It is not that New Delhi was reluctant to talk to insurgents. Enough exercises were done over the years including signing of peace accords and extending it over periods of time. The National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), one of the group that claimed responsibility for the June 4 deadly attack on the Indian Army, had unilaterally abrogated the ceasefire agreement in March 2015 and joined the umbrella organization, United National Liberation Front of West South East Asia (UNLFW) alongwith United Liberation Front of Assam-Independent (ULFA-I), Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), Kanglei Yawol Kunna Lup (KYKL), People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PRPK), People’s Liberation Army (PLA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Songbijit (NDFB-S).

On June 4, insurgents ambushed and killed 18 members of 6 Dogra Regiment who were patrolling on Tengnoupal-New Samtal Road in Chandel district in Manipur, about 15 km from Myanmar border. Apart from NSCN-K, KCP and KYKL have so far claimed the responsibility for the attack from across the border.

This deadly attack provoked a retaliation by the Indian Army on June 9 through surgical attacks against the known bases of the insurgents located across the border at two points. The National Security Advisor Ajit Doval who was scheduled to accompany Prime Minister Modi on his two-day Bangladesh visit on June 6 preferred to stay back. The Army Chief Dalbir Singh Suhag dropped his UK tour.

The hot pursuit seems to be well calibrated and based on intelligence reports. “In the course of the last few days, credible and specific intelligence was received about further attacks that were being planned within our territory,” a statement issued by the Indian Army on the day of retaliation said.

Based on intelligence reports, the Indian Army tactically engaged the militants at two points along the Nagaland and Manipur borders. The statement, however, did not give the number of casualties, but said “significant casualties have been inflicted on them.” It also claimed “threats to our civilian population and security forces were averted.”

But the possibility of further attacks by insurgents from across the border is not yet over. Their base camps still remain in tact on the other side of the border. Several reports are being circulated about the death toll of insurgents, some say 20, some 50, some several injured. But this is not the issue for discussion till all the base camps are eliminated and insurgent activities against India do not take place from Myanmar soil.

The matter definitely needs to be taken up with the Myanmar government at a diplomatic level to find an ultimate solution. However, some politicians of the ruling party including the Minister of State Rajyavardhan Rathore, went overboard in praise for the operation that invited backlash from Myanmar and Pakistan.

Compulsions of Myanmar denying any operation by the Indian Army on its soil is understandable. It is a sovereign country and any such call for hot pursuit on its soil by a foreign country would not be viewed desirable and can cause problems particularly at a time when the country is going for polls this year.

Myanmar also has its own problems. There are areas along its borders with India where the government is unable to exercise its control. Myanmar has signed a peace accord with NSCN-K in April 2012. There are reports about Indian intelligence intercepting talks between Chinese PLA officers and Khaplang and the Chinese pressuring Myanmar for entering into a peace accord with NSCN-K. Having signed peace accord with the NSCN-K, Myanmar may not be willing to act against terror camps in North Sagaing region and Chin state, particularly when it is fighting with the Kokangg, Kachins and other rebel groups within its own territory.

The United Wa State Army has declared its own Wa State Government Special Administrative Region within Myanmar from January 1, 2009 and is completely under Chinese influence. Insurgents operating against India procure arms and ammunitions from the Wa State.An arms factory has been set up in this area. However, Myanmar government has not yet recognised this Wa State.

There is also a significant change in the strategy adopted by the insurgents operating against India. Earlier each ethnic insurgent group had their traditional points of operations close to the ethnic population it claims to represent. NSCN-K did not operate along the Manipur border, it operated along Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland border. But the Coordination Committee of the umbrella organisation of six insurgent groups in Manipur, namely KCP, KYKL, People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), Revolutionary People’s Front (RPF), United National Liberation Front (UNLF) and United People’s Party of Kangleipak (UPPK) has given NSCN-K the venue for its recent operation along Manipur border. Thus coming together of different splinter insurgent groups in joint operation against is a new threat that New Delhi needs to tackle with care.

NSCN had suffered a split in January 1980 into two factions – NSCN-K and NSCN-Isak-Muivah. After this split NSCN-K drew its support from Konyak, Aao, Angami and other Naga tribes in Nagaland and Manipur apart from Nagas in Myanmar from where Khaplang hails. NSCN-K suffered further split in 2010 when some Konyaks and Semas walked out and formed NSCN-Kole-Kitovi. Again in March 2015 Khaplang’s fellow traveler broke away and formed NSCS (Reformation). Thus the insurgent organization became weaker and weaker with the passing days. Under such circumstances NSCN-K signed peace accord with the Myanmar government and joined the umbrella organization UNLFW and chose to operate from its new veneue along Manipur border with the help of the Coordination Committee of six insurgent organizations.

To put an end to cross border insurgent attacks, India needs to seriously take up the issue with Myanmar. New Delhi should also understand Myanmar’s problems and constraints and work jointly to address the same. Myanmar too wants peace to prevail on its soil. It should be recalled that in April-May 1995 India’s Operation Golden Bird against terrorists moving from Bandar Ban in Chittagong and tracks along Myanmar border did not succeed due to lack of cooperation from the Myanmar Army. Let not be a repeat of the same. Myanmar must be taken on board to resolve the insurgent problem. For India’s Look East Policy to succeed there should be peace and tranquility at the border. (IPA Service)