had extended support with a rider; Nitish must not include Lalan Singh and P K Shahi into the cabinet, as these two individuals were responsible for Lalu going to jails in the fodder scam and being debarred from holding government office. But Nitish did not keep the promise.

This issue strained their relation to such an extent that Lalu did not attend the swearing in ceremony and stayed back in Saifi, Mulayam’s village. Mulayam also did not endorse Nitish’s political maneouverings. Both the yadav chieftains have been waiting for the right time to strike and nothing could have been best than the launching of the unified Janata Parivar which would have ensured not only the political survival of Nitish but also boosted his political stature at the national level.

Lalu can manage his stature and image of being a towering leader committed to social justice even if BJP is in power in the state. But with Nitish in saddles, he would be faced with the possible threat of political isolation and marginalization which Lalu would never cherish.

The fact is Lalu is scared of the emergence of Nitish Kumar as the alternative to Modi. The manner he delayed the formation of the unified Janata Parivar with the tacit support of Mulayam and later development of Mulayam conveying the message to Nitish to go to the polls on his own strength, underlines the deep rooted mistrust nursed by Lalu.

It is not that Nitish is unaware of the machination of both the yadav leaders. This was the reason that on May 18, Nitish literally asked Mulayam to clarify his stand on merger move and also call a meeting of all six janata parivar constituents and explain the nature of the “technical hitch”. He also asked him to make it public if there were some other reasons and elements responsible for abandoning the merger move.

On his part Lalu was also not willing to accept this body language of threat. Within 48 hours of Nitish’s assertion, Lalu invited former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi to join the Janata Parivar. Lalu extended the invitation even after knowing fact that Manjhi has sworn to ensure the defeat of Nitish and to accomplish the task he was even ready to join hands with the devil. Interestingly instead of responding to Nitish’s request and clarifying the reasons for abandoning the merger move, Lalu has been resorting to gimmicks. Through this he intended to convey that there was nothing wrong with the merger process as is being said or made out by Nitish.

The message from Lalu to Nitish is clear and loud: — ‘accept me as the leader or go to hell’. If Nitish refuses to accept him as his leader, Lalu will resort to all possible tactics to ensure defeat of Nitish. In fact in modern developing and growing Bihar, Nitish’s biggest enemy and challenger is not the BJP, instead it is his old comrade and big brother Lalu Yadav. Supported by Mulayam, he had already launched the mission to cut Nitish to size.

Some socialists close to Lalu nurse the impression that fall of Nitish will bring good future for Lalu. A discredited Lalu, synonym of Jungle Raj could not aspire to claim the trust of a common Bihar people with Nitish around. He can present himself as the alternative to BJP when Nitish is not in the picture. Lalu in fact has been working on this political line. But what is really painful is, even major chunk of his own caste men, the yadavs, are not willing to repose their faith in him. These yadavs belong to the creamy lawyer section of the caste and are closer to the upper caste people in their social and cultural approach. Though yadavs constitute 15 per cent of the population, this section constitute 7 per cent of the total yadav population.

Politics is the art of managing the contradictions and anything can happen at any stage. May be Lalu and Nitish succeed in patching up their differences just ahead of the elections. But one thing is certain that the recent development has shaken the trust and confidence level of Nitish. Lalu and Nitish along with the Congress may claim to represent 45 per cent of votes as per the 2014 Lok Sabha elections data. The fact of the matter is the baggage both political groups carry is so heavy that prevents them from moving forward together. These differences have got their manifestation in the form of bickering over seat sharing. These differences have finally forced the RJD chief to rule out a full JD(U)-RJD merger ahead of the Bihar elections. Nitish who tried hard to cobble up a unified forum of the six parties born out of the erstwhile Janata Dal, is now literally wondering whether he was politically correct. Lalu has been too harsh to rebut his claim of unity of the socialist forces.

While the election to the Bihar assembly is crucial for the political survival of the Bihar chief minister, Nitish Kumar, it will redefine the contour of Narendra Modi’s politics but most importantly it would decide the relevance and character of the socialist secular political forces and their ideology. No doubt both Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar have high stakes in the ensuing election but the quotient of the stake is much higher for Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav claiming to represent these forces.

Defeat of the BJP in Delhi assembly elections had questioned the rationale and intensity of the Modi wave but a defeat in Bihar would pull down the superstructure of the Modi edifice built on the foundation of his mythical personality. This would be the most disastrous consequence. If Nitish is scared of the impending threat, Modi and the BJP chief Amit Shah are equally conscious of the challenges. The canvas of the war could be understood from the simple fact that in its desperation to reach out to the mahadalits and OBCs, the BJP has launched the programme to grab Ambedkar and Karpoori Thakur and even embrace their politics and ideologies.

Even the RSS has put its might and resources behind the BJP. Realising that Modi magic now no more works, it is set to play a very critical role in strategising the upcoming Bihar elections. Recently senior RSS leader Dattatrey Hosbole had called a meeting of RSS functionaries to chalk out the strategy. It does not want repeat of the Delhi performance in Bihar.

It is not that Nitish is not aware of the depth and intensity of dislike the BJP leadership nurses against him. He knows that the BJP has been waiting for the right moment to take revenge. Shah must have been fantasising Nitish on his kneel before him. To be fair enough to Nitish his miseries and problems have been aggravated by his old comrades, Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Nevertheless Nitish has been getting ready to take the bulls head on. (IPA Service)