The coming together of Janata splinter groups last year was triggered by BJP’s meteoric rise in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The calculation was simple—if the anti-BJP vote consolidates, it should be able to stifle the Modi wave. As a test case, the RJD-JD(U)—Congress alliance won six out of ten seats up for grabs in Bihar assembly bye elections last year. But arithmetical calculations alone can’t be the basis of a successful alliance.

Over the years, both RJD’s and JD(U)’s politics has been defined by opposition to each other. In fact, Nitish rode to power in Bihar precisely because of his pledge to roll back the “jungle raj” experienced during Lalu Prasad’s regime.

For Nitish to be seen now sharing the same platform as Lalu will hurt the former’s pro-development image. Similarly, it is difficult to see RJD’s core Yadav vote base consolidate behind Nitish. Added to this, collectively the Janata factions have yet to evolve a constructive political agenda. Opposing BJP cannot provide the ideological cement to bind so many disparate leaders with their own egos and parties with differing agendas.

Also the old rivalry between Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar has resurfaced. Lalu’s overtures to Jitan Ram Manjhi—who created difficulties for Nitish Kumar by letting go of the chief minister’s office—to join the alliance have made the matter worse.

What are the implications of this for the coming Bihar elections? The main issue is that Lalu and Nitish have their own turfs to defend, with the BJP threatening to chisel away at both. When Nitish was the chief minister, he had raised 21 of 22 Dalits castes to ‘Mahadalits’ status, leaving out only the Dosadhs, to which Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan belongs. When he was CM, Manjhi roped in the Dosadhs also as Mahadalits, thus reinforcing his image as a Dalit Messiah. But herein lies the dilemma. The BJP has already Paswan as its ally. In the event of its winning over Manjhi also, it would have secured its Dalit base. Here, Nitish, who has development and law-and-order plank on his side, has a difficult problem in hand. Lalu has to keep his flock together and expand his support base, given the fact that he is still serving a jail-term, though he is now out on bail.

The best option for Bihar group would be resolve the chief ministerial issue amicably. The RJD should not forget that it supported Nitish in the trail of strength after the Manjhi fiasco. They will suffer badly if they continue to work at cross purpose.

Meanwhile, a meeting between Manjhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi fuelled speculation of an alliance between BJP and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) to tap Mahadalit votes in the coming assembly elections. According to insiders the BJP was just exploring the possibilities, and that it might not form an alliance with Manjhi’s party. During the meeting with PM, Manjhi sought 50 seats for HAM which is in process of becoming a political party. He initially demanded 70 seats for his party.

Even as Manjhi did not get a solid assurance from the PM and merely said he had some “political talk” , the former CM appeared optimistic. The HAM spokesman said “our discussion with BJP is very positive”. According to BJP, Manjhi met the prime minister and talked about the failure of Nitish Kumar’s government. He wanted to demonstrate that the Bihar Government was not functioning. Manjhi also brought up the issue of NDA’s prospective chief ministerial candidate in Bihar. He was told it was too early to discuss this issue.

Although BJP leaders admit that Manjhi joining hands with NDA can help tap Mahadalit votes – considered to be 12-13 per cent of the state’s total population, a large section of the BJP look at him as an “unreliable” ally. At the same, time Manjhi had already send feelers to RJD and its leader Lalu Prasad, whose response was largely positive. The former Bihar CM has reportedly said he was ready to be partner of any formation that does not include Nitish Kumar. (IPA Service)