An indication that it may have already started doing so was available during the Bihar by-elections in August last year when the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-Janata Dal (United) combine won six of the 10 seats which it contested with the BJP winning the other four.

This turnaround in the RJD-Janata Dal (United)’s favour underlined a dramatic change in the mood of the voters from the time of the general election in May, 2014, when the BJP won 22 of the 40 parliamentary seats and its allies, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) won six and the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) three. Of the remaining nine seats, RJD won seven and the Janata Dal (United) two.

A continuation of the by-election trend will be politically fatal for the Modi government. As it is, the government is under threat from a rejuvenated Rahul Gandhi with his ceaseless focus on all those who have a grievance – farmers, ex-servicemen, middle class householders, Kerala fishermen, West Bengal jute workers, NGOs, et al. A setback for the BJP in Bihar will enable the Rahul to step up his offensive with greater zeal.

For Modi, the failure to beat his “secular” opponents will confirm that the belief that nothing is happening on the development front is not without substance. It is not only the anti-BJP groups which will be enthused.

Even those in the saffron brotherhood, who believe that Modi is ignoring the “core” Hindutva issues on the plea that the party lacks the numbers in parliament, as BJP president Amit Shah has said, will redouble their criticism of the government on the lines of what BJP M.P.s Vinay Katiyar and Sakshi Maharaj, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Shiv Sena have already done on the Ram temple issue.

Bihar, therefore, presents a must-win situation for Modi. It is only a clear victory over the RJD, Janata Dal (United) and others which will enable the prime minister to put the Delhi debacle behind him and focus with greater intensity on the unfulfilled economic agenda.

The BJP’s only hope is that the old enmity between the RJD’s Laloo Yadav and the Janata Dal (United)’s Nitish Kumar will ultimately scuttle their present last-minute attempts to put up a united front.

Earlier, the differences between the two had temporarily receded into the background in the wake of the attempts to cobble together a so-called Janata “parivar” comprising some of the remnants of the old Janata Party of 1977 and the Janata Dal of 1989.

But, the familiar fractiousness of the backward caste stalwarts has ensured that the proposed new party under Mulayam Singh Yadav’s leadership will not be formed any time soon.

The first spokes in its wheel were inserted by the Samajwadi Party’s Ram Gopal Yadav who argued that his party will suffer more than the others by merging its identity in the new outfit. It will be a “death warrant” for the Samajwadi Party, he said.

However, an informal alliance can still take to the air if the RJD and the Janata Dal (United) can reach a seat-sharing arrangement, for which a committee is being set up. But, the real bump on the road will be the question of who of the two former chief ministers will be the chief minister if and when their parties can reach the finishing line before the BJP.

While the latter has conceded that the Janata “parivar” will pose a major challenge, it must be hoping against hope that the old differences between Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar cannot be kept suppressed for too long. It is this possibility which made the Congress try to get a foot in the secular door even if it is a fading force in the state.

The first shot was fired by Rahul Gandhi who expressed his preference for an alliance of his party with the Janata Dal (United) rather than with the RJD. It may be recalled that the Congress’s crown prince had torn up an ordinance brought by his own party’s government in 2013 which intended to save Lalu Yadav by negating a Supreme Court order on disqualifying convicted legislators.

Although the RJD leader has been a longstanding supporter of the Congress, and particularly of Sonia Gandhi since he stood by her all along”, her son is apparently put off by Lalu Yadav’s unflattering image because of the fodder scam.

It is too early say whether Rahul Gandhi will have his way or whether the RJD and the Janata Dal (United) will remain together in the foreseeable future. But, for both the BJP and its adversaries, the Bihar polls will be a life-and-death affair, as the LJP’s Ram Vilas Paswan has said. (IPA Service)