Undoubtedly Shah was confident of overcoming the crisis. But one thing nevertheless was quite obvious that by the time the squabble is be settled, it would have not only strained the relations among the allies and their leaders, but it would have widened the chasm between the upper and backward caste and pit them against each other. The threat perception of being marginalized among the backward castes and dalits is so acute that they are not willing to even work together notwithstanding presenting the facade of being united and working for the success of the plans and programmes of their leader Narendra Modi.

With allies unilaterally staking claim to seats and refusing to work with each other, cracks have appeared in the NDA alliance. After the conclusion of its two day executive meet in Vaishali, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) declared that its leader Upendra Kushwaha, the Union Minister of State for Human Resource Development would be the chief ministerial candidate. Though a week back some of the RLSP leaders have put his name in the public domain, it was for the first time the party officially staked the claim.

The RLSP leadership unilaterally declared that it would contest 67 seats and allot 74 seats for Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party and 102 seats for the BJP. What was quite interesting was the RLSP meeting did not consider the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) of former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, the latest entrant to NDA, as a political entity. It did not allot a single seat to HAM.

Little doubt the RLSP leader would not muster courage to speak out and to stick to his ground at the time of actual process of seat sharing, but this development underlines existence of deep distrust amongst the allies. This is simply not the bargaining mechanism adopted by the RLSP leadership. It also tries to reiterate the importance of the party in the new concept and frame work of the social engineering. It was with this in mind the RLSP claimed that Kushwaha, an influential backward caste leader, could effectively counter both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad. The BJP termed the RLSP’s move as a “pressure tactic” to bargain for more number of seats.

NDA’s seasoned campaigner Ram Vilas Paswan is also against HAM nominating the five dissident JD(U) MLCs. Paswan’s brother Pashupati Paras, the state president of the LJP has made it categorically clear that it would oppose these five rebel JD(U) leaders. Interestingly only two days back, the LJP had welcomed Manjhi's outfit joining the NDA. The reason is as Ram Vilas Paswan pointed out Narendra had walked out of the LJP with a dozen MLAs in 2005 after the electorate had given a fractured mandate in assembly polls

Apparently the LJP welcomed Manjhi in the NDA, but he is aware of the fact that without these leaders, Manjhi cannot survive. He had built and floated his HAM based on their support. How in this backdrop could Manjhi agree to the illogical condition of Paswan? In fact the sources in the NDA confide that Paswan does not intend to give much space to Manjhi as this may deprive him of the stature of being the established dalit leader. Some BJP leaders have been viewing Manjhi as the new messiah of the dalits in Bihar. Some of them have even started comparing him with Mayawati. They nurse the view that the mahadalits constituting 15 per cent of Bihar population would rally behind Manjhi. Incidentally even a person like Jagjivan Ram, who embodied their aspiration even could not mobilize the support of the entire mahadalit population. Paswan emphasized, 'LJP is committed to maintaining social justice and we give a fair chance to every individual to pursue his goal'.

At a time when the BJP is pulling out all the stops to get its act together, this nature of bickering would certainly hamper its prospect. It is a fact that Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party joining the NDA just ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections had provided a new impetus to the BJP in Bihar. But their recent actions and bickering would undoubtedly erode its support base. It would upset the caste social engineering. Even when the RJD-Congress won only seven seats, and the JD(U) managed only two seats in 2014 Lok Sabha elections , they had polled together 45.6% of the votes, almost 7% more than the victorious NDA.

Though the BJP has big caste leaders, their support base is not so significant and effective. For winning the assembly elections, the BJP has to win over the Mahadalits and extremely backward castes (EBCs) that comprise about 24% of the votes. (IPA Service)